NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread (2018)

It’s been a while since we’ve had the opportunity to watch meaningful NFL football. However, the wait over and now is the time to get your picks in for Week 1. Below is some brief analysis for all of this weekend’s games along with a projected outcome. If you’re interested in putting some money on this week’s games, then this article is a great resource but by no means is the be all end all. Take these nuggets and encompass them into your own process. As always remember to bet responsibly. Now let’s get to the good stuff.

Sunday 9/9/2018 1:00pm

Bengals vs Colts (-2.5)
Weather: Dome
Andrew Luck looks primed to make his return after missing the entirety of the 2017 season. Luck is considerably better than anything the Colts had going last year, but there will be rust to knock off. The Bengals offense matches up well against the Colts defense. The Colts are solid on run defense, but I don’t know how well they’ll be able to keep A.J.Green, John Ross, and the Tyler’s in check. The Colts do have home field advantage in this one, but the return of Luck is keeping this line at a value of the underrated Bengals.

Pick: Bengals +2.5 (Medium Confidence), Score: CIN 27 – IND 24

Bills vs Ravens (-7.5)
Weather: 66 Degrees with a 55% chance of rain
Nathan Peterman has been named the starter for the Bills over rookie Josh Allen. The Bills may very well be one of the worst teams in the league this year, while the Ravens could have a significantly improved offense. This won’t be a barn burner as both defenses are pretty strong, with the Bills having a very solid secondary which should limit big plays. With that, the Ravens should be able to get a lot done underneath with Michael Crabtree and have a consistent running game with Alex Collins beating up on the weaker part of that defensive line.

Pick: Ravens -7.5 (Medium Confidence), Score: BAL 23 – BUF 13

Buccaneers vs Saints (-9.5)
Weather: Dome
The Buccaneers were absolutely atrocious in 2017, and while their QB situation is still rough with Jameis Winston’s suspension, the defense has been greatly improved from a talent standpoint. The big question for the Bucs is their secondary. They invested in it heavily in the draft, and if those guys step up, this unit could be truly good. If not, they may be bleeding points in the quick passing game. The Saints defense is also no slouch as they’ve converted to more of a running team. Because this one is a divisional rivalry with two defenses that I believe will be better, the lines here are close to spot on.

Pick: Buccaneers +9.5 (Low Confidence), Score: NO 27 – TB 20

Texans vs Patriots (-6)
Weather: 66 Degrees with a 1% chance of rain
These two teams saw each other early in 2017 as well and it finished 36-33 in favor of the Patriots. If you remember, though, the Patriots had a rocky start on defense last year, before quietly becoming one of the better units over the course of the year. There’s tape on Watson now, and the Texans have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Also, the Texans secondary is still an issue, and while they do have a plethora of pass rushers back to health, I don’t think it’ll matter with how quickly Brady gets rid of the ball. I expect a relatively high-scoring game with the Patriots being a touchdown better than the Texans.

Pick: Patriots -6 (Low Confidence), Score: NE 31 – HOU 24

49ers vs Vikings (-6.5)
Weather: Dome
The 49ers just lost their big free-agent running back in Jerick McKinnon for the season. Jimmy Garoppolo is one of the most hyped quarterbacks in the league right now. I hate to rain on anyone’s parade, but I’m not ready to fully buy into the hype just yet. The Vikings did lose offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur who did wonders with this team, but the talent level is better and they did a nice job replacing him with John Defilippo. Add in that I believe the Vikings match-up well personnel-wise the 49ers and with home field advantage, should be able to handle their business.

Pick: Vikings -6.5 (Medium Confidence), Score: MIN 27 – SF 17

Titans vs Dolphins (+1.5)
Weather: 87 Degrees with a 10% chance of rain
After a year without Ryan Tannehill, he’s back with the Dolphins and looks ready to go. He’s been a breakout candidate for just about every year of his career it feels like. The Titans defense was solid in 2017 and they bolstered it in the draft this year. The Dolphins have gotten considerably less talented from last year, but perhaps some better cohesion will make them a better unit? I’m not of that belief, though, so despite the Dolphins being the home team, I believe the better defense and running game will get it done in a close one on a hot and humid day in Miami.

Pick: Titans -1.5 (Low Confidence), Score: TEN 20 – MIA 17

Jaguars vs Giants (+3)
Weather: 68 Degrees with a 3% chance of rain
The Jaguars are a number of people’s picks to win the AFC, while the Giants may be one of the most improved teams in the league on offense, with new head coach Pat Shurmur, a healthy Odell Beckham Jr., a revamped offensive line, and first-round running back Saquan Barkley. These offenses are very similar, but I’d argue that the Giants are better overall with the new offensive line and what should be a significantly better offensive philosophy. On the flip side of that, however, is the Jaguars still being one of, if not, the best defenses in the league. This one will likely be decided by less than a touchdown, but I’ll side with the team that has more continuity on both sides of the ball to start the season.

Pick: Jaguars -3 (Low Confidence), Score: JAC 23 – NYG 17

Steelers vs Browns (+4.5)
Weather: 66 Degrees with a 50% chance of rain
In recent history, the Browns have put up some tough fights against the Steelers and have covered the spread in the last three outings. While the Browns seem to be America’s darlings with Hard Knocks, let’s not forget this is a team that has been 1-31 over the last two years. While they’re a better coaching staff with Todd Haley as offensive coordinator and are considerably more talented with all the free agent acquisitions, this will be the Browns’ first time playing as a single unit in a game that matters. Don’t underestimate the power of continuity. With Le’Veon Bell pretty much a lock to miss Week 1, this line has been pushed heavily in the Steelers favor. Regardless, I think the Steelers are the better team with more continuity and will win by a touchdown.

Pick: Steelers -4.5 (Low Confidence), Score: PIT 27 – CLE 20

Sunday 9/9/2018 4:05pm

Chiefs vs Chargers (-3.5)
Weather: 89 Degrees and sunny
The Chargers have always seemed to squander away a good thing, yet this year there’s a different feeling about the team. They now seem like a contender in the AFC, assuming health. The Chargers have already lost some solid pieces for the year, but at the same time, they still have a very talented roster. On the other side, the Chiefs are ready for the Mahomes era to begin. Alex Smith had a career year in 2017 and was arguably the best deep ball passer in the league. Personally, I have a hard time believing Mahomes is able to duplicate that in year one. With that in mind, the Chargers are at home, have more cohesion, and look like a team primed for a breakout.

Pick: Chargers -3.5 (Low Confidence), Score: LAC 27 – KC 20

Sunday 9/9/2018 4:25pm

Cowboys vs Panthers (-3)
Weather: 83 Degrees with a 13% chance of rain
This may be the closest game of the week. We have two teams who are fairly evenly matched on both offense and defense. The Panthers have the more dynamic QB and run defense. The Cowboys have a generational running back who had little miles on him last season to go along with a great run blocking line and decent defense. I believe if this game was in Dallas the spread would be flip-flopped. With a game that’s so up in the air, I’ll take the points with the underdog in what I believe will be a tightly contested matchup.

Pick: Cowboys +3 (Low Confidence), Score: CAR 21 – DAL 20

Redskins vs Cardinals (-1)
Weather: Dome
Both of these teams have had some turnover in the offense. Alex Smith replaces Kirk Cousins for the Redskins, they drafted who should have been their workhorse back in Derrius Guice, only for a torn ACL to end his rookie season before it started, and now Adrian Peterson is getting another tour of duty. The Cardinals have a new QB in Sam Bradford, David Johnson is back in the fold, and there’s a brand new coaching staff. As a whole, I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched, and with a game that’s a pick’em, I’ll take the home team with the most explosive player in DJ.

Pick: Cardinals -1 (Low Confidence), Score: ARI 23 – WAS 20

Seahawks vs Broncos (-3)
Weather: 86 Degrees with a 1% chance of rain
This is a fun Week 1 match-up for me. I’ve been a huge proponent for a Broncos bounce back this year with, what should be, vastly improved QB play. On the other side, though, I’ve highly criticized the Seahawks moves. I wasn’t a fan of their coordinator hires, their offensive line is still not that great, they lost their receiving touchdown leader in Jimmy Graham, their first-round pick isn’t ready to start (though I did like Penny when he was drafted), their leading receiver will be 85% healthy at best this year, and some of their best defensive players are either no longer on the team or holding out. In my opinion, the Broncos outmatch the Seahawks in nearly every way, minus the QB spot. To throw in one more thing, the Seahawks have been slow starters with Wilson at QB, and I see no reason for that to change this year.

Pick: Broncos -3 (High Confidence), Score: DEN 30 – SEA 20

Sunday 9/9/2018 8:20pm

Bears vs Packers (-7.5)
Weather: 60 Degrees with clear skies
The Bears are a team a lot of people like for a breakout with new head coach Matt Nagy, a revamped WR corps, and now the addition of one of the best linebackers in the league in Khalil Mack. The Packers have Aaron Rodgers back and Joe Philbin returns as the OC for Mike McCarthy. I believe the Packers defense is one that’s gotten quietly better, while the Bears defense is one of the better groups in the league. Mack will play but may be on a snap count. Overall, though, I believe these division rivals will keep one another relatively in check. The Packers should win the game, but the Bears should give them a run for their money.

Pick: Bears +7.5 (Low Confidence), Score: GB 21 – CHI 17

Monday 9/10/2018 7:10pm

Jets vs Lions (-6.5)
Weather: Dome
The Jets have decided that Sam Darnold will be their guy right out of the gate, despite having such conviction earlier in the offseason that McCown would be the starter to open the season. While Darnold has had a nice preseason, this will be his first meaningful game where the defense will be coming after him. The Lions now have former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia as their head coach, and while I do expect the offense to still be explosive, I believe they’ll try to run the ball a bit more. We have two similarly matched defenses, with the Lions having the better offense. The Lions are notorious for letting games stay close and while I expect them to win, I don’t see this one becoming a blowout.

Pick: Jets +6.5 (Low Confidence), Score: DET 23 – NYJ 17

Monday 9/10/2018 10:20pm

Rams vs Raiders (+4.5)
Weather: 61 Degrees with clear skies
The Raiders have had one of my least favorite off-seasons of the year. They let Crabtree go for Nelson, they wasted a third-round pick on Bryant, the pushed out one of the best defensive players of the league, and they are arguably a considerably worse roster than what they were last season. The Rams seem to be the antithesis of this. They get Suh, Peters, and Talib on defense while getting an extension done with Aaron Donald. On offense they let Watkins walk while bringing in Brandin Cooks. The Rams may be one of the most talented rosters in the league and this one will be all about how well they can put it together. Despite the fanfare of seeing Gruden at home on the sidelines, I’ll take the Rams to put the pedal to the metal early.

Pick: Rams -4.5 (High Confidence), Score: LAR 33 – OAK 16

Kyle Kontos is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive.