NFL Week 10 Line Movement Analysis (2023)
Tracking how lines move throughout an NFL week can provide meaningful information to bettors. In general, lines become more sharp throughout the week as the sportsbook collects more information.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line.
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NFL Week 10 Line Movement Analysis
The table below is intended to summarize the home team spread and total movement for this week’s games to help provide context for any significant movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| ATL | ARI | 2.5 | 1.5 | -1 | 42 | 43 | 1 |
| CLE | BAL | -5.5 | -6 | -0.5 | 39.5 | 38 | -1.5 |
| DEN | BUF | -7.5 | -7.5 | 0 | 45.5 | 47 | 1.5 |
| CAR | CHI | -3.5 | -3 | 0.5 | 40 | 38.5 | -1.5 |
| HOU | CIN | -8 | -6.5 | 1.5 | 46.5 | 47 | 0.5 |
| NYG | DAL | -15.5 | -16.5 | -1 | 39.5 | 38.5 | -1 |
| SF | JAX | 2.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 44.5 | 45 | 0.5 |
| DET | LAC | 1.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 48.5 | 48.5 | 0 |
| NYJ | LV | 2.5 | 1 | -1.5 | 36.5 | 36 | -0.5 |
| NO | MIN | 2.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 41 | 41 | 0 |
| IND | NE | 2 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 43.5 | 43 | -0.5 |
| GB | PIT | -3.5 | -3 | 0.5 | 37 | 39 | 2 |
| WAS | SEA | -6 | -6 | 0 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 1 |
| TEN | TB | -1 | -1 | 0 | 39.5 | 38.5 | -1 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via @betstamp | Open odds as of Monday morning | Current odds as of Thursday afternoon)
NFL Week 10 Spread Movement Analysis
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals: -8 ?' -6.5
The Bengals are dealing with injuries in the WR room, as both Chase and Higgins did not practice on Thursday. It will be important to monitor over the next few days if their top two WRs will suit up. The Texans arrive in Cincinnati off a win against the Bucs in which rookie QB CJ Stroud put the league on notice. Coming off his worst performance of the season in Week 8, Stroud threw for 470 yards and 5 TDs. The line movement likely is indicative of both belief in Stroud and the Bengals’ offense possibly operating at less than full strength.
New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders: +2.5 ?' +1
The Raiders put together a dominant performance in HC Antonio Pierce’s debut. They got some help with the Giants having to thrust rookie undrafted QB Tommy DeVito into action after Daniel Jones tore his ACL. Regardless, they look to continue to turn things around and get to face the Zach Wilson-led Jets team at home. The Jets’ defense could only do so much last week in a home loss against the Chargers. Both these teams struggle on offense, with neither side scoring over 18 ppg.
NFL Week 10 Total Movement Analysis
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 39.5 ?' 38
The Ravens defeated the Browns 28 – 3 back in Week 4. That was the first game without Deshaun Watson when the Browns unexpectedly had to start rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Ravens will now get to face Watson in his second game back from injury. It is hard to read too much into the Browns’ blowout win against the Cardinals, who had to start Clayton Tune. Either way, both of these defenses have been dominant this season, so it is not surprising to see this total drop.
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers: 37 ?' 39
The Packers finally got Aaron Jones going last week in a home win against a Matthew Stafford-less Rams. He seemed back to full strength after nursing a hamstring injury for most of the season, handling 24 touches on the day, which more than doubled any previous game this season. Jones may be the key to jump start the Packers offense. Meanwhile, the Steelers are averaging 2.2 more ppg in the three games since WR Diontae Johnson returned from injury in Week 7.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
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- Thor Nystrom's Best College Football Week 11 Bets (2023)
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