NFL Week 12 Line Movement Analysis: Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

by Kurt Blakeway |
Nov 21, 2023

Week 12 of the NFL season may be one of the best weeks of the year. We get three games this Thursday (thanks to Thanksgiving), and we have a Black Friday NFL game for the first time ever. So we are blessed with four NFL games before we even get to Sunday.

As always, we keep tabs on every NFL game and track all significant line movements.

NFL Week 12 Line Movement

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Thanksgiving Day Games

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

Total

Open: 46
Current: 47.5

As the Lions host their annual Thanksgiving Day game, they open as 7.5-point home favorites. The line hasnâ€™t moved at all since being posted on Sunday, but the total is where most of the action has been.

Oddsmakers opened this line at 46, and right away, it dipped down to 45.5. But since that initial dip, this total has shot up and has settled at 47.5.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys

Total

Open: 47.5
Current: 48.5

The Cowboys host the Commanders in its yearly Thanksgiving Day game, and they opened as 11-point game favorites. Like the game above, there is not much action on the side but more on the total.

After opening up at 47.5, this immediately saw action on the over and currently sits at 48.5.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Open: 49ers -7
Current: 49ers -6.5

The look-ahead line has the 49ers pegged as a 4-point road favorite, but after a win against the Buccaneers and a Seahawks loss to the Rams, oddsmakers reopened this line with the 49ers favored by a touchdown.

Since opening at 7, we have seen some action on the home team, knocking this line down to 6.5 at DraftKings.

Black Friday Game

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

Open: Dolphins -7
Current: Dolphins -10

The Dolphins opened as 7-point favorites in the first-ever Black Friday game. With news that Zach Wilson has been benched and Tim Boyle is getting the start, bettors from all over have backed Miami; this line has now reached 10 at DraftKings.

Other Games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts

Open: Colts -1.5
Current: Colts -2.5

The Colts are coming off the bye week as the Buccaneers prepare to play their second straight road game.

The Colts open as 1.5-point home favorites, and with Tampa Bay missing some key defenders, this line has jumped to 2.5.

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos

Open: Broncos -1.5
Current: Broncos -2.5

Both teams are escaping Week 11 with a victory. The Browns squeaked out a win against the Steelers 13-10, while the Broncos beat the Vikings in the final minutes of their MNF battle.

With the line moving in the Broncoâ€™s favor, bettors are looking to back the more experienced QB in Russell Wilson as the Browns are expected to start rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson once again.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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