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NFL Week 10 Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2024)

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NFL Week 10 is here, and it’s time to lock in some best bets and props before the games kick off. Picking matchups against the spread and betting on the over/under is more commonplace, but a Same Game Parlay (SGP) gives us even more added action. Let’s find some plus-money SGP picks for every game on the NFL Week 10 Sunday afternoon slate.

Keep in mind the odds below are accurate as of writing but are always subject to change up until kickoff. Keep track of any of the latest NFL injury news and odds movement before locking in any of these SGP bets. Without further ado, let’s dive into the best NFL Week 10 Same Game Parlay bets.

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Best NFL Week 10 Same Game Parlay Bets 

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders

The Commanders won again last week and are now 7-2 on the season. The Steelers (6-2) are coming off a bye and look to continue their own hot start. This is one of only a few Week 10 matchups between teams with winning records and it features two squads that many expected to be worse than they are. 

As impressive as Washington has been this year, this is as good a time as any to sell high. The Commanders have survived close wins in back-to-back games, and four of their victories this year have come by one score. They've also benefited from easier matchups lately as the last three games were against the Panthers, Bears, and Giants - a combined record of 8-18. In fact, only one of Washington's victories this season was against a team with a winning record (Cardinals). 

The Steelers have also faced some softer opponents overall, but they've earned wins in a more comfortable fashion. Five of Pittsburgh's six victories this year have come by 8+ points, and the other was by 7 points. The Steelers defense is elite, allowing just 14.9 PPG (2nd in NFL). The unit has allowed more than 20 points in a game just once this year. 

Let's now get to some notable trends in Pittsburgh's favor this week. The Steelers are coming off a bye and are road underdogs. Over the past seven seasons, Mike Tomlin's teams are 7-0 straight up and 5-2 ATS after the bye. Tomlin is also covering at a 61% clip as a road underdog in his career. The Steelers are already 2-0 SU as underdogs this season, too. Plus, Tomlin is 26-6 SU against rookie quarterbacks in his time with Pitt. 

These are tried and true trends that are impossible to ignore. The bye week is especially valuable as it allows Russell Wilson to get more comfortable in the offense. On the other side of the ball, the defense should benefit from extra time to prep for Jayden Daniels. The Steelers also just bolstered their defensive line at the trade deadline this week, bringing in Preston Smith from the Packers. 

On that note, this is arguably the best pass rush that Daniels has faced this season. Giving Tomlin and the defense an extra week of prep could force the rookie QB into mistakes that he has mostly avoided thus far. Steelers have 10 interceptions through the first eight games and have more picks than touchdown passes allowed (8). Daniels hasn't thrown an interception in four straight games and seems overdue for one. 

The Commanders defense is allowing 143 rushing yards per game (4th-most in NFL) and 5.1 yards per carry (2nd-most). It's a good matchup for Najee Harris to rack up yards. The Pittsburgh lead back has rushed for 100+ in three straight games and has at least 69 in six of eight games this year. 

Parlay Odds: +425

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts

At 7-2 and on a four-game winning streak, the Bills look like one of the league's best teams. On the flip side, the 4-5 Colts have suffered back-to-back losses and are trending in the wrong direction. Most of the stats, matchups, and vibes point to Buffalo as the deserving favourite. Yet, we're going with Indianapolis to kick off this SGP. 

First, this is a weird sandwich spot for the Bills. They could be in for a letdown after just beating the division-rival Dolphins at home on a game-winning field goal last week. Buffalo will then host the Chiefs in a marquee AFC matchup next week. In between, there's this inconsequential road game at Indy.

Meanwhile, the Colts should be plenty motivated after losing one-possession games in the past two weeks. In fact, all five of Indianapolis' losses this year have been by one score. The Colts have been a covering machine this season, going 7-2 ATS overall and 5-1 ATS as underdogs. They are also 4-0 ATS at home so far. Indy failed to cover last week at Minnesota but was right in the game until the final minutes of the fourth quarter. 

The big discussion surrounding the Colts is the benching of Anthony Richardson in favor of Joe Flacco. The offense was admittedly underwhelming with Flacco under center last week. Still, Flacco (64.4% completion rate, 94.5 QB rating) is the more efficient passer than Richardson (44.4%, 57.2). Plus, a home matchup against the more-beatable Bills defense presents optimism. Buffalo also allowed 27 points and 373 total yards to Miami and could be worn out here. 

Josh Downs has emerged as Flacco's clear favourite target. He has 6+ receptions in all four games that Flacco has played this season and 7+ in three of four. He's also led the team in catches and targets in each Flacco game. Downs is seeing heavy involvement as the short-yardage pass-catcher for quick completions, and that should continue as long as Flacco is at quarterback. Plus, the Bills have struggled to cover running backs and slot receivers all season with their zone coverage schemes. 

The Colts are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game in the league (149.8). Buffalo should have success on the ground with James Cook as the lead back. Cook had just 44 rush yards on 10 carries last game, but his day could've been a lot better with more touches. Two games ago, Cook racked up 111 yards on 17 carries. With the Bills dealing with multiple injuries in the receiving corps, the game plan could feature Cook and the run game. 

Parlay Odds: +700

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints 

Things have gone from bad to worse in New Orleans, with the Saints on a seven-game losing streak now. Even with Derek Carr back last week, they shockingly lost outright to the lowly Panthers as 7-point favourites. It resulted in head coach Dennis Allen getting fired ahead of this week's divisional matchup against the Falcons. 

Maybe the coach firing puts a positive jolt into the team, but it's hard to buy into the Saints at this point. They're still dealing with multiple injuries on both sides of the ball. Chris Olave is also now likely out after suffering a bad concussion last week. Plus, they just traded away top corner Marshon Lattimore to Washington. 

On the other side, the Falcons have won five of their last six games and are averaging 28.7 PPG in this stretch. They're also 4-1 ATS over the past five weeks. Although the Atlanta defense has been shaky at times, the offense continues to be productive. Kirk Cousins has especially been more efficient over the past month than earlier this season. The New Orleans defense, meanwhile, is 26th in points allowed and 28th in total yards allowed per game. 

Bijan Robinson is one of the best all-around backs in the league with 632 rushing yards and 303 receiving yards through nine games. Let's just target the rushing production as the Saints are allowing 136.6 rush YPG (25th) and 5.1 YPC (30th). Though Robinson only had 28 rushing yards against New Orleans in Week 4, this is still a favorable matchup. Plus, he's been more productive lately with yardage totals of 86, 63, 103, and 95 over the past four games.

Though we're backing the Falcons here, Alvin Kamara should be featured in the Saints' passing game plenty. The offense is down to backup receivers with Olave out, and Kamara is now the best pass-catching option on most downs. He led the Saints in catches (6) and yards (60) last week. Kamara has 40+ receiving yards in six of the last eight games, including 42 yards on seven receptions against Atlanta in the first matchup. 

Parlay Odds: +405

Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Vikings looked like the right side in this game before Trevor Lawrence's shoulder injury. Now that he's likely out, Minnesota is in a much better spot with Mac Jones at quarterback for the Jaguars. The spread has shifted a few points in the Vikings' favor, so let's follow that line movement. 

Considering recent results of both teams, the Jaguars were originally getting too much respect as 4-point underdogs. Jacksonville has now covered three straight games, including the past two as dogs to the Packers and Eagles. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 1-2 ATS in their past three and barely edged out the Colts on Sunday Night Football last week. We're bound to see regression for both teams in the opposite direction. 

Lawrence's injury and presumed absence is a big worry for Jacksonville's offense. Mac Jones has only seen garbage-time playing time in two games this year. When we last saw him starting, though, he was stinking it up for the Patriots before they traded him away. Jones could be in trouble against the blitz-happy Vikings defense - especially with a shaky offensive line blocking for him. 

After a hot start to the season, Sam Darnold and the Minnesota offense has come back down to Earth in recent games. However, this is a favourable matchup against the Jaguars' weak pass defense. The Jags are allowing the second-most passing yards per game this year (264.3) and are getting torched through the air on a regular basis. Darnold has 250+ pass yards in four of the past seven games with 240 in another. He's taken advantage of soft matchups before and should do it again here. 

Jacksonville has also allowed a league-high 19 passing touchdowns this season, averaging just over two allowed per game. Justin Jefferson hasn't scored in the past two games despite going for 115 and 137 yards. He's due to find the end zone in this matchup. Two other Vikings wideouts scored last week, and Darnold should be looking to his star receiver more this time around. 

Parlay Odds: +480

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs 

After surviving in overtime on Monday Night Football, the Chiefs remain undefeated. The two-time defending champs continue to figure it out even while they allow lesser teams to hang around. Though Kansas City should win again at home this weekend, the Broncos as underdogs of more than a touchdown is too good to pass up. 

On the surface, the public perception of the Broncos may be low after they just lost by 31 on the road to Baltimore. However, with all due respect, the Raven’s offense is a juggernaut right now compared to a Chiefs attack that's overperformed to this point while overcoming turnover issues and injuries. It's always scary fading Patrick Mahomes, but we're due for an underwhelming performance from the offense. 

It could come here in a divisional matchup against a Broncos defense that's allowing just 17.9 PPG (3rd in NFL) and 295.2 total yards per game (6th). Vance Joseph's schemes use aggressive blitzing and heavy man coverage. That could be an issue for a KC offense that's relying too heavily on Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins in the receiving corps. 

The Chiefs may also opt to go with a run-focused offense with Mahomes suffering an ankle injury last game and the Broncos being stout against the pass. Plus, the Chiefs have a marquee matchup looming next week against Buffalo and will likely want to keep Mahomes upright.

On the other side, the Chiefs have an elite defense too (4th in PPG and 5th in YPG. Yet, Bo Nix has been running the offense well - besides last week. Sean Payton is making things easy on his rookie quarterback and it's allowed Denver's offense to usually be just good enough in tough matchups and take advantage of soft defenses. 

The Chiefs are 1-3 ATS when favored by 6 or more points this season. Plus, only two of the Chiefs' eight wins this year have been by more than a touchdown. Payton, meanwhile, is 9-4 ATS as an underdog of 7 points or more and 60% ATS overall as an underdog in his coaching career. 

All in all, take the Broncos to cover as road dogs and grab the under as well for this SGP. This should be a lower-scoring, slow-paced matchup. Denver will want to stay within striking distance while the Chiefs may take their foot off the gas in the second half with a lead. Plus, throw in the under for the second half. 

It's obviously a huge risk taking the under on any Kelce prop, but this is an under-the-radar time to do it. The Broncos have allowed 50+ receiving yards to only one opposing tight end in nine games while giving up 41.3 yards per game to tight ends on average this year. Kelce is coming off one of his best games of his career with 14 receptions and 100 yards on Monday Night Football. The Denver defense should be focused on stopping Kelce. 

Parlay Odds: +575

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The 49ers just had their bye week, which came at a great time considering how many injuries they've dealt with. On that front, Christian McCaffrey is likely to return for his season debut this weekend. It goes without saying that CMC will make the San Fran offense notably more dangerous and efficient. 

Over the past five seasons, Kyle Shanahan's 49ers are 4-1 after a bye week with three of those four wins coming by 6+ points. Plus, road favourites coming off a bye are covering at a 60% clip over the past 20 years. So far this season, they are 2-0 SU and ATS. San Francisco should continue this trend, especially since Bucs head coach Todd Bowles is 0-5 ATS when facing a team off its bye. 

As for Tampa Bay, it's on a short week after just playing a competitive game on Monday night at Kansas City. The quick turnaround against another tough opponent puts the Buccaneers in a tough spot here - even if they are at home. Mike Evans will likely miss one more game as the offense still tries to make do without him and Chris Godwin. The attack has been respectable in their absences, but the 49ers defense with extra prep time should limit things. 

The Bucs are allowing 273.9 passing yards per game to opposing QBs, the third-highest mark in the league. The defense has also given up 18 passing TDs over nine games (second-highest). Tampa's secondary has especially struggled over the past three games. Check out how those opposing QBs fared:  

  • Patrick Mahomes: 291 yards, 3 TD
  • Kirk Cousins: 276 yards, 4 TD
  • Lamar Jackson: 281 yards, 5 TD

Even with McCaffrey back, the San Francisco offense should attack that weak secondary. Plus, the 49ers would be smart to ease CMC back in with a lighter workload in his first game. Purdy is averaging 262.6 pass yards per game with 10 passing scores over eight games. He has at least 250 yards in five of eight games with 244 in another. 

Cade Otton has been the go-to guy for Baker Mayfield in the Tampa passing game with Godwin and Evans out. The tight end has 77, 81, and 100 receiving yards in the past three games with 8+ receptions and 10+ targets in each. Even if the 49ers look to shut him down, Otton should see enough volume to get 50+ yards again. 

Parlay Odds: +420

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

Coming off back-to-back losses on the road, Chicago is in a good spot to return to the win column at home. New England is now 2-7 after losing again last week. Though the Patriots did just cover as underdogs against the Titans, they needed an unlikely touchdown as time expired to force overtime at all. 

Meanwhile, this is a prime get-right opportunity for the Bears. They return home, where they're 4-0 SU and ATS compared to 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS on the road this season. That's been very evident with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. Check out his home/road splits in four games apiece:

  • Home: 67.3% completion rate, 105.1 QB rating, 7:1 TD:INT, 9 sacks
  • Road: 57.1% completion rate, 67.2 QB rating, 2:4 TD:INT, 20 sacks 

The Chicago offense put up just 9 points in the loss to Arizona last week. Williams and the attack should be more comfortable in this home matchup. The Patriots are allowing 361.4 total yards per game (26th in NFL) with struggles against both the run and pass. Williams has 304 and 226 passing yards in his past two home games. He can have some success through the air against a New England defense that allowed 240 yards to Mason Rudolph last week. 

Hunter Henry has 40+ receiving yards in all three games, and Drake Maye has played meaningful snaps. In the past two, Henry had seven catches for 56 yards and eight catches for 92 yards to lead all Pats pass-catchers. The tight end is a favourite target and safety valve for the rookie quarterback. The Bears are allowing 55.12 receiving yards per game to tight ends this year. 

Parlay Odds: +625

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers

Both the Titans and Chargers are coming off wins last week ahead of this AFC matchup. The spread and total suggest Los Angeles will win comfortably in a low-scoring game at home. Let's bank on both happening but go with a pair of alt lines to reduce the risk. 

The Chargers are allowing a league-low 12.6 PPG this season. They haven't given up more than 20 points in a game all year and have held teams to 17 points or fewer in seven of eight games. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has his unit playing at a high level right now, and that should continue at home against a subpar offense. 

The Titans are averaging just 17.5 points and 296.4 total yards per game (both 27th in NFL). It looks like Will Levis will be back at QB, which doesn't matter too much as he's not a huge upgrade over Mason Rudolph. The offense will likely be conservative with Levis to keep him healthy and go with a run-focused attack. 

On the other side, the Titans are still allowing a league-low 269.1 total yards per game with the best-passing defense in the NFL. Though the Chargers offense has woken up recently with Justin Herbert and the passing attack picking up, they still like to play a physical style with a strong run game. This matchup could force LA to go back to that run-first mentality. 

The under is now 7-1 in Chargers games. This continues to be a profitable strategy, with Vegas setting those totals a tad too high. As for the spread, the Chargers are 5-1 ATS as favorites this year, while the Titans are 1-7 ATS overall (1-4 ATS as underdogs). Tennessee just survived in overtime at home against the lowly Patriots and now go on the road. The spread indicates Tennessee will regress back to the team that got blown out by Detroit and Buffalo and the two games prior.

One bright spot for the Titans this week can be Tony Pollard. He's run for 60+ yards in seven of eight games this year, averaging 77.8 yards per contest. He's also seen at least 16 carries in all but two games so far. Even against a tough Chargers defense, Pollard should see enough volume to get to 60 rushing yards once again. As noted above, the Titans likely want to go with a run-focused offensive game plan in Levis' return from injury.

Parlay Odds: +650

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys 

Usually, the Eagles vs. Cowboys rivalry matchups are close throughout as appointment television viewing. Well, this week's divisional showdown features two teams moving in opposite directions, and the spread indicates just that. Let's lean right into that and back the Eagles as road dogs to kick off this SGP. 

The Cowboys are now 3-5 and stuck in a three-game losing streak. Now Dak Prescott is out for the next several weeks after suffering a hamstring injury last game. It's Cooper Rush under center for Dallas, and his six career starts in seven NFL seasons. It's hard to get excited about the Cowboys offense with Rush at QB - especially since the attack was underperforming anyway. 

After an up-and-down start to the season, Philadelphia has now won four straight games and is back on track. Jalen Hurts has been more efficient running the offense while Saquon Barkley looks unstoppable in the backfield - reverse hurdles and all. Now the offense could get both A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert back healthy this week. The Eagles have started to hit their stride on the defensive side of the ball too. 

Over the past four games since the bye week, the Philly defense is allowing 13.3 PPG with 16 sacks and five turnovers - including three last week. Vic Fangio's unit was shaky earlier this season but is now a more consistent difference-maker. That's bad news for a backup QB and an offense that lacks playmakers. On that note, CeeDee Lamb suffered a shoulder injury last week, and he could be limited, though he's likely to play. 

Interestingly, the favorite is 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings between Dallas and Philly. Plus, the Eagles have been road warriors this year with a 3-1 ATS mark on the road compared to 1-3 ATS at home. They allowed Jacksonville to hang around last week but easily could've won by double digits. 

The Eagles will presumably lead this game comfortably in the second half and go with a run-heavy game plan. That's been the case anyway with how well Saquon Barkley is running it these days. Take the under on Jalen Hurts rushing yards, as he won't need to make as many plays with his legs. Plus, Philly will want him to dial back the running and keep him healthy ahead of a big Thursday night matchup against Washington. Hurts has less than 40 rush yards in six of eight games this year. 

Parlay Odds: +445

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals 

The last time we saw the Jets, they pulled out a home win on Thursday Night Football last week over the Texans. It broke a five-game losing streak and made us believe in Aaron Rodgers and Co. once again. Can New York win back-to-back games - this time on the road against a red-hot Arizona team? 

The Cardinals are on a three-game winning streak after beating Chicago by 20 points last week. Believe it or not, Arizona is currently in first place in the NFC West. As impressive as the run has been, this is the prime time to sell high. The Cards are the worst first-place team in the league with a -7 point differential. Their defense is allowing 361.4 total yards per game (25th in NFL) and the offense is middle-of-the-pack with 23.0 PPG (15th). 

Even more notably, this is the first time the Cardinals have won three straight games since the 2021 season. If you've read these SGP articles, you know we've been wrongly picking against Arizona the past two weeks. Well, it's time to fade the Cardinals again. 

The Jets can carry the momentum of last week's win into this matchup. Plus, the mini-bye week gives New York a slight advantage as Rodgers and the offense continue to gel. The Jets have too much talent on both sides of the ball to not figure things out and right the ship eventually. This is a nice buy-low time for a team that's still right in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race.

Even with Davante Adams in town, Garrett Wilson is still a top target for Rodgers in the Jets' passing attack. Wilson has 90 and 113 yards in the past two games. Adams' presence actually puts Wilson in more favorable coverages now, too. Rodgers is also targeting both of them heavily at this point. 

Wilson has really picked it up over the past month, averaging 94.4 yards per game over the past five contests with 90+ in four. Overall, he has 60+ yards in six of nine games this year. He'll face a Cardinals defense that's allowing 158.6 receiving yards per game to wideouts (7th-most in NFL). 

The Jets are allowing just 158.2 passing yards per game (2nd in NFL). The defense has also held six of nine opposing quarterbacks to under 200 passing yards this year. Granted, some of those QBs haven't been the best - but these Jets’ pass defense is still among the top in the league. Kyler Murray is averaging 199.1 pass yards per game with less than 200 in four of the past six contests. 

Parlay Odds: +410

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