NFL Week 10 Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Win Parlays (2025)
The good news is that I have hit at least one out of three anytime touchdown scorer & win parlays in each of the first nine weeks of the 2025 NFL season. I also still have a winning record overall for the year. The bad news is that I have had multiple instances of 1-2 weeks in a row. I would have been 2-1 last week if Green Bay had held its end of the bargain. Josh Jacobs scored, but the Packers lost as double-digit home favorites to Carolina.
There are some challenges ahead as we look to the Week 10 slate. There are not many heavy favorites on this week's board. Of the 13 games scheduled for Sunday and Monday, only two feature point spreads of seven points or more. There are also no games with implied totals of 50 points or more. Not coincidentally, Cincinnati (32nd among 32 NFL teams in defensive DVOA) and Dallas (31st) are on a bye this week. However, I believe I have identified some advantageous matchups that we can exploit to capitalize on this market. Below are my three favorite Week 10 anytime touchdown scorer & win parlays.
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NFL Week 10 Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Win Parlays
Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (Game in Berlin)
My first Week 10 anytime touchdown scorer & win parlay is chalky. That statement alone gives my pick away, but indulge me while I explain my rationale. The Indianapolis Colts are playing the Atlanta Falcons as part of the NFL's International Series. Indianapolis enters this game with a 7-2 record and, per FTN, is second in the NFL in total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). Atlanta comes in with a record of 3-5 and ranks 20th in DVOA. While I would feel a bit more comfortable if this were a traditional Colts home game, I still think they are the better team. They should win this game and head into next week's bye with momentum for a potential playoff run.
This matchup sets up very well for Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. Taylor leads the NFL in total touchdowns and rushing yards. He has earned Pro Football Focus' (PFF) second-highest grade among full-time running backs and leads the league in yards per carry after contact. Atlanta has been a run funnel defense over the first half of the season. They rank fifth in the league in defensive DVOA versus the pass. However, the Falcons are just 24th in DVOA against the run and 25th in PFF's run defense grade. They have allowed the second-highest adjusted-line yards per play. On top of all that, they have ceded four receiving touchdowns to opposing backs this year. That is tied for the most in the NFL. There are multiple paths to Taylor scoring on Sunday, and I look for him to do so in a Colts victory.
Bet: Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Indianapolis Colts to Win (-140 at BetMGM)
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
First, let's get the Moneyline part out of the way. We know any NFL team can win or lose on any given Sunday. That is especially the case in divisional matchups. But the Buffalo Bills have defeated the Miami Dolphins in seven straight matchups. They have also scored at least 30 points in six of those seven games. And past iterations of the Dolphins were better than the current version. Buffalo is the biggest favorite on this week's board and has the highest implied total. Please give me the Bills to beat Miami on Sunday afternoon. The anytime touchdown selection is the tricky part, as I have three players I like.
A James Cook anytime touchdown/Bills Moneyline parlay is -120 at Caesars Sportsbook. If you prefer Josh Allen, you can get him at +135 on BetMGM. I do not have a problem with taking either player. Both have scored seven times in eight games. Cook has scored in five out of eight games, while Allen has scored in four. However, Allen has only rushed for one total touchdown in the seven aforementioned games versus Miami. Cook has had success against the Dolphins, but an ankle injury has limited him. While Cook and/or Allen can score, I believe there is a Bill with better value on the board. I am talking about tight end Dalton Kincaid.
Kincaid has scored in four out of seven games this season. That includes Week 3, when he scored and led Buffalo in receiving yards versus these same Dolphins. Miami has been a pass-funnel offense. They rank 30th in DVOA against the pass compared to 14th versus the run. The Dolphins have been especially beatable by tight ends. They have given up six scores and rank 30th in DVOA versus the position. Three of those six touchdowns came last week at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. That game should provide a blueprint for how to attack Miami's defense. The implied probability of this parlay sits at just 26%. However, given the matchup and Kincaid's recent history, I believe we are getting excellent value here.
Bet: Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Buffalo Bills to Win (+284 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit Lions at Washington Commanders
I don't always like backing the Detroit Lions on the road. However, this is another instance in which last week's results can give a glimpse into the future. The Seattle Seahawks traveled to Washington and dominated the Commanders with their top-ranked passing offense. Detroit has not experienced the same level of success it has in recent years. But they still enter this matchup as a top-10 passing offense based on DVOA. Washington's passing defense ranks 24th, and they are an equal opportunity unit when it comes to allowing production. The Commanders rank 21st or worse in DVOA versus No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 wide receivers, as well as tight ends and running backs. Pick a Detroit Lion, and he likely has a favorable matchup in the passing game against Washington. But I think one player's chances of scoring stand out above the rest.
The Commanders allow the most yards in the NFL to opposing slot receivers. They also play man coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the league. And while Lions slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has a reputation as a zone beater, he has been among the league's best wideouts against man coverage this season. St. Brown leads all receivers in receptions (20) and touchdowns (six) versus man looks in 2025. He also averages 3.49 yards per route run against man coverage. That is the fourth-highest mark among 53 wide receivers with at least 10 targets versus man. This is an elite matchup for St. Brown, no matter how you slice it. I expect Detroit to coast to victory against a Jayden Daniels-less Commanders squad, and St. Brown to score at least one touchdown in the process.
Bet: Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Detroit Lions to Win (+110 at BetMGM)