NFL Week 11 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets (2024)
What a week for underdogs! Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season saw five of 11 games on Sunday (not including Sunday Night Football) won outright and eight against the spread. For the season, underdogs have won outright 48 times (71 ATS), 17 (23) while at home and 31 (48) on the road. Who will do it this week?
After deep diving into this week’s Sunday slate, here are my favorite underdog picks for Sunday.
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NFL Week 11: Underdogs
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Baltimore Ravens (-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+150)
Since inserting Russell Wilson into the lineup, the Steelers offense has come alive-especially the passing game. Baltimore has the worst pass defense in the league and gives up more plays of 20+ yards than any other team in the NFL (47). So, it would not be shocking to see Wilson have a solid day against the Ravens defense.
However, the Ravens offense has had the most plays of 20+ yards this season, which means we could be in for another high-scoring game (i.e., both Ravens-Bengals games). However, the Steelers defense is not as easy to throw on (215.6 ypg allowed; 25 plays of 20+ yards).
That is no problem; it just calls for a heavy dose of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson in the run game. But the Steelers have the fourth-best run defense in the league (87.1 ypg allowed).
So, yes, the Ravens have been a juggernaut on offense this season, seemingly impossible to slow down, let alone stop. But the Steelers defense appears to be good enough on paper to do just that. If it can, and if Russell Wilson can get the passing game on track, we could see another Baltimore loss.
Pick: If the Steelers are going to put up a fight like expected, they’ll win by more than a field goal. Pittsburgh is 8-4 in games where they were home underdogs since 2020. This game will make it nine.
Take the Steelers Moneyline.
Atlanta Falcons (+115) vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5)
I am actually a little surprised that the spread isn’t bigger. If Bo Nix can complete 62% of his passes or better, the Denver offense plays well enough to win. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 70.4% of passes against the Falcons defense (the highest in the NFL).
The Broncos don’t have much of a run game, but they rely more on their defense than offense to win games.
Now, the Falcons’ offense can be a little unreliable, but Atlanta has not lost back-to-back games this season. Kirk Cousins usually follows up losses with better games than he had the week before, which will not be too hard here since he failed to throw a touchdown pass last week. Atlanta’s defense is nothing special, although it did contain Alvin Kamara and held the Saints to under 100 yards rushing last week.
But it will not need to be special against Denver’s capable but mediocre offense.
Pick: The outcome of this game depends entirely on Kirk Cousins. If he can complete some passes and get the Falcons offense moving, they should be able to win this game. So, if you believe in Cousins, take the Falcons’ Moneyline.
Kansas City Chiefs (+110) vs. Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
Kansas City has become a challenging team to predict. You know what Patrick Mahomes and the offense are capable of, but they seem to do just enough to win every week. They look good but are not great in the process. With a defense playing as well as their defense is, they can get away with it against most teams.
But not the Bills, which is probably why Buffalo is the favorite in this game. The Chiefs have Buffalo’s number in the postseason (3-0), but the regular season belongs to the Bills (3-1). So, why will this week’s regular-season game be any different?
It might not be. This game could be the one where the undefeated streak finally ends. However, Mahomes has proven time and time again that you should never count him out. Yes, the Chiefs won last week, thanks to a blocked field goal attempt. But they were in the lead at that point because Mahomes got the Chiefs in position to score points in the second half.
Our Pick: Chiefs Moneyline; This is a rare chance to get Kansas City at plus-money odds, and I won’t pass it up.