NFL Week 11 Line Movement Analysis (2025)
The 2025 NFL season rolls on with a full Week 11 slate. After the Jets and Patriots kicked things off on Thursday, it's time to get ready for the rest of the week's NFL action. Tracking how much betting lines move during an NFL week can provide useful information to bettors. As sportsbooks collect more information and public or sharp money flows in, lines take more shape.
Each game will have its reasoning for movement (e.g., injuries, betting activity, weather, etc.) and varying degrees of impact on the line. Let's take a look at how the spreads and totals have moved for every remaining NFL game this week.
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NFL Week 11 Line Movement Analysis
The table below summarizes the home team spread and game total movement for this week’s NFL games. Below, we’ll break down some of the more significant line movements.
| Home Spread | Total | ||||||
| Away | Home | Open | Current | Diff | Open | Current | Diff |
| WSH | MIA | -2 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 46.5 | 47.5 | 1 |
| LAC | JAC | 2.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 45.5 | 43.5 | -2 |
| GB | NYG | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 | 44.5 | 42.5 | -2 |
| TB | BUF | -6 | -5.5 | 0.5 | 50 | 47.5 | -2.5 |
| CHI | MIN | -2.5 | -3 | -0.5 | 45.5 | 48.5 | 3 |
| HOU | TEN | 8.5 | 6 | -2.5 | 38.5 | 37.5 | -1 |
| CIN | PIT | -5.5 | -5.5 | - | 49.5 | 49.5 | - |
| CAR | ATL | -4 | -3.5 | 0.5 | 42.5 | 42.5 | - |
| SEA | LAR | -2.5 | -3 | -0.5 | 48.5 | 48.5 | - |
| SF | ARI | 2.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 47.5 | 48.5 | 1 |
| BAL | CLE | 8.5 | 7.5 | -1 | 41.5 | 38.5 | -3 |
| KC | DEN | 3.5 | 3.5 | - | 44 | 44.5 | 0.5 |
| DET | PHI | -1.5 | -2.5 | -1 | 48.5 | 46.5 | -2 |
| DAL | LV | 3.5 | 3.5 | - | 49.5 | 50.5 | 1 |
(Lines per DraftKings Sportsbook | Line movement via EV Analytics | Opening odds from 11/9 | Current odds as of Thursday evening)
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
- Spread Movement: HOU -8.5 to HOU -6
There's only one game this weekend that's seen significant spread movement. It's this AFC South matchup between Houston and Tennessee. The Texans opened as 8.5-point road favorites for the divisional clash, but the line is now down to -6 at the time of this writing. The spread could also move even more towards the Titans before Sunday's kickoff.
There are a few reasons to explain this shift towards Tennessee. The Texans will again be without C.J. Stroud this week, leaving Davis Mills as the starter for the second straight game. Plus, Houston could be primed for a letdown after pulling off a monumental home comeback win last week, scoring 26 unanswered fourth-quarter points to beat Jacksonville. The seven-point win margin is also misleading, since the Texans scored on a fumble return touchdown on the final play.
As for the Titans, they're coming off a bye week and should be plenty motivated for this rivalry matchup. It's worth noting that Houston dominated Tennessee in a 26-0 shutout win earlier this season. Plus, the Titans are now 1-8 on the year with every loss coming by seven or more points. They also have a league-worst -127 point differential this year.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
- Total Movement: 45.5 to 48.5
The Bears and Vikings meet up for the second time this season. We saw this matchup back in Week 1, as Minnesota took the 27-24 road victory. Maybe those 51 combined points have something to do with the total rising in this weekend's rematch?
The Bears' tendencies on both sides of the ball usually lead to higher-scoring games. Their offense is averaging 379.8 total yards per game (third in the NFL) and scoring 26.6 points per game (PPG), the seventh-most in the league. Meanwhile, Chicago’s defense is giving up 27.4 PPG this season (fifth-most) and 375.7 total yards per contest (sixth-most).
That soft Bears defense will be a welcome matchup for J.J. McCarthy at home. The second-year quarterback threw two interceptions against Baltimore last week, but the offense still out-gained the Ravens (365 to 321). McCarthy should have a much easier time versus Chicago here. Meanwhile, Minnesota's defense has been exposed a bit lately after starting the season well. The Vikings are allowing 29 PPG over the past four games.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
- Total Movement: 41.5 to 38.5
Low-scoring games are nothing new in the AFC North. It looks like another could be brewing in Cleveland this weekend as the Browns host the Ravens. The game total opened at 41.5 points and has since dropped to 38.5, as of this writing.
Baltimore's defense has gotten notably healthier over the past month after previously missing multiple key contributors. That's been evident in opposing point totals. The Ravens are allowing just 14.5 PPG over the past four games, with fewer than 20 points allowed in each. It could be a long day for Dillon Gabriel and the Browns' offense, which averages only 16.2 PPG this season.
Meanwhile, Cleveland’s defense can also limit Lamar Jackson and Co. on the other side of the matchup. The Browns rank second in the NFL in total yards allowed per game. They boast the second-best pass defense and rank in the top 10 against the run as well. Plus, the latest Cleveland weather forecast may also factor into the total dropping. It's expected to be about 40 degrees with 20-30 miles per hour (MPH) winds at kickoff.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills
- Total Movement: 50 to 47.5
Tampa Bay and Buffalo both suffered tough losses last week. The Bills took an embarrassing 17-point road loss at Miami, while the Buccaneers lost by one score at home to New England. Both squads will be looking to get back in the win column, which should have the defenses dialed in.
Buffalo boasts the third-ranked pass defense in the NFL, which will make it tough on Baker Mayfield and the Bucs' pass attack. The Tampa offense could also be without Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin once again, as both are questionable. Speaking of injuries, the Bills are likely down stud tight end Dalton Kincaid. He's been a big part of the offense lately, and Buffalo could opt for a run-heavy approach this week.
With all of this in mind, the game total has notably dropped during the week. It opened at 50.5 and sits at 47.5 as of late Thursday night. The decrease could also be a result of the concerning weather forecast for Buffalo on Sunday. At game time, temperatures will be in the 30s with 20-25 MPH winds and a slight chance of snow and/or freezing rain. That would obviously impact passing and kicking for both squads.