NFL Week 10 Preview & Predictions: Steelers vs. Commanders (2024)
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders have a long history and have played several meaningful games over the years. When the schedule came out, Week 10’s contest between the Steelers and Commanders was not expected to have any playoff significance... but it does.
Pittsburgh is 6-2 and leads the AFC North; Washington is 7-2 and leads the NFC East. Both hold a slim advantage over the second-place teams in their respective divisions and don’t want to lose that advantage this week. The Commanders are a -2.5-point home favorite but the spread opened with them as a 1.5-point underdog.
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Steelers vs. Commanders Betting Preview
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Details
- Opening Line: Commanders +1.5, O/U 43.5
- Closing Line: Commanders -2.5 (-118), O/U 45 (-112/-108)
- Location: Northwest Stadium, in Landover, MD
- Start Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Last Meeting: December 7, 2020 - Washington Commanders won, 23-17
Overview
Mike Tomlin does not get the credit he deserves. His decision to insert Russell Wilson at quarterback was panned despite the offense’s struggles with Justin Fields behind center. However, in two games as the starter, Wilson has guided the team to a pair of wins and revived a non-existent passing game.
With the passing game becoming more productive, Najee Harris has found it a little easier to find running lanes. In six games with Fields at quarterback, Harris ran for 70 yards or fewer in every game and scored once. In two games with Wilson under center, he has run for 102 and 114 yards and scored once.
However, Fields deserves some credit as he did help the Steelers get off to a 4-2 start while Wilson dealt with a calf injury. With the Ravens losing three games, the Steelers are surprisingly in control of the AFC North. When the season began, the Steelers had the longest odds to win the AFC North (+700 at BetMGM).
The Steelers are not the only surprise of the season. Washington opened the season at +1200 to win the NFC East. But here they are, with the best record in the division at 7-2. The key to that success? Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is playing more like a seasoned veteran than the rookie he is.
Daniels has the fifth-best QB Rating in the league (106.7) among season-long starters. He is completing 71.5% of his passes and is a heavy favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. However, his accuracy has tapered off the last few weeks after he exploded out of the gate with a 70.8% mark or better in his first four games.
Trends
- Commanders lead the all-time series vs. the Steelers at 43-33-3.
- Commanders are 4-0 against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU) at home.
- Steelers are 3-1 ATS and SU on the road.
- Russell Wilson is 3-2 as a starter vs. the Commanders with a QB Rating of 94.7.
Bottom Line
Both teams know their margin for error in the division is minimal and don’t want to give up their lead. There may be a little more pressure on Daniels and the Commanders to win after needing a Hail Mary to beat the Bears in Week 8. If Daniels has another so-so game as a passer, it is fair to start wondering if he’s been figured out.
Wilson has been playing well and is popular among Steelers fans for now, but it may just take one bad game and a loss for them to turn on him.
I don’t expect that game to be this one, but it is hard to say who wins. The Steelers’ defense will be the toughest Daniels has faced all season, and Wilson is still an unknown commodity after just two starts.
Pick: Under 45 Points (-108)