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NFL Week 1 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions (2024)

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One of the most fun NFL bets out there is the Anytime Touchdown (ATD) wager. You simply pick a player to score and collect when he crosses the goal line. For the record, only the player who scores is credited with a touchdown in this market. Quarterbacks do not get credit for passing touchdowns.

This market can be a volatile one, so price shopping across multiple sportsbooks is essential to maximizing profits. I will outline some examples below. Also, note that these prices are subject to change between now and Sunday kickoff. If a price dips significantly, there is a point at which it may become a stay-away. You need to hit 50 percent of +100 wagers to break even, whereas you need to hit 60 percent of -150 wagers to do so. Use your judgment before placing any wagers.

Because of the volatility involved, I would not go overboard in terms of exposure. I am going to track all of these as half-unit (0.5U) plays. 80 percent of the risk will be on a player's ATD bets. The other 20 percent will be on his First Touchdown (FTD) bets. For example, if my total bankroll is $2,000 and my unit size is $20, I would bet $8 on the ATD side and $2 on the FTD side. Adjust as you see fit based on your bankroll and personal limits. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week’s best bets.

Best NFL Week 1 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets

(All wagers are 0.5 units)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons

Justin Fields

Right off the bat, we get a glimpse at some major discrepancies in the marketplace. Justin Fields is rumored to start for the Pittsburgh Steelers due to Russell Wilson's calf injury. Some sportsbooks have pulled Fields' ATD completely off the board. FanDuel Sportsbook currently has Fields' ATD price at +270 and his First TD (FTD) odds at +1300. If and when he is named the starter, these prices will plummet. A +360 bet carries implied odds of 21.7 percent. In his career, Fields has 14 rushing touchdowns in 40 games, good for a 35 percent rate. His opponent on Sunday is the Atlanta Falcons. They allowed quarterbacks to rush for six scores last year (35.2 percent).

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones had a disappointing final season in Green Bay in 2023. The eighth-year pro scored just three touchdowns in 11 ballgames. He had scored a minimum of seven touchdowns in each of his previous five NFL seasons. I think he can approach that level of touchdown production again this year, now as a member of the Minnesota Vikings. He gets a favorable Week 1 matchup against a New York Giants squad that allowed running backs to rush for 16 scores last season. This prop is as low as +105 on FanDuel Sportsbook, so we are getting a very nice price on DraftKings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins

Tyreek Hill

This game should be a high-scoring affair with several players finding the end zone. However, my money is on Tyreek Hill, as he is a threat to score any time he touches the football. Hill scored in 11-of-16 games for the Miami Dolphins last season. Miami boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the league, and that should continue in 2024. Jacksonville has a decent secondary, but cornerback Ronald Darby tends to gamble and bite on double moves. That could spell disaster against Hill and don't think the man nicknamed "Cheetah" does not know that Xavier Worthy scored two touchdowns on Thursday in his NFL debut for Hill's former team in Kansas City. I think Hill finds a way to score at least once in this game.

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Andrei Iosivas

Sadly, this is one Week 1 ATD bet that has already been nerfed to a degree. When I wrote it up, this was +290 on BetRivers for ATD and +1700 on Fanatics for FTD. But with news that Tee Higgins is now doubtful for Sunday, in addition to the question marks surrounding the availability of Ja'Marr Chase, bettors have flocked toward Andrei Iosivas. Iosivas was very efficient in limited action last season. He was targeted with at least one pass in just nine games but scored in three of them. Iosivas should see the field quite a bit and might be Joe Burrow's favorite target on Sunday. I still think there is value at these prices, but I would probably hold off if this ends up anywhere near even money.

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen

I know I must sound like a broken record, but price shopping should always be of paramount importance. This Week 1 ATD bet is just another example. Josh Allen is listed at -105 at BetMGM to score a touchdown. The same bet on BetRivers Sportsbook is -186. If you use my hypothetical $8 bet price, an Allen touchdown would net you $7.62 on MGM but just $4.30 on BetRivers. Now increase the bet size by X amount, or run the same bet X number of times, and you begin to see what wild discrepancies can result from settling for any old price.

As for the bet itself, it is so difficult to bet against Josh Allen scoring a touchdown. I know it is not as sexy as some of the longer shots on the board, but Allen is just so consistent. And when Buffalo shifted to a more run-based offensive after a midseason change at offensive coordinator, Allen was the primary beneficiary. He ran for 11 scores in nine games (including playoffs) with Joe Brady calling the plays. Allen will face the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Arizona is expected to be one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season. Last year, they allowed five rushing scores to opposing quarterbacks.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Tank Dell

There is no shortage of ATD candidates in this game. The matchup between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts has major shootout potential. In a game with such a high implied total, give me an explosive player at a great price. Tank Dell checks both boxes for me. As a rookie last year, Dell scored in six of the 10 games in which he played. That included his first career NFL score which came against his Week 1 opponent this year, the Indianapolis Colts. Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud threw 20 touchdowns in 15 games played indoors last year, compared to only three scores in five outdoor games. Even with Houston having another mouth to feed in Stefon Diggs, I like the price for Tank Dell to score a touchdown here.

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears

Josh Whyle

My only true long shot Week 1 ATD bet, so hear me out.

I do not expect this year's version of the Chicago Bears defense to perform markedly differently from the way they did last year. In 2023, Chicago allowed 31 passing touchdowns compared to just eight scores on the ground. Seven of those touchdowns came from tight ends. The Titans announced recently that Chigoziem Okonkwo and Josh Whyle were the team's co-starters at tight end. This feels notable considering that Okonkwo played 692 snaps last year to Whyle's 156. Whyle caught 88 balls in college, and 15 of them went for touchdowns. The best part about this bet? Sunday is Josh Whyle's birthday! If that does not seal the deal, I do not know what will.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Taysom Hill

Taysom Hill is the Swiss army knife for the New Orleans Saints. Last season, Hill ran for four scores and caught two more. Reports have surfaced that the team plans on playing him at as many as five positions this year. Hill is likely to operate as the Saints’ short-yardage and goal-line running back. That means there is value in him to score a touchdown on Sunday. New Orleans will host the Carolina Panthers in Week 1. Carolina allowed 24 touchdowns to opposing running backs last season. Given that information, we are getting a reasonable price on Hill to score a touchdown either on the ground or through the air.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Davante Adams

Davante Adams was saddled with some horrible quarterback play last season and still managed to score eight touchdowns. Gardner Minshew may not be the best quarterback in the NFL, but he knows where his bread is buttered. Last season in Indianapolis, he targeted Michael Pittman Jr. 121 times in 12 starts. I expect Adams to earn a similar share of the targets for the Raiders this year. The Week 1 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers is not overly imposing. Their primary outside corners are Asante Samuel Jr. and Kristian Fulton. Samuel Jr. is questionable with a shoulder injury and Fulton was charged with Pro Football Focus' 15th-lowest coverage grade among 127 full-time cornerbacks last season.

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

Kenneth Walker III

This is a great matchup for Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III. The Denver Broncos allowed 18 touches and over 2,600 all-purpose yards to opposing running backs last year. Even with some expected improvement, this run defense is still very much a work in progress. Walker has carried the ball at least 10 times in 22 different games. He has scored 18 total touchdowns in those games. Thirteen of those touchdowns have come in 14 Seahawks victories. Seattle is a six-point favorite against the Broncos and rookie cornerback Bo Nix.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans

Mike Evans has been a touchdown-scoring machine throughout his decade-long NFL career, and even more so in recent years. Since 2020, Evans has scored 46 times in 64 regular-season games. Many expected a dropoff in production last year when Tampa Bay went from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield at quarterback. Still, Evans was as steady as ever, scoring 13 touchdowns in 2023. A Week 1 matchup with the Washington Commanders should allow Evans to get off on the right foot this season as well. The Commanders allowed 29 receiving scores to opposing wide receivers last season. That was the highest mark in the NFL.

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns

Amari Cooper

The matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Cleveland Browns pits two of the league's stingiest defenses against one another. I am going with Amari Cooper for my Week 1 Anytime Touchdown bet in this game. Cooper has had mixed results playing with Deshaun Watson in Cleveland, but he proved towards the end of last season that he can still be an elite wideout. It does not hurt that Dallas will be without cornerback DaRon Bland, who had nine interceptions last season. Trevon Diggs is also highly talented, but I like the odds of Cooper finding paydirt against his former team.

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