NFL Week 10 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2022)
Week 9 was a bloodbath. A massacre. It was the Red Wedding, and I was the guest of honor.
To give you an idea of how bad things went, I bet the under on Joe Mixon’s rushing yards. I think Joe Mixon just ran for another first down against the Panthers.
It was gory. But, hey, a fresh start beckons. We’re on to Week 10.
Actually, I owe you a quick recap of last week’s unfortunate selections and how they fared …
The wins: Sam Ehlinger under 202.5 passing yards, Leonard Fournette under 79.5 rushing + receiving yards, Jaylen Waddle over 68.5 receiving yards.
The losses: Aaron Rodgers under 262.5 passing yards, Justin Herbert over 282.5 passing yards, Raheem Mostert over 65.5 rushing yards, Joe Mixon under 67.5 rushing yards, Travis Etienne under 77.5 rushing yards, T.J. Hockenson under 35.5 receiving yards.
Let’s get to the plays for Week 10 …
Last week: 3-6
Season record: 35-27
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday night.
NFL Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions
Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 270.5 passing yards
This is an awfully big number, but admittedly, Tua and the turbocharged Miami passing game are capable of beating it. Tua has thrown for 382 and 302 yards in his last two starts. But Tua will be facing a run-funnel Cleveland defense that has seen the second-fewest pass attempts (242) in the league. The Browns’ run defense is a sieve, and opponents are wisely attacking Cleveland on the ground. It’s also worth noting that Tua averaging an unsustainable 9.2 yards per pass attempt. Unless he has another hyper-efficient passing day, Tua is going to need heavy passing volume to hit a number this big. Opponents are averaging 30.3 pass attempts and 208.3 passing yards against the Browns.
Russell Wilson OVER passing 225.5 yards
Wilson has topped this number in three of his last four starts, and despite the shaky beginning to his season, he’s averaging 242.0 passing yards per game in 2022. The Titans have an extreme pass funnel defense. They’re good against the run and weak against the pass, which is why Tennessee’s opponents are throwing on a whopping 73.8% of their offensive snaps. The Titans are giving up 275.6 passing yards per game.
Saquon Barkley OVER 92.5 rushing yards
This one is irresistible. Barkley is a top-four running back, and the Texans get destroyed by running backs on a near-weekly basis. Houston is giving up a league-high 154.3 rushing yards per game to RBs. Two weeks ago, Derrick Henry trampled the Texans for 219 rushing yards. Last week, Miles Sanders gashed them for 93 rushing yards. Barkley has only topped this number in 3-of-8 games this season, but against Houston’s Swiss cheese run defense, Barkley is poised for his fourth 100-yard rushing day of the season.
Josh Jacobs UNDER 87.5 rushing yards
Jacobs rattled off three consecutive 100-yard rushing days from Week 4 to Week 7, but he’s been held to 43 and 67 rushing yards in his last two games. This week, Jacobs will be facing a tough Colts run defense that’s holding RBs to 3.8 yards per carry. The Indianapolis defense ranks fifth in DVOA against the run.
Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 69.5 receiving yards
My colleague Derek Brown included this note in his Week 10 installment of The Primer: In the five games this year in which St. Brown has played full-time snaps, he’s seen a massive 30.5% target share and has averaged 10.2 targets per game. St. Brown is likely to run a majority of his routes against Bears CB Kyler Gordon, who has allowed a 79.6% catch rate and a passer rating of 113.8 on throws into his coverage.
Darnell Mooney OVER 41.5 receiving yards
Mooney has topped this number in six straight games and has a hefty 28.6% target share over that stretch. Mooney will go up against a flammable Detroit pass defense giving up 190.9 receiving yards per game to WRs. The Lions have given up the fourth-most receiving yards to slot receivers, and Mooney has been lining up in the slot nearly 40% of the time.
Courtland Sutton UNDER 54.5 receiving yards
Sutton has gone cold. After averaging 83.4 receiving yards over his first five games, he’s averaged 16.7 receiving yards over his last three. Sutton has seen four or fewer targets in two of his last three games, and fellow Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy has out-targeted Sutton 25-16 over that stretch. Perhaps not coincidentally, Sutton’s three-game disengagement from the Denver offense coincides with rookie TE Greg Dulcich’s first three games as a Bronco. Dulcich has seen one more target than Sutton over that span. On Sunday, Sutton is likely to see a lot of Titans CB Kristian Fulton, PFF’s 35th highest-graded cornerback out of 113.
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