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NFL Week 12 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Picks & Predictions (2022)

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Touchdowns are why we tune into NFL RedZone each Sunday. Below I will provide my predictions for players who will appear on RedZone by scoring a touchdown this Sunday (excludes the Sunday night game).

Below are my year-to-date results (assuming one unit per prop):

Week Units ROI Record
YTD +5.2 5.6% 37 – 54
4 +0.6 5.2% 5 – 7
5 +5.8 44.6% 4 – 9
6 -7.0 -63.6% 2 – 9
7 +2.0 17.8% 6 – 5
8 +0.4 3.0% 6 – 6
9 +1.6 15.8% 5 – 5
10 +2.5 22.4% 5 – 6
11 -0.6 -5.7% 4 – 7

 

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

Murray should see an increase in opportunities with the release of Melvin Gordon this week. Even with Gordon playing 45% of the snaps last week, Murray ran the ball 17 times and found the end zone. He also added four catches through the air, so we should expect him to be featured moving forward. The Panthers rank 27th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (136.9). This game has the lowest total (36.5) on the week, so we likely won’t see many TDs scored. Given the state of these two passing offenses, Murray is the best bet to score in this matchup.

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins

Wilson has carved out a significant role on a high-scoring Dolphins offense in a short time frame. He has scored a TD in both games as a Dolphin and now gets a matchup against the worst run defense in the league. The Dolphins are 13.5-point favorites at home, so we should expect Wilson to get plenty of opportunity in this matchup after seeing 22 opportunities before the bye. While Wilson’s odds have dropped significantly from the +260 we cashed him at in Week 9, he should have a good chance to make it three TDs in three games as a Dolphin.

Chicago Bears at New York Jets

This season, the Bears have given up the most rushing TDs (18) in the NFL. With the Jets turning to Mike White to lead the offense, Michael Carter may stand to benefit. Carter found the end zone in the two games White started and finished in Weeks 8 and 10 of last season. The Jets’ offense is only averaging 14 ppg over the last four games, but the Bears’ defense is giving up 31.2 ppg (last in NFL) over that same span. Something needs to give this week in another sub-40 total game. With the uncertainty around Justin Fields’ health on the Bears’ side, Carter should have the best chance to score in this matchup.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns

The Bucs are fresh off their bye and have won their last two games after getting the offense somewhat back on track in Munich before the bye. Brady was able to find Julio Jones and Chris Godwin for scores in that matchup. Evans should have a good chance to get on the board for the first time since Week 4. He is still seeing the most targets on the team when in the red zone, including seven end-zone targets (11th in the NFL). The Browns have given up five TDs to WRs over the last three games.

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Ravens are 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (86.4) but rank 27th in passing yards allowed (270.4). The Jaguars will look to take advantage of the matchup through the air, and Kirk has been the main target in the Jaguars’ passing attack. Kirk has rewarded the Jaguars so far after receiving a massive deal in the offseason. He is 4th in the NFL with seven TDs catches this season, including three over the last two games.

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders

The Commanders’ backfield has been difficult to project this season. With J.D. McKissic done for the season, Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson have split the workload since Week 9. Gibson has had 17.3 opportunities per game to Robinson’s 18.7 over that span. That said, Antonio Gibson took over most of snaps (68%) and opportunities (21) last week. If that workload continues this week, Gibson will have a good chance to score against a Falcons defense that has given up the most rushing TDs in the NFL (10) over the last five games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans

Burks returned from injury in Week 10 and has seen consistent volume over the last two weeks (7 targets per game). Last week he took advantage of that volume with the first 100-yard game of his career. Burks is still only playing about half of the snaps per game, but his involvement in the offense last week makes it seem the Titans will continue to feature him for the remainder of the season. The Bengals’ secondary has given up a TD to a WR in five straight games.

Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals

Allen returned last week, and Herbert immediately started looking his way. Allen ended up playing 68% of the snaps and had 5 catches for 94 yards. With Mike Williams re-aggravating his ankle injury and likely out this week, Allen will continue to see a lot of opportunities against a bad Cardinals defense. Over the last five games, the Cardinals have given up 30.8 ppg and the most receiving TDs in the league (13).

Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks

Adams has led the league in almost every statistical receiving category over the last three weeks. He is averaging 133.7 yards per game while seeing 13.3 targets. He has scored five times over that span, which should continue this week against the Seahawks. This game has one of the higher totals (47.5) on the day, so we should expect some points from both sides. Adams will likely be the beneficiary if the Raiders were to pull off the upset as 3.5-point underdogs on the road.

Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs

  • Isiah Pacheco
  • Anytime TD Odds: +100 FanDuel

With Bryce Perkins getting the start, it is difficult to see the Rams’ injured offense scoring TDs in Kansas City this week. Pacheco has started to take the lead in the Chiefs’ backfield now that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is on IR. Pacheco has turned 31 carries into 189 yards over the last two weeks but has failed to find the end zone. The Chiefs have the second-highest implied team total on Sunday (28.75) and are 15.5-point home favorites. Pacheco will have plenty of opportunities to find the end zone this week.

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers

Choosing which dynamic playmaker will score on the 49ers’ offense is a little difficult since QB Jimmy Garoppolo has plenty to choose from. McCaffrey was the odd man out last week as Kittle, Deebo, and Aiyuk all find the end zone in Mexico City. McCaffrey still has three TDs in four games as a member of the 49ers, so I like the chances he doesn’t go scoreless two games in a row.

(Data per PFF | Odds as of Friday afternoon)

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