NFL Week 10 Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
Each week, I’ll be providing my favorite Sunday parlay, along with my favorite same-game parlay options for several games. Without further ado, here are this week’s parlay picks.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Week 10 NFL Parlay
- Packers +5
- Steelers +2
- Buccaneers -2.5
- Odds: +586
Rolling with a couple of home dogs and a short favorite this week. This is Green Bay’s last stand at home against a Cowboys team coming off a bye that I just don’t believe in yet. Fading Andy Dalton as a short road favorite is a profitable venture. And I think the Buccaneers will get enough pressure on Geno Smith to give him issues in Germany.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3), Total 44.5
- Buccaneers -2.5
- Geno Smith over 0.5 interceptions
As I mentioned before, I expect the Buccaneers to apply a ton of pressure to Smith, who hasn’t been nearly as good in a messy pocket. Tampa is second in the league in adjusted sack rate and is respectable against the run. Todd Bowles’ blitz-heavy scheme should result in at least one mistake from Geno. These international games tend to favor the more experienced teams, and I think the Buccaneers keep the winning streak alive after saving their season last weekend.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5), Total 50.5
- Over 50.5
- Patrick Mahomes over 300.5 passing yards
- Travis Etienne over 104.5 rushing and receiving yards
- Odds: +550
This game has the potential to be explosive. The Jaguars rank 27th in pass defense DVOA, setting up for a massive day from Mahomes and his pass catchers. Etienne has become the bell cow back for Jacksonville and has eclipsed this total in his last five games. He should succeed against a Chiefs defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA.
Houston Texans at New York Giants (-5), Total 40.5
- Texans +5
- Saquon Barkley over 93.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +257
This is an ugly one, but I think the Texans can keep this close after giving the Philadelphia Eagles a tougher run than anticipated last week. What scares me is a run defense that ranks dead last in DVOA. Barkley will get his by default, as the Giants don’t have anything else offensively. But I expect Houston to dare Daniel Jones to beat them, while the Texans offense should be able to move the ball against a mediocre Giants defense that ranks 25th in DVOA.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3), Total 48.5
- Over 48.5
- Justin Fields over 58.5 rushing yards
- Amon-Ra St. Brown over 67.5 receiving yards
- Odds: +525
This game has sneaky potential to be the highest scoring of the week. The Lions’ defense ranks 26th in DVOA, while Chicago’s ranks 31st and has been awfully generous without Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn along the front seven. With D’Andre Swift’s status up in the air, there were no Lions rushing props posted. However, I’d take the over on Jamaal Williams once it’s live. Finally, I’m riding the Fields wave as Chicago has done a great job of tailoring the offense to his dual-threat abilities.
New Orleans Saints (-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers, Total 40
- Pittsburgh +2
- Alvin Kamara under 75.5 rushing yards
- Odds: +251
I like the Steelers a lot as a home dog off of a bye in a non-conference game against a Saints team coming in off a short week. Andy Dalton is as unimaginative as it comes, and I don’t think he’ll take advantage of a Steelers secondary that ranks 21st in pass defense DVOA. The Saints are still banged up and likely won’t have Marshon Lattimore back. Off a bye, I’m banking on Kenny Pickett showing improvement with a full week to prep. I also suspect Pittsburgh will key on limiting Kamara on the ground and dare Dalton to beat them like Baltimore did.
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-3.5), Total 49.5
- Browns +3.5
- Amari Cooper over 60.5 receiving yards
- Odds: +245
I really like the Browns to cover and perhaps win outright. I think the narrative around Cleveland is overly negative, as Cleveland has lost four games by three points or less, with a couple of them coming in games they should’ve won. Meanwhile, Miami’s defense is in absolute shambles due to injuries. The Browns are coming off a bye and I trust Kevin Stefanski to develop a game plan that capitalizes on a Dolphins secondary that ranks 31st in DVOA. That’s where Cooper comes in, as he could be in store for a huge day.
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-2.5), Total 36.5
- Titans -2.5
- Derrick Henry over 82.5 rushing yards
- Derrick Henry anytime TD
- Odds: +539
I went back and forth on this game. Originally, I liked Denver coming off a bye. But I’m worried about Denver’s rushing defense, which ranks 25th in DVOA. The Titans can’t throw the ball, but that doesn’t matter against a Broncos defense that is tops in pass defense DVOA. Instead, I’ll bank on Henry to eat.
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