NFL Week 13 First TD Scorers Picks & Predictions (2024)
Someone must score the first touchdown of the game. This article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.
I will track my plays here on BettingPros. Let's get to the first touchdown scorer predictions for NFL Week 13.
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NFL Week 13 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
George Pickens has not found the end zone much this season but is receiving a lot of targets. He has 15 targets inside the red zone and has caught six with two touchdowns. He is averaging 8.7 targets since the bye week, up from his season average of 7.6.
Pickens disappeared against the Browns last week, but the Steelers need him to produce this week. The conditions had much to do with that performance, but I expect a few big plays from Pickens this week.
Pick: George Pickens (+1000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons
Darnell Mooney was on the injury report before the bye in Week 12 but logged a full practice on Thursday and should be good to go. He has been stellar all season, with five touchdowns and 7.4 targets per game.
The Chargers have been a stingy defense, but I expect the Falcons to come out of the bye week with more confidence. Mooney has been the spark plug to this offense all season. I expect the Falcons to get him involved early. Drake London is questionable with a hip injury, so Mooney must step up in the passing game, especially if London were to miss this game.
Pick: Darnell Mooney (+1500 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Texans hit a home run by signing Joe Mixon in the offseason. He is averaging 112.4 all-purpose yards per game and has scored 10 times on the ground and once through the air. The matchup this week does not get much easier.
The Jaguars have been torched by opposing backs this season, especially catching passes. They allow 5.64 receptions and 48.82 yards per game to running backs while allowing 14 rushing touchdowns. Mixon missed their Week 4 matchup due to injury and Cam Akers did not provide much output. I expect Mixon to be the workhorse before their bye week.
Pick: Joe Mixon (+360 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
The volume for Jonathan Taylor has not been an issue, but his production has. He has played more than 90% of snaps in the last two weeks since Anthony Richardson returned as the starter. He only has 92 rushing yards on 35 rushing attempts, which is only 2.6 yards per attempt.
There should be more room to run this week against the weak Patriots' run defense. They allow 123.1 rushing yards per game, with 4.3 yards per attempt. Taylor should have a bounce-back game this week and find the end zone for the first time since Week 8.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor (+600 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings
Aaron Jones is coming off a great game against the Bears. It was his first 100-yard rushing game since Week 3 and his first score since Week 7. The workload will be there for Jones, but the matchup is not great.
There are no matchups I love in this game. The Cardinals have not allowed more than 100 yards rushing since Week 8, but their competition has not been great. Jones can gash this defense and do it through the air, where he averages 3.4 targets per game.
Pick: Aaron Jones (+550 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders
Tyjae Spears will likely return to the lineup for the Titans this week, but I do not think it will matter much. He has been a non-factor even when active. Tony Pollard may see his snap percentage decrease, but his usage should remain steady.
The Commanders have struggled against the run all season, allowing 145.5 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per attempt. Pollard had 100 yards and found the end zone last week, and has a solid chance to repeat that stat line.
Pick: Tony Pollard (+800 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets
Kenneth Walker is averaging 14.3 rushing attempts and 4.7 targets per game. He is also averaging 85.2 all-purpose yards per game and has found the end zone eight times this season. His production in the passing game last week should give you hope for this week.
The Jets have been a solid team against the run but allow the second-most yards per reception (8.7) to running backs. He had four catches for 52 yards last week and has a good chance to match or beat that stat line this week.
Pick: Kenneth Walker (+500 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
The Panthers' run defense has been the matchup to target all season. They allow the most rushing yards per game (160.5) and have allowed 17 rushing touchdowns. The problem this week is choosing the right running back from the Buccaneers.
Rachaad White and Bucky Irving have been splitting snaps and carries in this backfield, but Irving has been the better runner. He is averaging 6.4 yards per attempt over the past two games and scored in each game. He also caught six passes for 64 yards last week, which was a pleasant surprise. Irving is a solid play this week.
Pick: Bucky Irving (+600 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints
The Rams are a completely different team when Puka Nacua is in the lineup. He is averaging 81.7 yards per game but only has one touchdown. Cooper Kupp has five and Demarcus Robinson has six scores. They are both ahead of Nacua in red-zone targets, but Nacua is the playmaker for this team.
Nacua is averaging 13.8 yards per reception since returning in Week 8. His big-play threat gives him a chance to score every week. The Saints have been a tough team to throw against, but the Rams' offense is built differently and relies on the arm of Matthew Stafford.
Pick: Puka Nacua (+800 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens
My strategy with this game is to pick a contrarian option. Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley will certainly receive a lot of deserved love from the public. They will both likely score in this game, but I am taking Jalen Hurts.
The Ravens have been a pass funnel all season, allowing the second-most passing yards and second-fewest rushing yards per game. Hurts has had more than 10 rushing attempts in four of his last five games and has scored seven touchdowns in that span. He and Barkley have been a force on the ground, but Hurts offers more value in scoring first.
Pick: Jalen Hurts (+700 via FanDuel Sportsbook)