NFL Week 1 Line Movement Analysis (2023)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information. Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g. injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line. For example, the Chiefs moved from 6.5 to 4-point favorites after the news that Travis Kelce injured his knee in practice two days before the 2023 opening night game. Meanwhile, Cooper Kupp was ruled out against Seattle and the line stayed within a point of the Seahawks opening line of -5.5.
NFL Week 1 Line Movement Analysis
The below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games and help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| CAR | ATL | -2.5 | -3.5 | -1 | 43.5 | 39.5 | -4 |
| HOU | BAL | -9 | -9.5 | -0.5 | 45.5 | 44 | -1.5 |
| GB | CHI | -2.5 | -1 | 1.5 | 44 | 42 | -2 |
| CIN | CLE | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 47 | 47.5 | 0.5 |
| LV | DEN | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 | 45 | 44 | -1 |
| JAX | IND | 3.5 | 5 | 1.5 | 43.5 | 46.5 | 3 |
| MIA | LAC | -2.5 | -3 | -0.5 | 49.5 | 51 | 1.5 |
| TB | MIN | -6.5 | -5.5 | 1 | 46.5 | 45.5 | -1 |
| PHI | NE | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | 46 | 45 | -1 |
| TEN | NO | -3.5 | -3 | 0.5 | 42 | 42 | 0 |
| DAL | NYG | 3 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 47 | 46 | -1 |
| BUF | NYJ | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 48 | 45.5 | -2.5 |
| SF | PIT | 3 | 2 | -1 | 42 | 41.5 | -0.5 |
| LAR | SEA | -5.5 | -5 | 0.5 | 46.5 | 46 | -0.5 |
| ARI | WAS | -5.5 | -7 | -1.5 | 40.5 | 38 | -2.5 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via @betstamp | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
NFL Week 1 Spread Movement Analysis
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts +3.5 ?' +5.0
The training camp excitement surrounding the Colts’ fourth-overall pick QB Anthony Richardson has been overshadowed by the Jonathan Taylor situation. Ultimately, Taylor was not traded and placed on PUP, so he will not be able to help ease the rookie QB into the NFL. The divisional matchup sees an up-and-coming team led by QB Trevor Lawrence, who broke out last season with over 4,000 yards passing and a playoff win over the Chargers. Not to mention, the Jaguars get to debut WR Calvin Ridley, who is coming off a one-year suspension for gambling.
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders -5.5 ?' -7.0
New Cardinals Head Coach Jonathan Gannon has not yet announced his starting QB for the matchup in Washington. It’ll be between journeyman QB Josh Dobbs, who Ian Rapoport of NFL Network expects to start, and rookie QB Clayton Tune. Regardless of who starts, we can see why this line has moved in favor of the Commanders. It’ll be interesting to see at what point, if any, QB Kyler Murray returns, or if the Cardinals potentially go into tank mode for USC QB Caleb Williams. Meanwhile, the vibes out of Washington are good regarding second-year QB Sam Howell, who has had an impressive preseason. The McLaurin injury hurts, but I think former Kansas City offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy will help put Howell in a position to succeed.
NFL Week 1 Total Movement Analysis
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons 43.5 ?' 39.5
This total saw the largest drop from its opening line. 39.5 is now the second lowest of the week, ahead of only the Arizona at Washington matchup. The Panthers are starting a rookie QB, albeit the first-overall pick whom they traded up for. It does not seem like the rookie will have his full complement of weapons on Sunday, as veteran receivers Adam Thielen and DJ Chark have not been practicing as of Thursday. This week, he will likely have to rely on Jonathan Mingo as his WR1. The Falcons led the league in rushing attempts last season and added a top-10 RB in Bijan Robinson to the offense. This may be a slow-moving game and it makes sense why the total has plummeted.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears 44.0 ?' 42.0
This matchup features another game where both teams will likely have run-heavy game plans. The Bears led the league in rushing a season ago and trailed only the Falcons in rushing attempts. Everyone is expecting a big leap in the passing game for QB Justin Fields, but it will be difficult to see the Bears’ offense changing substantially, despite the addition of DJ Moore. Meanwhile, the Packers will likely lean on Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon against a Bears defense that was gashed for the second-most rushing yards in the league last season. That is usually a recipe for fewer points.
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