NFL Week 11 Totals Odds, Picks & Predictions (2025)
It’s Week 11 of the 2025 National Football League (NFL) regular season. We’re into mid-November, and the games continue to have more and more meaning. We’re seeing divisional teams start to play each other a second time, and those games are more important than ever.
In Week 11, we get our final International Series game, as the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins meet at Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid at 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network and NFL+ for the first-ever NFL game in Spain. Let’s build our bankroll with our best NFL Week 11 totals picks.
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Best NFL Week 11 Totals Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit
Line Movements & Public Leans
Listed are some of the largest line movements for Week 11 from opening to time of publishing:
- Buccaneers at Bills: 49.5 to 47
- Bengals at Steelers: 46.5 to 49.5
- Texans at Titans: 43.5 to 37
- Bears at Vikings: 45.5 to 48.5
- Panthers at Falcons: 45.5 to 42
- Chargers at Jaguars: 46.5 to 43.5
- Seahawks at Rams: 45.5 to 49
- Ravens at Browns: 44.5 to 38.5
We don’t have a lot of movement on the Spain game or the two primetime games. However, there is a lot more movement in the Sunday games, particularly in the early window. We’ll also be sure to keep a close eye on the weather forecast, although it looks fairly clear in most venues.
Stats & More
In Week 10, the primetime schedule featured some ugly games. In fact, we had a pair of games with 10-7 scores, as the Denver Broncos beat the Las Vegas Raiders on Thursday Night Football, and the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers equaled that futility with a win over the Packers on Monday night.
In the AFC, the Cincinnati Bengals have seen the over cash at a 6-2-1 clip in nine games, while the Baltimore Ravens are close behind with a 6-3 mark. The Tennessee Titans (6-3), Miami Dolphins (6-3-1) and New York Jets (6-4) also have six or more over results, as do the Indianapolis Colts (6-4) and New England Patriots (6-5). In the NFC, the Minnesota Vikings lead the way with a 7-2 mark to the over.
On the flip side, the Denver Broncos have cashed an NFL-high seven under results, going 7-3 so far, and the New Orleans Saints have a mark of 6-3-1 to the under through 10 games, but they’re off this weekend.
Houston Texans (-270) at Tennessee Titans (+220) | O/U 37.5 (-105/-115)
The Texans (4-5) and the Titans (1-8) meet for the second time this season, this time at Nissan Stadium in Nashville.
These AFC South Division rivals met in Space City back in Week 4, with the Texans posting a 26-0 victory at NRG Stadium as the under (39.5) was never really threatened. That was a game in which C.J. Stroud started. He threw for 233 yards and two touchdowns, while Woody Marks had 69 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground, with four catches for 50 yards and another score through the air, introducing himself to casual fans who might’ve missed his play at USC.
Stroud (concussion) will miss his second consecutive game due to a concussion, so Davis Mills starts at quarterback on the road this week against the Titans in a matchup versus rookie Cam Ward. Mills was sharp in Week 10, going for 292 yards and two passing touchdowns, with 20 rushing yards and a score. He struggled against Denver in Week 9 when taking over for Stroud, but his performance is likely to be closer to that Jacksonville performance, as the Titans have been very giving of late.
For Tennessee, it has surprised with three straight over results, but it isn’t due to offensive effort. Tennessee is averaging just 11.8 points per game (PPG) on offense in the past four outings, and it has allowed 27+ points in three in a row.
The Titans are coming off a bye, cashing high last time out in Week 9. The over is 4-0 in four games at home for Tennessee, too, and it is rested and raring to go. Don’t be dissuaded by the fact that Mills is starting; he is more than capable. And, again, the Titans are rested. The first meeting went under, but Tennessee isn’t getting blanked again.
Pick: Over 37.5 Points (-105)
The Panthers (5-5) and the Falcons (3-6) meet at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta for the second time this season. Atlanta is hopeful things are much different than the first time around.
Like the matchup above, Carolina won the first meeting in a stunning 30-0 shutout in Week 3 as a 5-point underdog with a total of (44). It is still one of the most shocking results of the entire 2025 season, as it really made us think differently about both teams.
Speaking of stunning, the Panthers are coming off a 17-7 loss at home to the previously one-win New Orleans Saints. It was the second straight under result for Carolina, and the total has gone low in three of the past four outings. Carolina’s offense has fizzled in the past month, going for just 55 total points (13.8 PPG), although it still has scratched out a couple of wins, both on the road. That includes a 16-13 win in Green Bay in Week 9 as a 13.5-point underdog, so don’t write off Carolina just because of a shoddy offense. The defense has been very good lately, sans the Buffalo game in Week 8 when it was pounded 40-9.
Atlanta lost 31-25 in overtime to the Colts last week in Berlin, and now it has the unfortunate assignment of playing after a European trip. It seems rather unfair that teams are forced to travel overseas, then play the very next week, but at least Atlanta is at home. Still, it should be mandatory to have a bye after such a long journey.
At home, the Falcons are 2-1-1 to the under this season in four games, including a shocking push at most shops in a 34-10 loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 8.
The under is 4-2 in the past six meetings in this series, and the over/under is 2-2 in the past four meetings in Atlanta. With the winning team going for at least 30 points in each of the past three meetings, let’s go high on the total this time.
Pick: Over 42.5 Points (-106)
The Ravens (4-5) and the Browns (2-7) meet at Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, and like we’ve seen in the Great Lakes area in recent weeks, weather is going to be a huge factor.
The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the low 40s with a slight chance of precipitation and a low cloud deck. The biggest problem is wind, which will be blowing off of Lake Erie at 23-26 miles per hour (MPH) sustained, with gusts to gale force.
These teams met in Week 2, with Baltimore posting a 41-17 win at M&T Bank Stadium. The over has cashed in four straight meetings since November 12th, 2023, and the over has a slight 3-2 edge in the past five battles in Northeast Ohio.
With the strong winds, we’re likely to see very little passing, at least downfield, with short to intermediate routes only. And, we won’t likely see many long field-goal attempts. The coaches could even opt to go for two, rather than extra points, if the gusts are really swirling. It’s a recipe for the under, as a more ground-based attack keeps the clock moving, which under bettors love.
Pick: Under 39.5 Points (-115)
Week 11 Parlay
- Texans at Titans Over 37.5 Points (-105)
- Panthers at Falcons Over 42.5 Points (-106)
- Ravens at Browns Under 39.5 Points (-115)
Parlay Odds: +609
Week 11 Teaser Parlay (8 Points)
- Texans at Titans Over 29.5 Points
- Panthers at Falcons Over 34.5 Points
- Ravens at Browns Under 47.5 Points
Teaser Parlay Odds: +100
We cashed our three-team, 6-point teaser last weekend, but we needed every single point in the Atlanta-Indianapolis game in Berlin. The Colts won 31-25 in overtime at Olympiastadion in Berlin, the first-ever over result in five NFL games in Germany. The weather forecast held up in Chicago, as it was crummy all day. In New York, the Jets posted a pair of special teams touchdowns in the first quarter, setting the tone for the rest of the day.
For Week 11, let’s roll with another parlay with those three totals, along with the three-team teaser. Again, as my good friend, Chris David, would say back in the day at VegasInsider.com, “Press, Pass or Fade, but in the end - Good Luck.”