With six teams on bye, this week has the least football until the playoffs. Fortunately, that’s not nearly as big a problem for gamblers as it is for fantasy football players, because there are still plenty of good bets on the table. Below you will find our top bets of the week, as determined by expert voting, the past performance of each team, and in some cases, system plays. For more info on the methodology, check out last week’s article.

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Top Against the Spread Bets

Rank	Game	Bet	Expert Voting	Past Performance	System Plays	Bet Rating
1	SEA@SF	SEA +6	72%	53%		67
2	BAL@CIN	BAL -9.5	74%	49%		63
3	ARI@TB	ARI +5	70%	48%		62
4	DET@CHI	DET +2.5	67%	56%	53%	60

 

Seattle +6 at San Francisco

• Expert voting: 72%.
• Past performance ratings: 62% for SEA, 44% for facing SF, for a combined 53%.
• Bet Rating: 76. While this bet didn’t quite have the highest expert voting among ATS bets, the positive past performance rating helped push it over the line for the highest bet rating.

Baltimore -9.5 at Cincinnati

• Expert voting: 74%. This is the highest voting of any of our recommended ATS bets.
• Past performance ratings: 52% for BAL, 42% for facing CIN, for a combined 49%.
• Bet Rating: 63. With Andy Dalton benched, it seems the Bengals are circling the drain.

Arizona +5 at Tampa Bay

• Expert voting: 70%.
• Past performance ratings: 54% for ARI, 42% for facing TB, for a combined 48%.
• Bet Rating: 62.

Detroit +2.5 at Chicago

• Expert Voting: 67%.
• Past performance ratings: 52% for DET, 60% for facing CHI, for a combined 56%.
• System Play: Teams on an ATS losing streak of 3 or more games cover the spread in their next game 53.7% of the time. With a p-value of .11, this gives and expected future success rate of 53.3%. This is our only recommended ATS bet with a system in play.
• Bet Rating: 60.

Top Over-Under Bets

Rank	Game	Bet	Expert Voting	Past Performance	System Plays	Bet Rating
1	ATL@NO	Over 51	77%	51%		65
2	DET@CHI	Under 43	63%	56%	54%	63
3	BUF@CLE	Under 40.5	57%	64%		59

 

Atlanta at New Orleans Over 51

• Expert voting: 77%. This is our highest expert voting of any over-under bet this week.
• Past performance ratings: 52% for NO, 50% for ATL, for a combined 51%.
• Bet rating: 65.

Detroit at Chicago Under 43

• Expert voting: 63%.
• Past performance ratings: 63% for Chicago, 50% for Detroit, for a combined 56%.
• System play: Divisional games hit the under at a 54.6% rate. With a p-value of just .04, this gives an expected success rate of 54.4%. This is the only Over-Under bet with a system in play.

Buffalo at Cleveland Under 40.5

• Expert voting: 57%.
• Past performance ratings: 60% for CLE, 67% for BUF, for a stellar combined rating of 64%.
• Bet rating: 59.

Top Money Line Bets

Rank	Game	Bet	Expert Voting	Past Performance	Bet Rating
1	CAR@GB	GB -240	76%	70%	77
2	KC@TEN	KC -186	84%	62%	71
3	DET@CHI	DET + 125	85%	45%	67

 

Green Bay -240 vs Carolina

• Expert voting: 76%.
• Past performance ratings: 78% for GB, 62% for facing CAR, for a combined 70%.
• Bet rating: 77. This is our highest of the week for any bet type.

Kansas City -186 at Tennessee

• Expert voting: 84%.
• Past performance ratings: 58% for KC, 65% for facing TEN, for a combined 62%.
• Bet rating: 71. This one of only two ratings above 70 this week.

Detroit +125 at Chicago

• Expert Voting: 85%. This is our highest of the week for any bet type, which is remarkable for an underdog money line.
• Past performance ratings: 49% for DET, 41% for facing CHI, for a combined 45%.
• Bet Rating: 67. This is the best of any underdog money line.

Last Week’s Performance

We had a slow start last week, hitting on just one bet in each category.

• For money lines, we hit on CAR – 186 and missed on CLE -136, JAC +112, and DET + 116. That’s a combined loss of 2.46 units if betting 1 unit on each game.
• We were 1-2 against the spread. We hit on DAL -7 but missed on GB -3 and CLE -2.5.
• We were 1-3 for totals. We hit on CAR-TEN over 41 but missed on DEN-CLE under 40.5, IND-PIT under 43.5, and SEA-TB under 53.

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Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.