NFL Week 11: Top Against the Spread, Over/Under, and Moneyline Bets
Football seems to really be hitting its stride. Patrick Mahomes is back. Monday Night Football was actually entertaining. There’s no need to stress about fantasy anymore because we’re already eliminated from the playoffs in every league. Most importantly of all, some picks went our way last week – check after this week’s top bets for last week’s results. For info on our bet rating methodology, check out the Week 9 article.
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Top Against the Spread Bets
| Rank | Game | Bet | Expert Voting | Past Performance | Bet Rating |
| 1 | DAL@DET | DAL -3.5 | 89% | 53% | 73 |
| 2 | ARI@SF | ARI +13.5 | 83% | 49% | 70 |
| 3 | KC@LAC | KC -3.5 | 84% | 52% | 67 |
| 4 | NE@PHI | NE -3 | 71% | 52% | 66 |
Dallas -3.5 at Detroit
- Expert voting: 89%. The theme of this week’s top ATS bets is Vegas having way more respect for home-field advantage than our experts. The Cowboys are a much better team than the Lions, and a huge majority of our experts think it’s by enough that 3.5 is not nearly enough points, even in Detroit.
- Past performance ratings: 56% for Dallas and 50% for facing Detroit, for a combined 53%.
- Bet rating: 73. This is the third week of this project, and the first time we’ve had ATS bets with bet ratings of 70 or higher.
Arizona +13.5 at San Francisco
- Expert voting: 83%. The Cardinals were within a field goal of the 49ers just two weeks ago. Even if you give them another three points for losing the home-field advantage, that hypothetical line of +6 is nowhere near the actual spread of +13.5.
- Past performance ratings: 56% for Arizona, 42% for facing San Francisco, for a combined 49%.
- Bet rating: 70. This is our second ATS bet with a 70+ rating this week, and our second this year.
Kansas City -3.5 at LA Chargers
- Expert voting: 84%.
- Past performance ratings: 50% for Kansas City, 54% for facing the Chargers, for a combined 52%.
- Bet rating: 67.
New England -3 at Philadelphia
- Expert voting: 71%.
- Past performance ratings: 60% for New England, 44% for facing Philly, for a combined 52%.
Top Over-Under Bets
| Rank | Game | Bet | Expert Voting | Past Performance | System Plays | Bet Rating |
| 1 | PIT@CLE | Under 40.5 | 67% | 62% | 54% | 64 |
| 2 | ATL@CAR | Over 51 | 68% | 52% | 62 | |
| 3 | DEN@MIN | Over 38.5 | 86% | 31% | 62 |
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: Under 40.5
- Expert voting: 67%. With Cleveland falling short of every expectation this year and Pittsburgh stuck with their backup QB, it might not be a surprise that two-thirds of our experts like the under here.
- Past performance ratings: 62% for both Cleveland and Pittsburgh.
- System play: Divisional games hit the under at a 54.5% rate, with a p-value of just .04.
- Bet rating: 64.
Atlanta at Carolina: Over 51
- Expert voting: 68%.
- Past performance ratings: 56% for Carolina, 48% for Atlanta, for a combined 52%.
- Bet rating: 62
Denver at Minnesota: Over 38.5
- Expert voting: 86%. This is an incredible agreement for an over-under bet.
- Past performance ratings: 38% for Minnesota, 24% for Denver, for a combined rating of just 31%.
- Bet rating: 62. This is an interesting case – the expert voting is stellar, but the past performance rating is abysmal, which balances out for a decent bet rating. It seems our experts think this line breaks the recent trend of over-unders being too high for these teams.
Top Money Line Bets
| Rank | Game | Bet | Expert Voting | Past Performance | Bet Rating |
| 1 | DAL@DET | DAL -196 | 94% | 60% | 79 |
| 2 | KC@LAC | KC -195 | 89% | 62% | 75 |
| 3 | NYJ@WAS | NYJ +104 | 65% | 51% | 64 |
Dallas -196 at Detroit
- Expert voting: 94%. With Dallas as our top ATS bet with a line of just -3.5, it makes sense that a line better than -200 would also be one of our best money line bets.
- Past performance ratings: 64% for Dallas, 56% for facing Detroit, for a combined 60%.
- Bet rating: 79.
Kansas City -195 at LA Chargers
- Expert voting: 89%. Once again, a top ATS bet on a team favored by fewer than four points translates to a top moneyline bet.
- Past performance ratings: 62% for both Kansas City and for facing Los Angeles.
- Bet rating: 75.
NY Jets +104 at Washington
- Expert voting: 65%. It’s hard to imagine Washington being favored against anyone, so let’s bet against them when they are.
- Past performance ratings: 64% for the Jets, 38% for facing Washington, for a combined 51%.
- Bet rating: 64.
Last Week’s Performance
- We were 3-1 against the spread last week, with hits on SEA +6, BAL -9.5, ARI+5, and missing on DET +2.5. That brings us to 4-3 against the spread so far this season.
- We were 2-1 in over-under bets, hitting on CHI vs. DET under 43 and CLE vs. BUF under 40.5, and missing on NO vs. ATL Over 51. We’re 3-3 in total for over-under bets.
- Moneyline bets didn’t fare as well as the other two categories – we hit on GB -240 but missed on KC -186 and DET +125, for a net loss of 1.6 out of 3 units. That brings us to -4 out of 7 units on ML bets this season.
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Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.