NFL Week 11 Picks: Sleepers & Longshot Bets (2024)
The Detroit Lions and their top-ranked scoring offense get a juicy matchup against the weak defense of the 2-8 Jacksonville Jaguars. How many points can they score? On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Cincinnati Bengals get a horrible matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. Can Joe Burrow and the offense overcome the best-scoring defense in the league? And how will George Pickens fare when his Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Baltimore Ravens?
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Here are the best longshot bets of Week 11 of the NFL season.
Detroit Lions Over 40.5 Points (+410)
It's the sign of a great team when you can throw five interceptions in a single game and yet still score 26 points and win on the road. The Lions did just that last week against the Houston Texans, and now they get to take on one of the worst defenses in football.
Despite only allowing 12 points last week, the Jaguars are still allowing 26.4 points per game this season. Last week, the Minnesota Vikings went 0-of-5 against them in the red zone, which is the only reason that the Vikings didn't put up more than 30 points. It's very unlikely lightning strikes twice for the Jaguars, as the Lions have the fifth-best red zone offense in football, scoring touchdowns on nearly 64% of their red zone trips.
The Lions have already scored 40 points three times this season. With Mac Jones quarterbacking the Jaguars, the Lions, who already have intercepted the second-most passes this season, will rack up picks this week, setting up the offense with plenty of short fields.
Cincinnati Bengals Under 14.5 Points (+440)
The Bengals are averaging 27.0 points per game, the sixth-best mark in the NFL. They've scored at least 34 points in back-to-back weeks, and yet, I don't have high hopes for them this week.
Right now, sportsbooks have their team total listed at 21.5 points. The Chargers have yet to allow a team to score more than 20 against them this season. And while the Bengals' offense has looked great of late, they've scored 17 or fewer points in three games this season. They're not matchup-proof by any means, and this is the worst matchup in the league.
The Chargers are allowing just 13.1 points per game, the best mark in the league by over a field goal. Their incredible defensive performance has come against everyone. Against a team that has played up-and-down to their competition, look for the Chargers to impose their will and hold the Bengals to two touchdowns or fewer.
George Pickens 120+ Receiving Yards (+500)
Pickens gets to take on the Ravens' worst-ranked pass defense, in a game that is likely to feature a lot of points. The Ravens are allowing a whopping 294.9 passing yards per game, which is great for Pickens who has clearly emerged as Russell Wilson's favorite target.
Pickens has at least 74 receiving yards in three consecutive games, and he has been targeted 21 times during that stretch. To start that run, Pickens went for 111 yards against the New York Jets, the team with the second-best pass defense in football.
Though Pickens has yet to clear 120 yards this season, he does have two 100-yard games, with his season-high at 113. I expect the connection between him and Wilson to continue to be successful this week in a fantastic matchup.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.