NFL Week 10 Composite Power Ratings (2024)

Each week, I compile power ratings from a bevy of respected sources across the NFL handicapping community. Power ratings are designed to identify how many points a team would be favored by against an average team on a neutral field. By calculating the difference in ratings between the two teams (and adjusting for home-field advantage), you can get a ratings-implied spread to compare to the actual spread. In the second section, I’ve done that while assuming a value of 1.5 points for home-field advantage and using the composite spread from all the sources. Additionally, I’ve provided some comments on trends and numbers that stood out to me.

Week 10 NFL Composite Power Ratings

• We don’t see a ton of movement in the ratings this week outside of Dallas, who is expected to be without Dak Prescott for several weeks. I’m honestly a little shocked that Dallas didn’t get a bigger downgrade with the Prescott news. But, that could be due to a couple of things. One, Dallas was already playing quite terribly, so a lot of their underperformance may have already been baked in. Second, we’ve seen Cooper Rush play before. While he’s certainly not the best backup there is, he probably provides a slightly higher floor than the backup situation for other teams. Where I think Dallas really gets into trouble is if Ceedee Lamb is unable to play, in which case the Cowboys would have a bottom-five set of skill players in the league.

Week 10 Matchups

• One of this week’s biggest disagreements in market ratings and spread is the matchup between the 49ers and Buccaneers. The ratings above do not account for any situational factors (outside of home-field advantage), but it’s worth noting that the 49ers are coming off of their bye while the Buccaneers last played in an overtime game on Monday Night Football. San Francisco also seems like it might be getting healthier on offense with the potential return of Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings. I’m not necessarily on the 49ers this week, but I struggle to see how the rating difference and spread are this far off in favor of Tampa Bay.
• The New York Jets started out this week as slight underdogs against the Arizona Cardinals, but have since been bet out to be 1.5-point favorites. The ratings, however, suggest that the original line was closer to correct, which is also the way that I lean. I don’t think either of these teams’ records is representative of their true skill, so it makes some sense why there’s disagreement in the market.