NFL Week 10 First TD Scorers Picks & Predictions (2024)
Someone must score the first touchdown of the game. This article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
I track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 10.
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NFL Week 10 First Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions
New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have been trashed by opposing running backs all season. I expect it to be the same this week. The Giants are not much better at defending the run, but the Panthers have allowed 15 rushing touchdowns compared to seven for the Giants. Tyrone Tracy Jr. has taken the starting gig from Devin Singletary over the past five games.
He averages 50% of snaps but has played 68.4% in the last five games. He has the best matchup for any running back, which gives us a high chance of success.
Pick: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (+500 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara received 38 opportunities last week against Carolina in Derek Carr's return from injury. He was targeted nine times and ran the ball 29 times. He finished with 215 total yards but did not find the end zone. I think he will end his three-game touchdown-less streak this week.
The Falcons are decent at stopping the run but have some trouble with backs catching the ball. They allow six receptions to running backs per game and have allowed a receiving touchdown to running backs in three straight games. We will look for Kamara to find the end zone this week.
Pick: Alvin Kamara (+550 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs took no time to make DeAndre Hopkins a top target for Patrick Mahomes. He drew nine targets last week, including two in the red zone, which both went for scorers. They have a tough matchup against the Broncos this week, but Hopkins may miss Patrick Surtain II.
Hopkins ran 45% of his routes from the slot last week. Surtain typically lines up against the outside man. I think Hopkins will have the best matchup for the Chiefs this week.
Pick: DeAndre Hopkins (+850 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts
Josh Downs has been solid all season, but his numbers rise with Joe Flacco. He has never had fewer than 60 receiving yards and nine targets this season with Flacco and commands a 27.3% target share.
Downs has seven targets in the red zone in seven games, which is a good sign in a positive matchup. The Bills allow the eighth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers. Downs is undervalued based on his usage and is a solid play this week.
Pick: Josh Downs (+1500 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Justin Jefferson started the season scoring in four consecutive games but has only scored once since then. He has back-to-back weeks with 100 yards but has not found the end zone. The Jaguars are dead last in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) against the pass this season and have allowed 19 passing touchdowns.
There is no way they can keep Jefferson contained. He likely finds the end zone for the sixth time this season.
Pick: Justin Jefferson (+550 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears
D'Andre Swift has played at least 60% of the snaps in five consecutive games and has received at least 16 carries during that time. The Bears have leaned on him in their last two favorable rushing matchups.
Caleb Williams has had moments this season but needs a good running game to be effective. The Patriots allowed 4.5 yards per attempt and the seventh-most rushing yards per game. Swift should get plenty of touches throughout this game.
Pick: D’Andre Swift (+550 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Christian McCaffrey is expected to make his season debut this Sunday against the Buccaneers. He should be eased into action in his first game back, but I expect him to be on the field early. He certainly will not reach his average of 21.9 touches per game of last season, but he should see a lot of work on passing downs.
The Buccaneers have been shredded by backs catching passes. They allow the second-most receiving yards and receptions to running backs this season. They have also allowed four receiving touchdowns to running backs in their last three games. McCaffrey may ease his way back by being an elite pass-catcher.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey (+400 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Commanders
The Steelers allow the second-fewest points per game this season, but teams have been able to score early against them. They have allowed 5.5 points per first quarter and 5.7 over their last three games. I expect the Steelers' defense to make it hard on the Commanders, but I think they strike first, and it is probably through the air.
Noah Brown caught the Hail Mary touchdown a couple of weeks ago. He followed that up with another six-target game, catching five passes for 60 yards. He is building chemistry with Jayden Daniels. Brown is becoming the second option at receiver for the Commanders. They will need him this week if Terry McLaurin draws too much attention.
Pick: Noah Brown (+1500 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers
Surprisingly, the Titans score the third-most points per first quarter (5.7), but the Chargers are close at 5.4. The Chargers also allow the fewest points per game and should limit this offense. Ladd McConkey has been a go-to target for Justin Herbert in the red zone.
McConkey has six targets inside the 20-yard line this season, with five catches and three touchdowns. The Titans limit passing yards but have allowed 12 passing touchdowns this season. McConkey is trending in the right direction and gaining the team's trust.
Pick: Ladd McConkey (+650 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
The Eagles finally broke their streak of not scoring in the first quarter last week. They now average 0.9 points per first quarter after an early Saquon Barkley touchdown. The Cowboys are starting Cooper Rush in place of Dak Prescott, and their offense may not fair too well.
The Cowboys have allowed three rushing scores to quarterbacks this season. Hurts has scored on the ground in three consecutive games. He has eight rushing touchdowns this season and could notch another in this favorable matchup.
Pick: Jalen Hurts (+650 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals
The other two backs in Arizona scored last week, but James Conner led the way on the ground. He played 48% of snaps and recorded 18 carries for 107 yards. He averaged 5.9 yards per attempt but did not find the end zone.
Conner has 33 red-zone attempts this season, which leads the team by a wide margin. He also leads the league in missed tackles forced. Things did not bounce his way last week, but I expect him to make up for it this week.
Pick: James Conner (+600 via DraftKings Sportsbook)