NFL Week 13 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks & Predictions (2025)
If you like longshots, this week's NFL Week 13 anytime touchdown scorer picks article is for you. The shortest odds on the card this week are +195, ranging up to a +1600 odds play that is badly mispriced.
That could bode well for us, as the underdogs were barking on a very entertaining Thanksgiving Day slate of games. Even though four games have already been played, we have a full Sunday afternoon of 10 games ahead of us. To my friends in the Midwest, dealing with some pretty serious snowfall, like myself, bundle up, grab a hot beverage and let's cash some tickets.
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Best NFL Week 13 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets
John Metchie III (WR – NYJ) | +340
It's strange to say, but New York has been a breath of fresh air for John Metchie, who has had a tough time finding an opportunity in the NFL after missing his entire rookie season due to a battle with leukemia. He's making the most of his time with the Jets, though, recording season highs in targets, receptions and yards in back-to-back weeks and recording a touchdown in each game.
It looks like Tyrod Taylor is set to start at quarterback again, which raises both the ceiling and the floor for Jets receivers, especially Metchie, who doubled up his receptions and targets with Taylor under center compared to any game he played with Justin Fields.
I've been saying this for a few weeks now, but this Falcons defense is a bit of a paper tiger, with their overall numbers being boosted by some outlier early-season performances. They've been susceptible to opposing wideouts this season, ranking tied for ninth in touchdowns allowed to wideouts this year. Give me Metchie to stay hot and score for the third straight week against an overrated Falcons defense.
San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – SF) | +700
I'm looking toward the 49ers backfield for my anytime touchdown pick in this game, though I'm going with the backup Brian Robinson Jr. rather than Christian McCaffrey. Robinson has been productive in his role this season, averaging just shy of five yards per carry and averaging 6.4 carries per game in games where he logged at least one rush. This pick has a lot to do with how I see the game playing out, as I think there's a lot of potential for a blowout on the 49ers’ side, leading to increased opportunities for Robinson.
Yes, the Browns picked up a decisive win in Shedeur Sanders’ first start, but that had much more to do with the absolute incompetence of the Raiders rather than anything. I don't foresee the 49ers allowing 10 sacks this week, and I think the chance for Browns turnovers is much higher against this defense. Despite sharing the backfield with one of the best in the NFL, Robinson has still recorded 12% of all red-zone carries and just shy of 10% of all 49ers carries inside the 10-yard line.
The 49ers’ rushing offense also has a great matchup this week against a bottom-10 scoring Raiders defense, which is tied for the fourth-most touchdowns conceded to running backs on the season. I love a sprinkle on Robinson to find paydirt in a great matchup in a game I see getting out of hand.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Chimere Dike (WR – TEN) | +210
This was my toughest game to break down this week, as I went back and forth on several different options before finally landing on Titans Rookie receiver/returner Chimere Dike. The Titans have had a very frustrating year in Cam Ward's rookie campaign, making it difficult to buy any piece of this offense, but Dike has been one of the lone bright spots.
Dike really didn't become a consistent part of this offense until their October 19th game against New England, but has seen his usage and production magnify since then. He's recorded 40+ receiving yards in three out of five games over that time span, including two receiving touchdowns. Dike has become one of Cam Ward's favorite red-zone targets, with one-third of all red-zone targets to Titans pass-catchers going Dike's way.
Dike has also proven to be one of the biggest return threats in the game, with two punt return touchdowns on the season. The Jaguars’ defense has been susceptible to opposing wideouts this season, conceding the eighth-most passing yards per game and ranking tied for ninth in touchdowns allowed to wide receivers.
In a game where I really don't like any of the anytime touchdown options, I'll take Dike as the explosive threat who can score from anywhere on the field at odds of anything 2/1 or better.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Tyler Warren (TE – IND) | +195
Rookie tight end Tyler Warren has had a very solid debut season for the Colts, certainly seeming like the top tight end to come out of the 2025 NFL Draft class. Warren has logged four or more receptions, five or more targets and 38+ yards in all but one game this season. Warren is currently in the midst of a touchdown drought, though, failing to score in their previous four games after a four-week stretch where he scored in every game.
Warren has dominated the target share around the end zone, responsible for 28% of all Colts red-zone targets and one-third of all targets to Colts pass-catchers inside the 10-yard line. Don't rule out the possibility of Warren carrying the ball into the end zone, either, as he has 1 rushing touchdown on four carries this season.
Daniel Jones will also be suiting up for this game despite having a leg fracture, which will seemingly eliminate him as a rushing threat, which should only increase the opportunities for Warren. I like for him to break out of his mini-slump this week and get back into the end zone.
New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins
Tyler Shough (QB – NO) | +1600
As someone who gave out Taysom Hill as a best bet last week and watched the Saints get stuffed inside the 5-yard line on multiple occasions, Tyler Shough is absolutely worth a sprinkle at +1600. Shough carried the ball a season-high seven times in Week 12. Despite only starting four games, Shough has accounted for 31% of all Saints carries inside the 10-yard line and 33% of all Saints carries inside the 5-yard line.
The Dolphins’ defense they'll be up against has also proven to be very susceptible to the quarterback run game, currently allowing the fourth-most rushing yards and is tied for third-most in rushing touchdowns allowed to opposing quarterbacks. With that kind of usage in limited opportunities against a vulnerable defense, I love putting some couch change on Shough to run one on Sunday.
Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers
Terrance Ferguson (TE – LAR) | +800
I'm looking at another rookie tight end to score this week, taking a shot on Terrance Ferguson to find the end zone at some really juicy odds. While Ferguson only has five receptions on the season, he's done some big damage with his opportunities, averaging 27 yards per reception with a touchdown against the Jaguars at the end of October.
The Rams have really leaned into their heavier personnel around the red zone lately, as a Rams tight end has caught a touchdown pass in each of their previous six games, with seven total touchdowns to Rams tight ends over that span. The Panthers have also been vulnerable to the tight end position this season, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, including being tied for ninth for allowing the most touchdowns to tight ends.
Colby Parkinson has been the hot hand lately, but Ferguson is absolutely worth a dart throw this week as an overlooked weapon in an advantageous matchup on a Rams offense led by odds-on MVP favorite Matthew Stafford.
Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While Emeka Egbuka has been the headliner rookie wide receiver in the Buccaneers offense, Tez Johnson has put together a really nice rookie campaign of his own. Johnson has recorded 40+ yards in all but two of his seven games as a real contributor in this offense, including five touchdowns in his previous six games.
Baker Mayfield is set to start this week after leaving last week's game early due to injury, which is obviously huge considering how Teddy Bridgewater performed in relief. Johnson has been a red-zone weapon despite his smaller stature, recording a touchdown on three of his four red-zone receptions, including one inside the 10-yard line.
Chris Godwin does not look anywhere close to his normal self, with only 61 receiving yards on eight total receptions in his injury-plagued season. While the Cardinals’ defense is certainly improved compared to previous years, they're currently allowing the eighth-most points in the NFL, so I expect Tampa Bay to be able to put up points in this game, which features one of the highest totals on the board in Week 13.
I'll take Johnson with odds in excess of 4/1 to build on his connection with Mayfield and score his sixth touchdown in seven games.
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) | +270
If I bought Justin Jefferson at +200 odds last week, I'm absolutely going back to him as +270. Look, I get that undrafted rookie Max Brosmer will be suiting up at quarterback for Minnesota this week, but is that really a bad thing considering just how bad J.J. McCarthy has been this season?
Jefferson ranks in the top 12 in both receptions and yards this season despite the awful quarterback play, which is a testament to his pedigree and talent. He's also still the top dawg on this offense in terms of targets around the end zone, garnering 20% of all targets to Minnesota's receivers in the red zone and one-third of all targets inside the 10-yard line.
The spread implies Minnesota will likely be chasing points, increasing the pass-catching opportunities for Jefferson as well. This play is nothing more than an extreme buy-low on one of the top three receivers in football. Brosmer should raise the floor of this offense and feed Jefferson in a way McCarthy hasn’t been able to.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Oronde Gadsden II (TE – LAC) | +200
Chargers rookie tight end Oronde Gadsden has been extremely productive since becoming the No. 1 TE in this offense, recording five or more catches in all but two games and 40+ yards in all but one game for two total touchdowns. What's more eye-popping, though, has been his usage in the red zone.
Despite his delayed incorporation into the offense, Gadsden ranks second on the Chargers with 21% of all red-zone targets and third with 18% of all targets inside the 10-yard line. The Raiders’ defense he'll see this week ranks in the bottom 10 in points allowed per game, and just allowed 24 points in a great home spot in Shedeur Sanders' first career start.
I expect the Chargers to have little resistance moving the football in this game, and instead of trying to pick the right wide receiver, I'll take Gadsden as the high-volume red-zone weapon to get back into the end zone this week.
Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Gabe Davis has been re-homed in Buffalo, the same team where he made a name for himself. While he hasn't had much production in his first two games back in a Bills uniform, I did take note that the Bills drew up a 1-on-1 slant at the goal line for Davis in his first game back. He's also recorded a 22-yard reception in each of his two games, showing that he still poses a threat in the intermediate range as well.
The 2025 iteration of the Steelers’ defense is far less imposing than its previous versions, as they're currently allowing the most passing yards per game of any team in the NFL and rank fourth-worst in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing wideouts weekly, including 11 total touchdowns to wide receivers.
The Bills are really lacking a big-bodied pass-catching weapon around the goal line, as Keon Coleman is the high man with only three targets inside the 10-yard line, so I definitely think there is an intention to get Davis looks around the goal line. At over 3/1 odds in an advantageous matchup, give me Davis and Josh Allen to connect for a touchdown this week.