NFL Week 1 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2023)

by Pat Fitzmaurice |
Sep 08, 2023

There's no better time to bet NFL player props than in Week 1, before data from the new season starts flowing in. The sportsbooks have blind spots, and bettors can take advantage.

Let's dive in, shall we?

NFL Week 1 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions

Anthony Richardson UNDER 195.5 passing yards

Richardson may one day develop into a high-quality NFL passer. He certainly has an impressive arm. But Richardson was a one-year college starter, and his passing numbers at the University of Florida last year weren't exactly sterling — a 53.8% completion percentage and an average of 7.8 yards per attempt against college defenses. It's a good bet that Richardson will struggle to successfully throw against NFL defenses early on. The Colts could be exceedingly run-heavy with Shane Steichen calling the plays, as were the Eagles two years ago with Steichen as the offensive coordinator in Jalen Hurts' first season as an NFL starter. Hammer the under here.

Brock Purdy UNDER 236.5 passing yards

Purdy's late-season run with the 49ers was impressive, particularly for a rookie taken with the last pick of the NFL Draft. But Purdy didn't face many good pass defenses last season. In his five regular-season starts plus his first playoff game against Seattle, Purdy didn't face a defense that ranked better than 13th in DVOA against the pass. And yet, he only topped 236 yards in two of those six games. When he ran into a strong Dallas pass defense in the playoffs, Purdy was held to 214 passing yards and zero touchdowns. It seems unlikely that Purdy will dice up a good Steelers pass defense on the road this week.

J.K. Dobbins OVER 57.5 rushing yards

Few things in the NFL are more predictable than the incompetence of the Texans' run defense. Every year, the Houston run defense is a sieve against the run. In 2022, the Texans gave up a league-high 141.8 rushing yards per game to running backs, 5.2 yards per carry to running backs, and a league-high 22 touchdown runs to running backs. The Ravens are 10-point home favorites against the Texans this week, so they will have a run-friendly game script. Dobbins should smash this number.

D'Andre Swift under 32.5 rushing yards

The Eagles' backfield seems destined to be a three-way committee involving Swift, Kenneth Gainwell and Rashaad Penny — and Boston Scott might be in the mix, too. Philadelphia opens on the road against a New England defense that gave up only 79.6 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs last season. The under on Swift's rushing total seems like a good percentage play.

Michael Thomas over 42.5 receiving yards

Plagued by foot injuries for the last three years, Thomas is finally healthy. He isn't going to be the prolific target hog he was early in his career, but he can still be a high-quality possession receiver. In the three games Thomas played early last season, he cleared this yardage total all three times, averaging 5.3 catches and 57.0 receiving yards per game. Thomas faces a pass-funnel Titans defense that's terrific against the run but flimsy against the pass. Tennessee allowed 3,199 receiving yards to opposing wideouts last year, the third-highest total in the league.

Gabe Davis UNDER 45.5 receiving yards

The Jets are going to be a skull-and-crossbones matchup for quarterbacks and wide receivers all season. The Jets have a fierce pass rush and can put pressure on quarterbacks without blitzing. The Jets have arguably the best cover man in the league in second-year CB Sauce Gardner, and they have two other good cornerbacks in D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II. Last year, the Jets allowed a league-low 1,857 receiving yards to wide receivers. Davis relies on big plays, and the Jets simply aren't going to allow many big plays in the passing game this season.

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