NFL Week 1 Pick’em Pool Predictions (2025)
Eleven of the 16 Week 1 games have spreads of 3.5 or fewer points, which means there are plenty of games that could go either way. The first week of the NFL season always seems to have a few surprises. Below are three picks for games with tight point spreads, and I also picked one underdog many are probably overlooking.
Here are my top NFL Week 1 pick’em pool predictions.
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NFL Week 1 Pick'em Pool Predictions (2025)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
The Bengals are favored by 5.5 points, so I doubt there are many people giving the Browns much of a chance in this game. However, the Bengals have been horrible in the first two weeks of the season, going 0-6 in the last three seasons combined.
When you look at the talent being put on the field, few would argue that the Browns have the better roster. That said, this is a really tricky spot for the Bengals. This game is being played in Cleveland, where the Browns managed to beat the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers last season, and Joe Flacco will start at quarterback.
While I doubt Flacco remains the Browns’ quarterback for the whole season, I also don't see him exiting this game early unless he's injured. He already has nine wins against the Bengals in his career. When you consider the Browns had one of the best pass defenses in the league last year, they could slow down a Bengals' offense that is generally sluggish early in the season. On the other side, I expect Flacco to do enough against a mediocre defense to keep his team in the game and potentially sneak away with the win.
Pick: Cleveland Browns
Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts
With Daniel Jones starting for the Colts, I'm surprised to see them favored in this game. Both teams were 8-9 one season ago, but the Dolphins’ path to that record was much more difficult, as they had to deal with injuries to Tua Tagovailoa, which kept him out of six games.
Not only is Tagovailoa playing in Week 1, but De'Von Achane is also on track to get on the field in the first game of the season. With so much firepower, I expect the Dolphins' offense to have no trouble against a defense that allowed 25.1 points per game last season.
Since the Dolphins had such a disappointing season last year, many forget that the defense finished as a top-10 unit when it came to points allowed per game. If the offense can get back on track, there's no reason to think the Dolphins can't contend this season. I'm not going to back Jones just because he's with a different team. After all, he hasn't played well since 2022.
Pick: Miami Dolphins
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Even before Micah Parsons joined the Packers, I was ready to take them to beat the two-time defending NFC North champs. The Lions lost both of their coordinators this offseason, and while the offense is still loaded with talent, and the defense is healthy, this is a really tough first game.
The Packers are not the type of team you want to face when you're in a transition period. They've made the postseason in back-to-back years, and they played the Lions tough twice last season. Additionally, in 2023, Jordan Love beat the Lions in Detroit on Thanksgiving.
With all the talent the Lions have, they could roll through the NFC North again this season. However, it's impossible to overvalue the impact Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn had on the success of this team over the last few seasons. If they were playing a lesser opponent, I'd probably take the Lions to win. However, until I see what the Lions look like, I can't back them to win on the road against an NFC sleeper.
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Last season, the Ravens and Bills met twice. While the Ravens obliterated the Bills during the regular season, it was the Bills who got the last laugh, beating the Ravens 27-25 in the Divisional Round.
While much of the conversation will be about Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, I have my eyes focused on the rushing attacks. Last season, the Ravens led the league, allowing just 3.6 rushing yards per attempt. Meanwhile, the Bills ranked 22nd, allowing 4.6 yards per attempt. Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards against the Bills in their first meeting, and while he only ran for 84 in the postseason, that type of performance would certainly be enough for the Ravens to spring the upset.
That said, I'm ultimately going to side with the home team. The Bills went a perfect 10-0 at home last season, beating both the Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs. On a neutral field, I'd take the Ravens, but in Buffalo, I'll stick with the home team. That said, this is the hardest Week 1 game to predict.
Pick: Buffalo Bills
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.