NFL Week 1 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2022)
The NFL regular season is just days away. That means bettors are in for one of the most exciting betting weekends of the year. Lines for opening day games were set by Vegas months ago, but there still continues to be significant movement as gameday approaches. Below we take a look at some of the most notable lines of Week 1 and their expected movement as kickoff approaches.
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Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams begin the defense of their Super Bowl championship with a home matchup against the current favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy. Los Angeles opened as one-point favorites, but they now find themselves 2.5-point underdogs. The number has not crossed the key number yet, and it seems likely it won’t. This is just speculation, but it feels like Vegas is trying to bait bettors to take Buffalo in Week 1, so don’t expect much movement here.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets
The Ravens opened as 4.5-point favorites, but the number has swelled to -7 since Zach Wilson’s injury. This number should continue to move in favor of Baltimore since they have been known to beat up on bad teams since Lamar Jackson took over as quarterback. However, the most interesting thing to note is that the total has barely moved. It opened at 45 and is now at 44.5. Look for this number to drop as the week progresses.
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers
Back when this line came out, there were numerous question marks at the quarterback position. Now, we know that Deshaun Watson will not be starting for the Browns, and Baker Mayfield will be starting for the Panthers against his old team. These two pieces of information have shifted the line 6.5 points in favor of Carolina. They’re currently favored by 2.5, just below the key number. It may seem like this is obviously going to blow past the key number, but do not be surprised to see late money come in on the visiting team that many feel is more complete than Carolina.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The defending AFC champions open up the season at home against a Steelers team that is expected to struggle this season. And yet, the Bengals are favored by less than a touchdown. This line hasn’t moved at all since it opened at -6.5, and it doesn’t seem like it’s going to. Putting this line right under the key number makes it seem like a juicy one for bettors. If Vegas likes the action they’re getting with this low-hanging fruit, then they won’t move this line at all before kickoff.
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
The Lions are getting the “Hard Knocks†bump, which has turned them into a betting darling. Their First Team offense looked decent in the preseason, but the First Team defense has a lot of work to do. Last year when these two teams met, the Eagles put up 44 on the Lions. This year, the total opened at 47, and it has since gone up to 49. Expect this number to rise throughout the week, possibly as high as 51.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
The final game of the week features Russell Wilson and his return to Seattle. Many are expecting the Broncos to be an instant contender with Wilson, while many are assuming the Seahawks will be one of the worst teams in the league. Though the line has moved three points in favor of Denver, the Broncos are still favored by less than a touchdown. There will likely be a point this week where the line hits the key number but look for late money to come in on Seattle, who is always tough to play at home.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.