NFL Week 12: Top Against the Spread, Over/Under, and Moneyline Bets
After a rocky start in Week 9, our bet rating methodology has hit a rhythm – out of 10 recommended bets, we won 9 of them. This was helped a bit by the fact that this article uses lines from Thursday morning – last week, Arizona was still +13.5, which they would cover, unlike the closing line of +9.5. Check after this week’s picks for a full breakdown of our performance last week and year-to-date.
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Top Against the Spread Bets
| Rank | Game | Bet | Expert Voting | Past Performance | Bet Rating |
| 1 | BAL@LAR | BAL -3.5 | 76% | 54% | 69 |
| 2 | NYG@CHI | NYG +6.5 | 74% | 53% | 68 |
| 3 | JAC@TEN | TEN -3 | 76% | 47% | 67 |
Baltimore -3.5 at LA Rams
- Expert voting: 76%. Expert voting was close among our top ATS bets, so past performance ratings break the ties.
- Past performance ratings: 56% for Baltimore, 52% for facing Los Angeles, for a combined 54%.
- Bet rating: 69. This was our top bet rating of any ATS bet this week.
NY Giants +6.5 at Chicago
- Expert voting: 74%.
- Past performance ratings: 46% for New York, 60% for facing Chicago, for a combined 53%.
- Bet rating: 68.
Tennessee -3 vs Jacksonville
- Expert voting: 76%.
- Past performance ratings: 59% for Tennessee, 44% for facing Jacksonville, for a combined 47%.
- Bet rating: 67.
Top Over-Under Bets
| Rank | Game | Bet | Expert Voting | Past Performance | Bet Rating |
| 1 | GB@SF | Over 46 | 84% | 47% | 73 |
| 2 | JAC@TEN | Over 41 | 73% | 48% | 66 |
| 3 | DEN@BUF | Over 37.5 | 73% | 31% | 61 |
Green Bay at San Francisco: Over 46
- Expert voting: 84%. This is our highest voting of any ATS or Over-Under bet.
- Past performance ratings: 40% for Green Bay, 54% for San Francisco, for a combined 47%.
- Bet rating: 73. This is our only bet rating above 70 for an ATS or Over-Under bet.
Jacksonville at Tennessee: Over 41
- Expert voting: 73%.
- Past performance ratings: 44% for Tennessee, 52% for Jacksonville, for a combined 48%.
- Bet rating: 66.
Denver at Buffalo: Over 37.5
- Expert voting: 73%.
- Past performance ratings: 27% for Denver, 35% for Buffalo, for a combined 31%. This is our lowest past performance rating for any recommended bet this week, but it it outweighed by high expert voting.
- Bet rating: 61.
Top Money Line Bets
| Rank | Game | Bet | Expert Voting | Past Performance | Bet Rating |
| 1 | BAL@LAR | BAL -175 | 90% | 58% | 81 |
| 2 | SEA@PHI | SEA +107 | 94% | 36% | 78 |
| 3 | DET@WAS | DET -186 | 83% | 62% | 77 |
| 4 | GB@SF | GB+140 | 75% | 42% | 66 |
Baltimore -175 at LA Rams
- Expert voting: 90%.
- Past performance ratings: 56% for Baltimore, 61% for facing Los Angeles, for a combined 58%.
- Bet rating: 81. This is our highest bet rating of the week for any bet type.
Seattle +107 at Philadelphia
- Expert voting: 94%. This is the second highest expert voting of the week, behind only NO -455, which is at 96%.
- Past performance ratings: 35% for Seattle, 38% for facing Philadelphia, for a combined 36%.
- Bet rating: 78.
Detroit -186 at Washington
- Expert voting: 83%.
- Past performance ratings: 73% for Detroit, 52% for facing Washington, for a combined 62%.
- Bet rating: 77.
Green Bay +140 at San Francisco
- Expert voting: 75%.
- Past performance ratings: 46% for Green Bay, 36% for facing San Francisco, for a combined 42%.
- Bet rating: 66.
Last Week’s Results
- We were 4-0 on our against the spread bets, with wins on DAL -3, ARI +13.5, KC -3.5 and NE -3. That brings us to 8-3 (73%) on the season.
- We were 2-1 on over-unders, winning on CLE-PIT under 40.5 and MIN-DEN over 38.5, and losing on CAR-ATL over 51. We’re 5-4 (56%) on the season.
- We were 3-0 on money line bets, winning DAL -196, KC -195 and NYJ +104, for a profit on 2.1 out of 3 units. That brings us to a net loss of 1.9 out of 10 units on the season.
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Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.