NFL Week 11 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2022)
“The best revenge is to live on and prove yourself.†— Eddie Vedder
Hey, the Pearl Jam singer knows what he’s talking about. After a dismal 3-6 showing in Week 9, we got our revenge in Week 10, living on and proving ourselves with a 5-2 performance.
Before we get to this week’s plays, here’s a recap of how last week’s wagers fared.
The wins: Russell Wilson over passing 225.5 yards, Saquon Barkley over 92.5 rushing yards, Josh Jacobs under 87.5 rushing yards, Amon-Ra St. Brown over 69.5 receiving yards, Darnell Mooney over 41.5 receiving yards.
The losses: Tua Tagovailoa under 270.5 passing yards, Courtland Sutton under 54.5 receiving yards.
Here are my favorite selections for Week 11 …
Last week: 5-2
Season record: 40-29
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday night.
NFL Week 11 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions
Matt Ryan UNDER 228.5 passing yards
Reclaiming his starting role after a two-game benching, Ryan threw for 222 yards last week against a porous Raiders pass defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA. The Colts took a conservative offensive approach in that contest under interim head coach Jeff Saturday, running the ball on 51.7% of their offensive snaps. The guess here is that the Colts use RB Jonathan Taylor heavily again this week, taking advantage of a slumping Eagles run defense and limiting Ryan’s exposure to a fierce Philly pass defense that is allowing 200.1 passing yards per game (third-fewest) and is tied for fourth in the league with 29 sacks. The Eagles are allowing just 5.0 yards per pass attempt.
Mac Jones UNDER 203.5 passing yards
The Jets’ pass defense has become a fearsome beast. When we last saw Gang Green before their Week 10 bye, they were holding Josh Allen to 205 passing yards in a 20-17 upset of the Bills. In a Week 8 meeting between the Patriots and Jets, Jones completed 24 of 35 passes for 194 yards. The Jets are allowing 5.8 yards per pass attempt and have the league’s second-lowest opponent passer rating (74.3). Jones is averaging 190 passing yards in his six 2022 starts. It seems unlikely he’ll improve on that number against one of the league’s top pass defenses.
Lamar Jackson OVER 61.5 rushing yards
Bye weeks put a pep in Lamar Jackson’s step. In four career week-after-the-bye games, Jackson has run 79 times for 365 yards and two touchdowns. His rushing totals in those games: 119, 61, 65 and 120 yards. Jackson has cleared this number in 5-of-9 games this season and is averaging 70.6 rushing yards per game. Look for him to run wild this weekend in a home game against the lowly Panthers.
Antonio Gibson OVER 46.5 rushing yards
One of my favorite strategies for betting player props is to find a weak defense and pick on it repeatedly. The Houston Texans simply can’t stop the run. Houston had the worst run defense in the league in 2021, and it’s gotten no better in 2022. The Texans are giving up 156.2 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry to running backs. Gibson shares work with rookie Brian Robinson, but Gibby has played 52.4% of Washington’s offensive snaps over the last two weeks and has had two consecutive games with double-digit carries. Give the explosive Gibson double-digit carries against Houston’s shoddy run defense, and I like his chances to beat this number.
David Montgomery OVER 61.5 rushing yards
With Khalil Herbert going on injured reserve earlier this week, Montgomery has the Bears’ backfield to himself, save for some occasional relief from sixth-round rookie Trestan Ebner. Even with Herbert around, Montgomery has had a snap share of 66% or higher in 7-of-9 games. With Herbert out, Monty could see snap shares closer to 80% or 85%. Look for him to get at least 15 carries and beat this number against a Falcons run defense that’s giving up 99.8 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs.
Michael Pittman UNDER 60.5 receiving yards
With Matt Ryan back at QB for the Colts last week, Pittman had nine targets vs. a bad Raiders pass defense but finished with only 53 yards on seven receptions. Ryan’s modus operandi is to throw to the open guy no matter who it is, and Parris Campbell has been coming on lately, getting open on a consistent basis. I don’t know if we can count on Pittman getting eight or more targets every game, and he has a brutal Week 11 matchup against the Eagles’ outside cornerback duo of Darius Slay and James Bradberry, who might be breathing fire after playing a poor Week 10 game against Terry McLaurin and the Commanders.
Brandin Cooks UNDER 54.5 receiving yards
This is my favorite player prop of the week. Cooks has cleared this number in only two of his last seven games. He hasn’t had more than four catches in a game since Oct. 2. Cooks reportedly has been disgruntled ever since the Texans failed to deal him before the trading deadline, and he’s been dealing with hip and wrist injuries. He’ll be be facing an underrated Washington defense that held Eagles WR A.J. Brown to one catch for seven yards in Week 10.
Greg Dulcich OVER 37.5 receiving yards
The Broncos’ rookie tight end has cleared this number in three of the four games he’s played this season. Dulcich only had one catch for 11 yards last week, but he played 89% of the Broncos’ offensive snaps in that game and ran routes on 40 of Russell Wilson’s 42 dropbacks. Those numbers show just how heavily involved in the Denver offense Dulcich has become. It seems likely that Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy will miss Week 11 with an ankle injury, and that could funnel some additional targets Dulcich’s way.
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