NFL Week 11 Pick’em Pool Predictions (2025)
If you picked the Dolphins to beat the Bills, pat yourself on the back. Not only did the Dolphins win, they dominated from start to finish against a team that has had their number for years. Other surprising results included the Saints traveling to Carolina to defeat the Panthers and the Texans defeating the Jaguars without C.J. Stroud. In keeping with the theme of big upsets, I have included one in my four picks below.
Below are my top NFL Week 11 pick’em pool predictions.
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NFL Week 11 Pick’em Pool Predictions (2025)
Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins
After the Dolphins’ shocking win over the Bills, I simply don't see how they lose this game. The Commanders have lost five consecutive games, including four in a row by at least 21 points. Whether Jayden Daniels is on the field or not, the offense hasn't looked as good as last year, and we already know that Marcus Mariota is getting the start on Sunday.
Additionally, the Commanders have the second-worst pass defense in football, and they're allowing a league-worst 13 yards per completion. And for as bad as the pass defense is, the rush defense isn't much better, allowing 134.4 yards per game.
De'Von Achane is going to run all over the Commanders after his 174-yard game against the Bills, while Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle and the rest of the Dolphins' passing attack will have no issue against a weak secondary. And though the Dolphins rank 24th in total defense, the Commanders haven't gained more than 290 yards in three consecutive games.
Pick: Miami Dolphins
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Bears have won six of their last seven games, but I'm still far from impressed with this team. They were trailing by 10 points when Jaxson Dart got injured, and they needed a miracle to beat the Cincinnati Bengals. Only two of their six wins have been by more than five points, and their strength of victory is just .272, second-worst in the league.
Meanwhile, the Vikings are just 4-5, but they've played well in back-to-back weeks. They defeated the Lions in Detroit, and the defense played excellently against the Ravens last week, allowing just 321 yards and keeping the game within reach, despite three offensive turnovers.
The Vikings' defense has looked great since the return of Andrew Van Ginkel. And while Caleb Williams has put up solid numbers in his last few games, I think the defenses he was up against have more to do with his success than anything else. In a battle of OK offenses, I'll take the better defense to get the job done at home.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants
This is a risky play, but after what I've seen from the Packers' offense in back-to-back weeks, I'm very concerned about them letting the Giants hang around too long in this game. Jaxson Dart is dealing with a concussion, so there is a chance that Russell Wilson starts this game. While I'd be much more comfortable picking this upset with Dart under center, the Packers have simply let too many inferior opponents stay close this season.
Since defeating the Lions and Commanders in the first two weeks, the Packers are just 3-3-1, with their wins coming over the Bengals, Cardinals and Steelers. Jordan Love looked great against Pittsburgh, throwing for 360 yards and three touchdowns, but the Steelers also have the worst pass defense in football.
The Giants rank 23rd against the pass and 31st against the run, so this may be a game that Josh Jacobs dominates. Even though the Giants are 2-8 and just fired their head coach, they've been competitive and should have beaten both the Broncos and Bears. We've seen the Packers allow worse teams than the Giants to remain competitive, so I'm taking the Giants to win a very low-scoring game.
Pick: New York Giants
Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Is the Eagles' defense as good as what they put on the field on Monday night, or are the Packers just struggling more than expected? While holding any NFL offense to just seven points is impressive, the Eagles have allowed at least 20 points in seven of their eight other contests this season.
For the Lions, Week 10 looked a lot more like what we expect from this team, after they inexplicably lost to the Vikings in Week 9. Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties, and the Lions put up 44 points. Of course, that performance came against a really bad Commanders defense, but the Lions are still averaging 31.4 points per game, second-most in the league.
Ultimately, this game is going to come down to the rushing attacks. The Lions rank sixth in rushing yards per game, while the Eagles rank 21st. Defensively, the Lions rank eighth, while the Eagles rank 19th. Look for the Lions to control the clock and pick up a hard-fought road victory.
Pick: Detroit Lions
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.