NFL Week 11 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Justin Fields
Odds: +800 via BetMGM
These teams love to run the football, and neither is near the top of the league in run defense, so both teams have a decent chance to score first. Chicago is much better at defending the pass, however. Justin Fields has run for 325 yards in the past two games, a record for most rushing yards by a quarterback in a two-game span. Atlanta has a rotation of players that all receive rushing attempts. Last week, four running backs had four or more rushing attempts, and Marcus Mariota had three. Justin Fields is the best play due to the lack of confidence in anyone on Atlanta’s team.
Baltimore Ravens @ Carolina Panthers
Gus Edwards
Odds: +800 via BetMGM
Gus Edwards has been dealing with a hamstring injury, which kept him out of their week nine game. He has had a bye week, plus that week, to heal up, and John Harbaugh said he expects him to be out there this week. When Edwards is on the field, he receives the lion’s share of the touches in this backfield. In week seven, he had 16 rushing attempts, and in week eight, he had 11 carries. If Edwards does not suit up, Kenyan Drake is the player to fill the void. In Edwards’ absence in week nine, Drake had 24 rushing attempts. Carolina ranks twenty-sixth in rushing yards allowed per game and has allowed 12 TDs via the ground this season.
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen
Odds: +800 via BetMGM
This game has been moved to Ford Field in Detroit due to a snowstorm that could drop multiple feet of snow over Buffalo. The fans’ safety is at the forefront of the decision to move the game. The weather is forecasted cold and windy in Detroit, so it would not be surprising if Josh Allen uses his legs more often. He is averaging 52.9 rushing yards per game and is Buffalo’s leading rusher. Cleveland’s defense is mediocre against the run and the pass and has allowed 26.4 points per game. Josh Allen is a great play this week in the cold weather.
Washington Commanders @ Houston Texans
Brian Robinson Jr.
Odds: +600 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Texans have been putrid against the run this season. They allow 181.8 rushing yards per game and 13 rushing TDs this season. Robinson is coming off a 26-carry game against the Eagles, who were dealing with injuries on their defensive line. The Commanders have shown that they are willing to alter their game plan to the weaknesses of their opponents. Robinson is likely in for another 20+ carry game, which gives him a great chance of finding the end zone first. Taking the opposing running back to score first against Houston is almost an automatic bet weekly, so do not overthink it.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor
Odds: +750 via BetMGM
The Eagles have been troubled by the run all season which is likely their biggest weakness. After losing multiple players along their front to injury, they recently signed NFL veterans Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh. It is unclear if they will play this week, but they should help stop the run when they do. The Colts played their first game under Jeff Saturday, and Taylor carried the rock 22 times for 147 yards. His ankle appeared healthy on his 66-yard TD run, and Saturday seems intent on using him as a workhorse back. At this price, he is a great value bet.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Garrett Wilson
Odds: +1300 via BetRivers Sportsbook
These teams met in week eight, and Tyler Conklin scored the first TD. Rhamondre Stevenson saw 16 rushing attempts and caught seven passes from Mac Jones. For the Jets, Garrett Wilson and Tyler Conklin received the most opportunities. Conklin will likely receive more attention from the Patriots’ defense, while Wilson will have a similar matchup. Both teams had a bye week and extra time to rest and prepare for this game. Stevenson may have the best chance of scoring first, but Garrett Wilson also has a decent shot and a much better price.
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara
Odds: +900 via BetMGM
Matthew Stafford has logged full practices this week after exiting concussion protocol and is expected to play. He will be without his primary target, Cooper Kupp, who got put on injured reserve before his ankle surgery. The Rams are last in the league in total yards per game, and rushing yards per game, which is a complete turnaround from last season. They have a tough matchup this week against the Saints, who allow 195.9 passing yards per game, but are weak against the run. All that to say, the Saints are the team to target in this game. Alvin Kamara, at this price, is a steal, regardless of his recent games. The team has not produced many successful drives, so his opportunities got stifled by poor play.
Detroit Lions @ New York Giants
Saquon Barkley
Odds: +600 via BetMGM
The Lions rank thirty-first in rushing yards allowed per game (160.9 yards) and have allowed the most points this season. The Giants rank third in rushing yards per game, so this matchup is perfect for Saquon Barkley. He had 35 carries for 152 yards and a TD last week against the Texans, the last-ranked team in rushing yards allowed. The Giants’ defense has not been superior this season, so this could come down to who gets the ball first. Saquon has lower odds than Jamaal Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown on BetMGM, so take advantage of the value offered.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Courtland Sutton
Odds: +650 via Caesars Sportsbook
The Broncos unquestionably have the better defense in this matchup, so Denver is the team to target. Jerry Jeudy hurt his ankle last week and has not logged a practice this week. Sutton received 11 targets after Jeudy left early in the game. He has seemingly fallen out of favor or prioritized by defenses in recent weeks, but now is the clear favorite wideout of Russell Wilson. He caught the first TD against the Raiders in week four and has a great chance again. Also, other sportsbooks have not released any odds for this market, and Caesars Sportsbook generally has the lowest odds among them. Be sure to compare prices here before placing a bet.
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings
Dalton Schultz
Odds: +1800 via FanDuel Sportsbook
Dallas has been solid against the pass this season and has not surrendered many points. That is perfect for this Vikings’ offense that loves to throw the ball. Kirk Cousins is ranked sixth in the league in total pass attempts, and Justin Jefferson has surpassed 1,000 yards already. Both will have a tougher matchup this week, so the Cowboys’ pass attack is the target in this game. Dalton Schultz received eight targets last week, which was second on the team behind CeeDee Lamb. Since Dak Prescott’s return, Schultz has had at least five catches. Prescott is very fond of his tight end, and at this price, in this matchup, he is a great value bet.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Tyler Boyd
Odds: +850 via DraftKings Sportsbook
The Bengals had their bye week last week, while the Steelers beat the Saints 20 to 10. These teams also met in week one, so a lot has changed since then. Ja’Marr Chase is still out with a hip injury, so Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are the wideouts for Cincinnati. Boyd has been solid since Chase’s injury but has not had a great matchup. The Steelers have allowed 263.9 passing yards per game this season and have given up 18 passing TDs this season. Boyd is excellent at getting behind defensive backs and scoring on deep passes. The Bengals have had an extra week to game plan for this defense, and they definitely have found holes to exploit in this secondary.
View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.