NFL Week 1 First Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions (2024)
Someone must score the first touchdown of the game. This article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the first touchdown scorer picks and predictions for NFL Week 1.
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NFL Week 1 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons' offense is one a lot of people are looking forward to seeing with Kirk Cousins under center. They have Bijan Robinson in the backfield and Kyle Pitts at tight end, but the player who may be flying under the radar is Drake London. He had 16 red-zone targets last season out of 110 total targets. Only 73 were catchable, which will improve with the accurate Cousins throwing the ball. The Steelers' defense is a tough opponent, but London is as athletic as anyone and poised to break out. Do not be afraid to take a chance on him at +950 when he is as low as +650 at other sportsbooks.
Pick: Drake London (+950 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears
One of the more interesting games on Sunday is between the Titans and the Bears. Caleb Williams will make his debut and will have to deal with L'Jarius Sneed at cornerback for the Titans. Rome Odunze may be the benefactor of Sneed covering DJ Moore or Keenan Allen. Allen is dealing with a heel injury that is limiting him in practice. Odunze could be forced into a situation where he has to be a reliable target for Williams. Odunze had a great season at Washington last year and is in a good spot at +1400, with his odds as low as +1000 at other sportsbooks.
Pick: Rome Odunze (+1400 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson only played in four games last season. One was against the Texans. He scored two touchdowns on the ground on three attempts for 35 yards and only had 56 yards through the air. Gardner Minshew replaced Richardson in the second quarter after he suffered an injury, and the Colts won the game. Houston allowed the most (nine) rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks last year. Richardson is a smash play at +800, with him being the favorite at other sportsbooks at +480.
Pick: Anthony Richardson (+800 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill received 31.1% of the team's targets last season, including 24 red-zone targets. He is off the injury report, which is a great sign as he deals with a thumb injury. Jaylen Waddle is also dealing with an injury but has returned to practice. The Dolphins will rely on Hill a lot in their season opener and should target him early and often. The Jaguars will likely have Tyson Campbell cover Hill for much of the game, but it may not matter. Hill is seemingly matchup-proof because of his speed and ability to score a long touchdown on any play.
Pick: Tyreek Hill (+700 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills
There has been a lot of turnover at the wide receiver position for the Bills in the offseason, which should give us an edge in this market. They lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Josh Allen has a lot of new targets. They play the Cardinals' defense, which was putrid last season. The Cardinals cannot pressure the quarterback and Allen should have plenty of time to throw. Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel will be his primary receivers alongside Dalton Kincaid and James Cook. Samuel is questionable to play as he deals with turf toe, but he should suit up in Week 1 and has a great matchup. He offers the best value of all the targets, so it is a great spot to take a chance in an unknown situation.
Pick: Curtis Samuel (+1700 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Patriots are not an appealing team to bet on, especially to score a touchdown, but this may be one of the best opportunities all season. Jacoby Brissett is starting behind a below-average offensive line and must get the ball out quickly. DeMario Douglas can create separation and has improved over the offseason. The Bengals struggled against slot receivers last season, giving up the third-most receiving touchdowns to that position. Douglas is not a pretty option but may be the right one with many unknowns on the Bengals' offense regarding Ja'Marr Chase.
Pick: DeMario Douglas (+2500 via BetMGM)
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara is dealing with back tightness, which has caused him to miss practice this week. It is worth watching, but given his age and importance to the offense, it should be more cautionary. The Saints are playing the Panthers at home, which is a great matchup for Kamara. The Panthers allowed the most rushing touchdowns (21) to running backs last season. Kamara is a great play. Sportsbooks will only decrease the odds as the game approaches.
Pick: Alvin Kamara (+650 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants
T.J. Hockenson did not play in Weeks 17 and 18 of last season. Johnny Mundt received seven and six targets in those games, respectively. He caught nine of those targets for one touchdown. He will be the top tight end for Sam Darnold on Sunday, and his odds are too high. His usage at the end of last season tells us how he will be used as Hockenson is on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list for the first four weeks. The big stat is he played 75% of the snaps when replacing Hockenson last season. He will be on the field and has a much better chance of catching the first touchdown than his odds suggest.
Pick: Johnny Mundt (+2900 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks
Kenneth Walker is a no-brainer play against the Broncos' defense. Patrick Surtain will likely shadow DK Metcalf, which could limit his production. Jaxon Smith-Njigba does not offer any value with his current price, so Walker is the play. Bo Nix is starting for the Broncos. I predict a rocky start for the rookie as he settles into professional football. Walker is facing a defense that allowed the second-most rushing yards to opposing running backs last season. More importantly, he is fully healthy. He should be a safe option in a game that likely sees the Seahawks score first.
Pick: Kenneth Walker (+500 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
The odds for Zamir White are too high on DraftKings. He is priced at +750 on FanDuel Sportsbook and is lower at other sportsbooks. White played behind Josh Jacobs for most of last season but got a chance to prove his worth from Week 15 until the end of the season. He ran for 100 yards twice during that span but was not lucky enough to find the end zone more than once. This game has a low total and could be a defensive game between two rivals, which means White is a solid play to find the end zone first if given 20+ carries.
Pick: Zamir White (+1000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns
Jerome Ford should be the workhorse running back for the Browns to start the season. Nick Chubb will start the season on the PUP list. D'Onta Foreman is the backup. Ford should get all the opportunities in the season opener and is the favorite at multiple sportsbooks to score first. CeeDee Lamb is near the same odds, but he will be a popular play on Sunday. Jerome Ford is a solid option who will be involved heavily in a game with a 40.5-point total.
Pick: Jerome Ford (+650 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Commanders were a bottom-five defense last season, especially defending the run. They allowed 14 touchdowns on the ground and five through the air to opposing running backs. Rachaad White gets a lot of touches out of the backfield on the ground and in the air. Many of his stats were inefficient last season, but he received the opportunities, which is key. White had 11 attempts inside the 5-yard line last season and eight red-zone targets from Baker Mayfield. He is the best option to take against this new-look Commanders defense.
Pick: Rachaad White (+650 via FanDuel Sportsbook)