NFL Week 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Moneyline Underdog Bets (2022)
There are some Week 1 longshot bets worth considering, although everyone who bets on the NFL has their risk tolerance. Some bettors chip away relentlessly at whatever edges they can find, no matter how small the win is. Others don’t have an interest in anything outside of Hail Mary parlays, where they can take tenfold their bets. With that considered, I am selecting three moneyline underdogs I like this week. I’ve measured them as small, medium, and large long shots.
In Week 1 last year, the underdogs went 9-7. The early season underdogs can be great bets because of how difficult it can be to project based on how the off-season changes are perceived and how much relies on past results that may not have much of an impact on the future when determining the odds.
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Moneyline underdogs for Week 1 with odds from FanDuel Sportsbook
- Dallas Cowboys (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) (+106)
- Minnesota Vikings (vs. Green Bay Packers) (+108)
- LA Rams (vs. Buffalo Bills) (+116)
- Cleveland Browns (@Carolina Panthers) (+118)
- New England Patriots (@ Miami Dolphins) (+132)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (at Washington Commanders) (+138)
- Las Vegas Raiders (@ LA Chargers) (+154)
- Detroit Lions (vs. Philadelphia Eagles) (+166)
- Arizona Cardinals (vs. Kansas City Chiefs) (+166)
- Atlanta Falcons (vs. New Orleans Saints) (+190)
- New York Giants (@ Tennessee Titans) (+198)
- Seattle Seahawks (vs. Denver Broncos) (+210)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Cincinnati Bengals) (+220)
- New York Jets (vs. Baltimore Ravens) (+235)
- Chicago Bears (vs. San Francisco 49ers) (+250)
- Houston Texans (vs. Indianapolis Colts) (+320)
Small Week 1 Longshot Bet (odds between +101 to +150)
The Jacksonville Jaguars will head to FedEx field to face the Washington Commanders for Week 1.
The last time we saw Carson Wentz on the field was against the Jaguars. A playoff birth was on the line for the Indianapolis Colts, and all they needed was to beat the team with the worst record in the NFL. That performance was so bad that the Colts ran Wentz out of town before they even had someone to replace him.
The Jaguars spent most of last season dealing with off-the-field coaching issues, with inconceivable stories coming out weekly until the head coach Urban Meyer was finally fired in December 2021. This atmosphere wasn’t the most supportive for Trevor Lawrence, the highest touted quarterback to enter the league since Andrew Luck. The Jaguars tried to correct that this year by bringing in Superbowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson. Year two for Lawrence, with the support of Pederson, could lead to a giant leap for the Jaguars this season.
The Commanders appear to be building toward some future success. Still, with pre-season stand-out Brian Robinson on the non-football injury list after a shooting incident and defensive superstar Chase Young expected to miss time to start the season, the Commanders may get off to a slow start. It will take some time for Carson Wentz to get acclimated to the new system, and it will take time for the team to get healthy.
Looking back on this line in a few weeks, we might wonder why we weren’t fading the Commanders early and buying into the Jaguars.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (+138)
Medium Longshot Bet (odds between +151 to +200)
The Las Vegas Raiders are heading to SoFi Stadium to face off against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1. The entire AFC West was extremely busy this off-season, but the Raiders and Chargers particularly made a lot of noise. The Chargers looked to improve their defense by bringing Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson to a unit with defensive stars Joey Bosa and Derwin James. The Raiders added Davante Adams to an offensive unit that already included Hunter Renfrow, Darren Waller, and Josh Jacobs. The Raiders also looked to sure up their pass rush by adding Chandler Jones to get after the opposing quarterbacks alongside Maxx Crosby.
Both teams have some questions for a head coach. The Chargers will be hoping their defense that finished 26th in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings can take a step forward in the second year with Brandon Staley’s scheme. Staley took a very aggressive approach with the offense, particularly on 4th down, where the Chargers lead the league in 4th down conversions with 22. With this tactic comes much conversation whenever a risky 4th down isn’t converted. It will be interesting to watch early this season if he stays true to his method or if the outside pressure moves him towards a more conservative approach.
The Raiders have moved on from the prior regime and what seems like the majority of their early-round draft picks. In comes, Josh McDaniels in his first attempt at head coaching since his time in Denver ended. If McDaniels can highlight Derek Carr’s strengths and get the most out of him and his loaded weapons, the Raiders could be serious contenders this season.
These two teams faced off in the final game of the regular season last year, with the winner going to the playoffs. The Raiders won that game and went on to lose by one score to the eventual AFC Superbowl representative Cincinnati Bengals. Las Vegas overcame their coach being replaced mid-season and some off-field incidents that are bigger than football, and were still able to make the playoffs last year. With stability at the coaching position, some significant off-season additions, and the recent history of beating the Chargers the last time they played at +154 odds, I like the Las Vegas Raiders as a Week 1 long shot to win.
Pick: Las Vegas Raiders (+154)
Large Week 1 Longshot Bet (odds of +201 and up)
The Houston Texans are home underdogs against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1. As far as moneyline longshots go at +320, this is the longest shot you can have this week.
The Colts’ biggest off-season move was moving on from Carson Wentz and bringing in Matt Ryan. After 14 seasons with the Falcons, Ryan will start the next chapter of his career as a Colt. Ryan has always played in a passing-focused offense. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts to handing the ball off more often to arguably the best running back in the league in Jonathan Taylor.
While on the topic of the best running backs in the league… If you play fantasy football or have been following the pre-season, there is remarkable hype for the Texans rookie running back Dameon Pierce. The Texans added Pierce in the 4th round in a draft class that bolstered the secondary with 1st, and 2nd round picks in cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and safety Jalen Pitre. The Texans also had a second 1st round pick that they used to add to their offensive line by drafting Kenyon Green out of Texas A&M.
Outside of the draft picks, the biggest move this year for the Texans was bringing in Lovie Smith. Smith has a career-winning percentage of .505 with a record including playoffs of 92-90. Smith took the Chicago Bears to the Superbowl with Rex Grossman and a great defense.
The Texans and the Colts have a lot of variance in how their seasons could go this year. The Colts could be good if Matt Ryan is rejuvenated with a new team. There is also the risk of a 37-year-old quarterback taking a step back physically. The Texans could be a year-2 leap by Davis Mills away from being respectable, at least within the AFC South. For a long shot, though, I like a young building team with a new coach to potentially upset a good established team trying to plug in a new quarterback who may need to work out some kinks early in the season.
Pick: Houston Texans (+320)
The Longshot Parlay for Week 1
At FanDuel Sportsbook, this parlay would pay +2438.
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