NFL Week 1 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the NFL Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here, and there will be a running tally in future articles.
NFL Week 1 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
Odds: +900 via BetMGM
The Ravens are 10-point favorites at home this week, which makes them the likely side of the first TD scorer. Lamar Jackson is listed as low as +550 at some sportsbooks, so there is value here. It is also a strong play against this defense. The Texans added Jimmie Ward in the offseason, bolstered their secondary and used two top-five draft selections on Will Anderson Jr. and C.J. Stroud. Still, they struggled to get after the quarterback last season with 2.3 sacks per game, and while Anderson Jr. is talented, he still needs time to adjust to the speed at this level. The lack of pass-rush and value make Jackson an excellent play.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Odds: +550 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Falcons drafted Bijan Robinson with their first selection in this year's draft, and he should be involved heavily. The Falcons ran the ball on 55.29% of their plays last season, which ranked second behind the Bears. Selecting Robinson as the eighth-overall pick should indicate that they intend to run the ball. Robinson had a dominant career at Texas, which should translate to the NFL. He has excellent vision and explodes through running lanes. He is an elite running back, and it should not take long for the world to see it.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Odds: +1050 via PointsBet
Joe Burrow is ready for Week 1 behind his new tackle, Orlando Brown. The offensive line has a tough matchup against Myles Garrett and company. The Browns also added Za'Darius Smith, who will bring an added pass rusher to a team that only averaged two sacks per game last season. Denzel Ward returned to practice on Wednesday and appears ready to suit up on Sunday. He will likely guard Ja'Marr Chase, which leaves Tee Higgins with a better matchup. Higgins should remain a highly-targeted part of the offense and has a decent chance of being the first scorer in this matchup.
San Francisco 49ers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Odds: +2600 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Kenny Pickett looked much improved with his performance in the preseason. He completed 13 of 15 pass attempts for 199 yards and two TDs. He is not necessarily known for his legs, but he scored three touchdowns on the ground last season, with two coming in his first action in week four. The 49ers’ pass rush is one of the best in the league, bolstered by Nick Bosa, but they were not great against the run, especially in the playoffs. Another reason to make this bet is that he is +1700 on other sportsbooks. Pickett could be on the move more, trying to escape Bosa and find himself in the endzone.
Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Commanders
Odds: +1000 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Commanders are currently -7, and the total is the lowest of the week at 38. Sam Howell is the new starter in Washington, and Josh Dobbs is the starter for the Cardinals. There are many question marks at quarterback, which explains the low total. The best play is one with value and stats to back it up. Jahan Dotson was targeted eight times in the red zone last season and caught six, five for scores. He is a good value at +1000, considering he is at +800 at most sportsbooks.
Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints
Odds: +1400 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Tennessee was dead last in opponents passing yards per game (274.8 yards per game) last season, and although they added some pieces, they should not immediately click as a unit. The Titans’ defense will likely get better as the season progresses, as Mike Vrabel's defenses in the past have done just that. Michael Thomas only played in three games last season but was efficient in his limited time, especially in scoring. He caught two TDs in the first game and one in Wee 2. Derek Carr will likely target Thomas early and often to get him involved, especially with Alvin Kamara out.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings
Odds: +1200 via BetMGM
The Vikings threw the ball on 64.38% of their plays last season and should not change much. Justin Jefferson may be the obvious answer, but there is far less value in a wager on him. Instead, T.J. Hockenson provides the highest possibility outside of Jefferson. He is +1200 while being as low as +850 on DraftKings Sportsbook. He averaged 7.6 targets per game, the second most for a TE behind Travis Kelce, and had 20 red zone targets. The Buccaneers were weak against the tight end last season, so take a shot on a tall, physical red zone threat.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Odds: +1000 via BetMGM
The Colts traded Stephon Gilmore to the Cowboys this offseason and now do not have much talent in the secondary. They have some unproven players that could work out, but they have a difficult matchup against the Jaguars this week. Before Calvin Ridley got suspended, he was one of the best wideouts in the league. He averaged 91.6 yards per game and scored nine times in his last full season. At 28, he likely has not lost a step and should make his presence felt quickly.
Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers
Odds: +1100 via BetMGM
The total of this game is currently 51, and the spread is three in favor of the Chargers, which means they project this game to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth game. There are many players to consider on both of these offenses. The Chargers brought in Kellen Moore this offseason to take over as offensive coordinator, and he has a proven track record of scoring points. Keenan Allen averaged 8.9 targets per game last season and should not change in Moore's system. This prop is a solid value at +1100, with most sportsbooks listing him at +950 to score first.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Odds: +900 via FanDuel Sportsbook
The Rams do not project to have a good defense because they have a lot of young players with little experience. Cooper Kupp is not playing on offense, and Matthew Stafford was not very efficient last season, even with Kupp. The Seahawks are the side to bet, and DK Metcalf is a solid play. Jalen Ramsey is now in Miami, and the secondary for the Rams is not very experienced. Hopefully, Geno Smith can put the ball on Metcalf, who will likely be open early and often.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots
Odds: +750 via BetMGM
These teams have two of the better defenses in the league, but one has a much better offense. Jalen Hurts was dominant last season, both on the ground and through the air. The Patriots struggled against mobile quarterbacks in 2022 due to a lack of speed at linebacker. Lamar Jackson ran for 107 yards and a touchdown, and Justin Fields ran for 82 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots last season. Jalen Hurts should have running lanes, and he will likely find them. He is the favorite at most sportsbooks to score first, and for good reason.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Odds: +1100 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Bears are currently one-point favorites, and the total is 42, which means a low-scoring game with a lot of punts. The Packers will be playing without Aaron Rodgers as the starter in their opener for the first time since 2007. Jordan Love may be the answer, but the Bears are likelier to score first in this game. They ran the ball on 56.19% of plays last season, which should continue this season. The Packers struggled against the run last season, as well. Khalil Herbert is too low to pass up in this matchup.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Odds: +800 via BetMGM
The Raiders were not good against the pass last season and did not do much to improve things. They drafted Tyree Wilson, a talented edge rusher who could pay off in the long run, but does not address their needs in the secondary. The pass rush needs to cover up their weakness, and they have Maxx Crosby, one of the best in the business. Jimmy Garopollo will lead the offense this season, but things should be similar under Josh McDaniels. Josh Jacobs was dominant last season and topped 100 yards against the Broncos in both meetings. He is a safe play to find the end zone.
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