NFL Week 1 Pick’em Pool Predictions (2024)

by Phil Wood |
Sep 04, 2024

The NFL season is here, and we're back providing pick-em advice for some of the hardest-to-predict games each week. In Week 1, only one team is favored by more than seven points, while only three are favored by five or more. With so many close games on the schedule, how can you gain an advantage in your pick-em pool?

Here is our best NFL pick-em advice for Week 1.

NFL Week 1 Pick’em Pool Predictions

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Packers and Eagles will meet in Sao Paulo on Friday night. The Eagles are currently favored by three points in what is considered a home game for them. However, with the game being played in Brazil, there will be no home-field advantage for the Eagles. Which begs the question: Why are the Eagles favored in this game?

It's a new season, but it's hard to forget how these teams ended 2023-24. The Packers won six of their last eight, manhandled the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card Round, then nearly upset the San Francisco 49ers. Meanwhile, the Eagles lost five of their last six regular season games, then were walloped by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the postseason.

The Eagles’ defense is expected to be better than last season, but that’s not saying much. They allowed 25.6 points per game and allowed more than 25 points in seven of their last eight games. The Packers bring back a lot of what worked last season, and with a more confident QB entering 2024, they should come away with a narrow victory in this one.

The Pick: Green Bay Packers

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

The public absolutely loves the Texans in this game. Most sportsbooks are showing more than 70% of bets backing the Texans as 2.5-point favorites. And yet, the spread hasn't moved to a full three points. Something fishy is going on.

While the Texans are a public darling to start the season, many are forgetting that the Colts were good last season despite losing Anthony Richardson early on. They finished just one game behind the Texans last season and actually finished 1-1 against their AFC South rivals despite Richardson playing just four games.

The Texans have a better team than the Colts, but this is a really tough Week 1 matchup. Going on the road against a division rival with a quarterback ready to prove himself after a shortened rookie year with a team that is used to winning without him is not going to be easy. Take the home team.

The Pick: Indianapolis Colts

Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys take the field for the first time since getting destroyed by the Packers in the Wild Card Round of last year's playoffs. They should be fired up to take the field and wash the taste of that game out of their mouths, but this is a bad matchup to start the season.

Prescott finished last season as the league's third-leading passer with 4,516 yards. But he was a totally different quarterback on the road than he was at home. The Cowboys led all teams with an average of 265.8 passing yards per game. At home, they averaged 314.4 passing yards per contest, but on the road, they averaged just 217.1.

The Browns finished last season, allowing the second-fewest passing yards in the league. They take on a one-dimensional offense in Week 1, and that one dimension plays right into their strength. The Browns' offense has a lot of question marks, but at home in Week 1, they should do enough to get the win.

The Pick: Cleveland Browns

New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers

Aaron Rodgers finally takes the field after suffering his Achilles injury in Week 1 of last season. He's another player who was done no favors with scheduling. He has to begin the year on the road against one of the best defenses in the league.

The 49ers are favored by more than a field goal in this game, and rightfully so. But this is going to be much closer than many are expecting. The Jets are infinitely better than they were last season with a healthy Rodgers. The 49ers will put up points, but the Jets can hang with them and perhaps produce a statement victory.

We're ultimately going to take the home team in this one, but if you're looking for a potentially shocking result this week, this is where it's going to happen. The Jets have the talent to win this game. If the 49ers have a hangover from last year's Super Bowl, they're going to start the year 0-1.

The Pick: San Francisco 49ers

Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced strategy - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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