NFL Week 11 Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
Each week, I’ll be providing my favorite Sunday parlay, along with my favorite same-game parlay options for each game. Without further ado, here are this week’s parlay picks.
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Week 11 NFL Parlay
- Dallas Cowboys moneyline
- Jets-Patriots under 38.5
- Indianapolis Colts +7
Odds: +554
The Cowboys are my favorite play of the weekend, as I love the situation for them entering this huge NFC battle. Dallas is coming off a disgruntling loss to the Green Bay Packers, while Minnesota is coming home after an emotional, roller coaster, and maybe miraculous win over the Buffalo Bills on the road. After consecutive come-from-behind victories on the road, will Minnesota be able to bring the energy against a Cowboys team that’s sure to be motivated? I’ll break down this matchup further down in the piece.
The Jets and Patriots will reunite for their second matchup in three weeks. Bill Belichick had the bye week to find new ways to make life miserable for Zach Wilson. And the New York defense is clearly legitimate and should create similar nightmares for Mac Jones. Throw in wind speeds between 20-and-40 MPH, and you’ve got an ideal recipe for an under.
Finally, we’re taking a shot on the Jeff Saturday-led Colts after they righted the ship last weekend. Granted, that came against the disastrous Raiders. And Matt Ryan won’t be sneaking up on the Eagles like he did last week. But if Philadelphia has a flaw, it’s against the run, where it ranks 28th in DVOA. Expect Saturday and the Colts to exploit that as Washington did last Monday.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at Indianapolis Colts | Total 44.5
- Colts +7
- Jonathan Taylor over rushing attempts
- Miles Sanders under rushing yards
Odds: +330
I expect Indianapolis to shorten the game by keeping it on the ground early and often. Another 20+ rushes for Taylor should definitely be in the cards. As for Sanders, he could struggle to find room to run against a Colts defense that ranks 5th in rushing DVOA.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3) | Total 38.5
- Under 38.5
- Zach Wilson to throw an interception
- James Robinson over rushing yards
As I mentioned above, this crucial AFC East game should be a slugfest. Belichick brought out the very worst of Wilson in the meeting two weeks ago, as he tossed a trio of interceptions and was why the Jets lost at home to New England. Coming off the bye, I expect Belichick to force at least one pick with a defense that ranks third in adjusted sack rate. However, New England ranks just 21st in run defense DVOA and 22nd in adjusted line yards defensively. With an extra week to rest and learn the playbook, I expect the Jets to deploy Robinson as the between-the-tackles back.
Washington Commanders (-3) at Houston Texans | Total 41
- Texans +3
- Antonio Gibson over 46.5 rushing yards
Odds: +267
This is gross. I hate the Texans. But this is the spot to hold your nose and back them. Washington is coming off a resounding upset win over the previously undefeated Eagles and now has to prepare for the bottom-feeder Texans on a short week. Taylor Heinicke is a total wildcard, which makes him a better underdog than a favorite. The Commanders are also 2-5-1 with a rest disadvantage under Ron Rivera. Backing Davis Mills makes me ill, but he could succeed against a Commanders secondary that ranks 20th in DVOA.
But even though I like the Texans, I fully admit they cannot stop the run. I’m choosing Gibson over Brian Robinson because he’s the more explosive back, and Gibson has played at least 48% of the snaps in the last two games with J.D. McKissic sidelined.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3) | Total 49.5
- Bears +3
- Cordarrelle Patterson over 56.5 rushing yards
Odds: +261
It’s hard not to roll with Chicago after the offense has apparently found its footing. These defenses rank 29th and 30th, respectively, in DVOA. But with both teams featuring higher rush rates, the over isn’t as blatantly obvious of a play as the analytics suggest. However, I do think Patterson and David Montgomery could be poised for big days against two porous run defenses. Montgomery’s props weren’t available after he missed practice Wednesday for personal reasons.
Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-3) | Total 45
- Saquon Barkley over 96.5 rushing yards
- Jamaal Williams anytime TD
Odds: +304
This isn’t a game I love from a side or total perspective, although I lean toward Detroit on the spread. However, I expect a massive day from Saquon Barkley against a porous Lions’ defense against the run. Williams has been the red zone back for Detroit, given D’Andre Swift’s bizarre usage, and I expect him to get in the end zone once more against the Giants.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3) | Total 39
- Under 39
- Matthew Stafford to throw an INT
- Andy Dalton to throw an INT
- Odds: +419
Odds: +419
What do you do with a disgusting game like this? Fade everything! The Rams’ offense was already in shambles before Cooper Kupp suffered an injury. And the Dalton-led Saints have been just as awful. These two defenses are down from past years but still rank in the league’s top half. Stafford and Dalton are both highly susceptible to bad decisions, so why not take a flyer on both of them to make a mistake?
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-13), Total 41.5
- Panthers team total under 14.5 points
- Baker Mayfield to throw an INT
- Mark Andrews anytime TD
Odds: +378
This is another gross contest featuring the biggest favorite of the week. However, given the uncertainty surrounding their backfield and receiving corps, I can’t get behind many Ravens props. Instead, I’ll fade the Panthers, who will get the miserable Baker Mayfield back under center. Mayfield is a turnover machine, and if Baltimore jumps out to an early lead, the Panthers will be forced to abandon the ground game. That’s why I’m avoiding D’Onta Foreman props entirely. However, I’m sure Lamar Jackson will try to get his favorite target Andrews a TD in his first game back from injury.
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings | Total 47.5
- Cowboys -1.5
- CeeDee Lamb over 77.5 receiving yards
Odds: +261
Minnesota’s run of one-score victories is coming to a close here. And the books listing Dallas as the early favorite tells you everything you need to know about how these two teams should be viewed. The Cowboys rank 4th in DVOA, while Minnesota still ranks 17th despite an 8-1 record. That’s not to say the Vikings are a bad team, but they probably aren’t that great. I expect Dak Prescott to exploit a pass defense that ranks just 15th in DVOA, with CeeDee Lamb being the primary beneficiary. Mike McCarthy could, of course, gag this away like he’s known to do, but I’ll roll with Dallas to end Minnesota’s run.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5) | Total 41.5
- Raiders +2.5
- Josh Jacobs over 78.5 rushing yards
Odds: +265
Well, I don’t know what to do with this game. The Raiders can’t do anything right. The Broncos can’t score. So I guess I’ll take the underdog? On a serious note, Las Vegas’ best chance is on the ground against a Denver defense that’s elite against the pass but just 20th in run defense DVOA. That sets up for a potentially nice day for Jacobs.
Cincinnati Bengals (-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers | Total 41
- Steelers +4
- Joe Mixon under 66.5 rushing yards
- Najee Harris under 47.5 rushing yards
Odds: +542
This handicap is relatively simple for me. Cincinnati’s offensive line is still horrific, while Pittsburgh’s defensive line now has T.J. Watt back. We saw Cincinnati struggle against the Steelers in Week 1, losing outright. With no Ja’Marr Chase, I could see the Steelers winning outright again.
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