3 NFL Week 10 Bets to Fade (2024)

by Mike Fanelli |
Nov 09, 2024

Everyone loves betting on the NFL. However, knowing which bets to make is critical. It's also important to know which bets you should avoid making.

Today, I have three bets you should avoid making in Week 10. I also have three bets in the same games you should make instead. Let's dive into it!

NFL Week 10 Bets to Fade

Avoid Betting Dalton Kincaid Under 44.5 Receiving Yards (-105)

Kincaid has averaged 36.9 receiving yards per game this year. However, his role on offense is increasing, earning six or more targets in six consecutive games, including a season-high 10 last week.
The young tight end should see an uptick in targets on Sunday with Keon Coleman (wrist) out and Amari Cooper (wrist) questionable to play after missing the Week 9 game.
He leads the team in targets (51), target per route run rate (26%), and first-read targets (33) this season.
Indianapolis has surrendered 59.2 yards per game to tight ends this year. They have given up 70.3 yards per game to tight ends over the past seven weeks, surrendering 71 or more in 71.4% of the games, including three straight matchups.

Instead, Bet Josh Downs Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Last week, Downs had 60 receiving yards on nine targets in a rough game for the Colts. The second-year pro has averaged 58.7 yards per game this season.
Unfortunately, Michael Pittman Jr. (back) won't play this week, leading to more targets for Downs. He has a 35.4% first-read target share in the games with Joe Flacco under center.
Downs has averaged 69.3 yards per game with Flacco, totaling 60 or more in every contest, including 66 or more in three of those four matchups.
The Bills have surrendered 87.4 yards per game to slot receivers, giving up 66 or more in 77.7% of their contests, including at least 100 in almost half the matchups. Downs has run nearly 85% of his route from the slot this year.

Avoid Betting Justin Herbert Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Herbert has averaged 215.6 passing yards per game this season despite averaging 22.8 pass attempts and 144.5 yards per game over the first four weeks, totaling 179 or fewer yards in every contest.
By comparison, he has averaged 33 pass attempts and 286.8 yards per game over the past four contests, totaling 237 or more in every matchup, including at least 279 in three straight weeks.
Tennessee has held quarterbacks to 172 yards per game this season, including 96 or fewer in nearly half of their matchups. However, they've faced several awful quarterbacks.
The Titans will be without star cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (quad) this week. They have surrendered 151.2 yards per game with him and 206.7 per game without the star cornerback.

Instead, Bet J.K. Dobbins to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-105)

Dobbins has six rushing touchdowns this year, tying Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara for the sixth-most in the NFL. He has 100% of the Chargers' rushing touchdowns and 37.5% of their offensive scores.
Since the team's Week 5 bye, Dobbins has four touchdowns. He has a 5.7% touchdown rate since the bye, scoring once per 17.5 rushing attempts. Last week, the veteran had two touchdowns.
The Titans have had a solid run defense, surrendering the fourth-fewest rushing yards to running backs. However, they have given up 11 touchdowns to running backs, allowing at least five in the air and on the ground.
Tennessee has surrendered five rushing touchdowns and two receiving scores to running backs over the past three weeks, giving up at least two in every matchup.

Avoid Betting Jonnu Smith Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Smith has averaged 37.8 receiving yards per game this season, totaling 46 or more in half of the contests.
After averaging 19.5 yards per game over the first four contests, the veteran has averaged 56 yards per game over the past four weeks. Smith has over 45 yards in three of the past four games, including last week.
The veteran has seen an uptick in targets lately, averaging 6.8 per game over the past four weeks, earning six or more in every matchup. His 12 targets over the past two weeks are more than Jaylen Waddle's total (eight).
Los Angeles has surrendered 59.3 yards per game to tight ends this season. They have given up 66.8 yards per game to tight ends over their past four contests, giving up 40 or more in all but one of those four matchups.

Instead, Bet Kyren Williams to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-175)

While the odds are less than ideal, Williams is almost guaranteed to score a touchdown. He has 10 scores this year, the second-most in the NFL, entering Week 10 behind Derrick Henry (13).
He has had at least one touchdown in all but one game this season. Williams has more games with over one touchdown (two) than not scoring at all (one).
The star running back is also a great bet to score the first Rams touchdown (+155). Williams has had the first Los Angeles touchdown in seven consecutive games to start the year.
Miami has given up 12 touchdowns to running backs, including the second-most rushing scores (10). They have surrendered at least one touchdown to running backs in every game this season.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.