NFL Week 1 Line Movement Analysis (2025)
The 2025 NFL season is finally here! After the Cowboys and Eagles kicked things off on Thursday, it’s time to get ready for the rest of the Week 1 slate. Tracking how much betting lines move during an NFL week can provide useful information to us bettors. As sportsbooks collect more information and public or sharp money flows in, lines take more shape.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line. Let’s take a look at how the spreads and totals have moved for every remaining NFL game this week.
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NFL Week 1 Line Movement Analysis
The table below summarizes the home team spread and game total movement for this week’s NFL games. Below, we’ll break down some of the more significant line movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| KC | LAC | 3 | 3 | - | 45 | 46.5 | 1.5 |
| MIA | IND | 1 | -1 | 2 | 46 | 46.5 | 0.5 |
| NYG | WSH | -6.5 | -6 | -0.5 | 45.5 | 45.5 | - |
| LV | NE | -3 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 42.5 | 44 | 1.5 |
| CAR | JAC | -2.5 | -3.5 | 1 | 46.5 | 47 | 0.5 |
| PIT | NYJ | 3 | 3 | - | 39.5 | 38 | -1.5 |
| CIN | CLE | 5.5 | 5 | 0.5 | 46 | 48 | 2 |
| ARI | NO | 5.5 | 6.5 | -1 | 42 | 43 | 1 |
| TB | ATL | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 49 | 47 | -2 |
| SF | SEA | 1.5 | 2 | -0.5 | 45.5 | 43.5 | -2 |
| TEN | DEN | -7 | -8.5 | 1.5 | 41.5 | 42.5 | 1 |
| HOU | LAR | -2.5 | -3 | 0.5 | 46 | 43.5 | -2.5 |
| DET | GB | 1 | -2 | 3 | 50 | 47 | -3 |
| BAL | BUF | -1 | 1 | -2 | 52.5 | 50.5 | -2 |
| MIN | CHI | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 44 | 44 | - |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Open odds from 6/18 | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: +1 to -2
After going 15-2 last season, the Lions opened as 1-point road favorites over the summer for this season opener. Well, the public has spoken, with the Packers now favored. It's an interesting spread flip, especially since Detroit won both regular season meetings last year. Maybe it has something to do with Green Bay trading for Micah Parsons?
We have some notable against-the-spread (ATS) trends in play for both teams here. Lions QB Jared Goff is 8-0 ATS in Week 1 over his career, including 6-2 straight up. Plus, head coach Dan Campbell is 11-3 ATS in September.
Meanwhile, Packers coach Matt LaFleur is also great at covering early spreads. Since LaFleur took over in 2019, Green Bay has gone 15-3 ATS over the first three games of the season. That includes a perfect 7-0 ATS mark at home. Something has to give in this NFC North showdown.
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos: -7 to -8.5
This line movement isn't as dramatic as the Lions-Packers one above, but it's still significant. Denver was previously a full touchdown favorite for this matchup against Tennessee. Now, the spread has moved above that key number to 8.5. Money has come in on the home favorites, and the books are reacting.
Titans rookie QB Cam Ward will make his NFL debut on the road in a tough spot. Denver's defense allowed just 18.3 PPG last year (3rd in NFL), and Vance Joseph's unit is expected to be among the best again this season. Plus, No. 1 pick quarterbacks have collectively gone 8-20 ATS in their first start since 1970.
As for the Broncos, they're being hyped as a dark-horse Super Bowl contender heading into this opener. Then there are these trends. Last year, Nix led Denver to a profitable 12-5 ATS record when starting. That includes a perfect 8-0 ATS as a favorite.
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams: 46 to 43.5
When the lines opened over the summer, this game's total was tied for the fifth-highest on the Week 1 slate. That number has now dropped to a 43.5 Over/Under, which is tied for the third-lowest total on Sunday. There are offensive playmakers on both sides of the ball, but this game may be lower-scoring than originally expected.
Houston comes in with injuries and question marks on offense. Joe Mixon is sidelined to begin the season, while WRs Christian Kirk and Braxton Berrios are both questionable with hamstring injuries. Then there's the offensive line, which struggled last year. The Texans didn't make any notable improvements in O-line personnel and even traded Laremy Tunsil away this offseason. That could be trouble against a dangerous Rams pass rush.
On the other side, the LA offense may start slow as well. Sean McVay notoriously doesn't play his starters in the preseason. That's resulted in the Rams scoring 10, 13, and 20 points in Week 1 over the past three years. In this season's opener, 37-year-old QB Matthew Stafford will especially need to shake off some rust after nursing a back injury throughout training camp.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 46 to 48
This AFC North matchup could end up being one of the higher-scoring games of Week 1. There are reasons to be optimistic about both offenses putting up points, hence the total rising to 47.5 as of this writing.
The Bengals have notoriously started slow in recent seasons. That should have the offense more locked in as Cincinnati looks to get off on the right foot this time around. Joe Burrow has a healthy Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase at his disposal to begin the year, and the passing attack can exploit a Cleveland defense with question marks outside of Myles Garrett
Meanwhile, the Cincy defense was a liability in 2024 and it projects to struggle again this season. That may be trouble against a Browns offense that will likely be pass-happy with Joe Flacco under center. The veteran has shown a propensity to chuck it around in recent seasons. In fact, the over is 8-3 in Flacco's last 11 starts over the past two years, with an average of 53.1 total PPG scored in those games.