NFL Week 13 Early Lines vs. Line Movement Predictions (2022)
Week 12 saw seven underdogs cover the spread, including four who won outright. Additionally, the Minnesota Vikings got back to their winning ways and could wrap up the NFC North this week. Elsewhere, every team in the NFC East would be in the playoffs if they started today, while all four teams in the NFC South are below .500.
Here is a look at some early Week 13 lines and where you should expect them to move.
Special Offer: Get 1 FREE year of BettingPros Premium access >>
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
This week’s line for Thursday Night Football opens in no man’s land as the Patriots and Bills meet for the first time this season. Without any key numbers in play, it’s hard to know exactly where this will move as the week progresses.
However, the Bills have not looked like themselves over the last four weeks, winning only twice. Meanwhile, the Patriots are coming off a hard-fought loss in Minnesota on Thanksgiving night.
With the Patriots the home team and in desperate need of a win, look for this line to move in their favor, even if there won’t be any significant numbers to pass through.
Current Line: Bills -5.5
Predicted Final Line: Bills -4.5
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings
After his first start as a New York Jet, fans are ready to build a statue of quarterback Mike White. He threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns and gave life to an offense that scored just three points last week.
Now the Jets are three-point road underdogs against the 9-2 Vikings. The Vikings have been in nail-biters all season and last week’s 33-26 win over the Patriots was no different.
With this number opening right at the key number, it seems Oddsmakers aren’t really sure where it will move. We expect the Jets to see some support early but the Vikings to take the brunt of bets as Sunday gets closer.
Current Line: Vikings -3
Predicted Final Line: Vikings -4
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
The 8-3 Dolphins are getting the hook in San Francisco this week, which is suspect. The 49ers may have shut out the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, but the offense scored just 13 points in the game. The Saints’ offense was also 0-2 in the red zone, and they had two turnovers.
The Dolphins are coming off a dominant performance against the Texans, allowing them to rest Tua Tagovailoa and other starters in the second half.
The 49ers have won four in a row straight up and against the spread, and their defense looks incredible. However, they should not be favored by more than a field goal against arguably the best team in the AFC. Bettors will follow suit, and this will drop below the key number.
Current Line: 49ers -3.5
Predicted Final Line: 49ers -2.5
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have lost five in a row, and they got more bad news on Sunday when Allen Robinson suffered a foot injury. The defending Super Bowl champions have had no luck this season, and it seems that at 3-8, the season has officially slipped away.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks have lost two in a row, and if the playoffs started today, they would be on the outside looking in.
It’s unlikely that this line will move through any key numbers, but if Matthew Stafford is out again, then the Rams have absolutely no offense. With no passing attack, they won’t be able to take advantage of the Seahawks’ major weakness. Look for this line to move up close to a touchdown by kickoff.
Current Line: Seahawks -4.5
Predicted Final Line: Seahawks -6.5
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have won three in a row to pull even with the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North. On the season, the Bengals are 8-3 against the spread, though they see very little love as the home team against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have won five in a row, but they are just 4-6-1 against the spread this season. Yet, the Chiefs are a very public team, and the Bengals have been inconsistent even during their winning streak. Look for this line to move in favor of the Chiefs, pushing through the key number.
Current Line: Chiefs -2.5
Predicted Final Line: Chiefs -3.5
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The NFC South gets worse every week. With the Bucs’ loss to the Browns in Week 12, there is not a single team in the division at .500. Yet, the Bucs are favored by 5.5 points over the 4-8 Saints.
On Sunday, the Saints’ offense was shut out for the first time since 2001, but did they look as bad as the final score? Their defense played really well, and the offense had opportunities. But will any of that matter to bettors?
We don’t think so, as we expect this line to move in favor of the Bucs and get close to the key number.
Current Line: Buccaneers -5.5
Predicted Final Line: Buccaneers -6.5
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top-rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to a more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.