NFL Week 13 Picks Against the Spread (2018)

Bye weeks are finally through and we have a full slate of games in Week 13! We start the week out with a pair of NFC division leaders facing off, then we will end Monday night with NFC East rivals that are fighting to just stay relevant. Let’s take a look at all 16 games for this week.

Thursday Night Football

Saints at Cowboys (+7.5)
Weather: Dome

This Thursday night matchup features the leaders of the NFC South and East. New Orleans has been clicking on all cylinders offensively. There isn’t another team on the same level of talent and play design right now. It all starts with the beef up front. The offensive line is having another terrific year, and they should neutralize the talent on Dallas’ defensive line. The linebackers for the Cowboys are getting better at playing the run, but I don’t think they can contain Alvin Kamara is the receiving game. This is one of those games where this defense will really miss the presence of Sean Lee. Offensively for the Cowboys, Amari Cooper has given this group a playmaker it desperately needs, but at the end of the day, Dak Prescott and Jason Garrett still hold them back.

Pick: Saints -7.5 (Medium Confidence), NO 34 — DAL 20

Sunday, Early Games

Bears at Giants (PK)
Weather: 61 degrees, 21% chance of rain

At the time of writing, Chase Daniel is expected to make another start for the Bears at quarterback, and the spread is completely even. We have a classic pick’em! Daniel got the start on Thanksgiving and got the win despite not getting a real practice due to the short week. For this matchup, Daniel has gotten extra days to mentally and physically prepare for the Giants. There’s a reason why he has made all of this money as a backup, and I think he shows it Sunday. The Giants are playing better, but what is their strength offensively? Saquon Barkley. What are their weakness? A lot, but at least offensive line, play design and Eli Manning. The Giants will not be able to hide their offensive line against the Bears.

Pick: Bears PK (Medium Confidence), CHI 30 — NYG 17

Ravens at Falcons (-1)
Weather: Dome

Lamar Jackson really struggled when he was asked to pass, but the rookie will make another start for the Ravens. The Falcons are coming off three tough losses, but they have performed better in the Georgia Dome. This matchup is very obviously a battle between the talent defensively for the Ravens and the weapons the Falcons have assembled offensively. Injuries continue to be the storyline for Atlanta this year, but I think they will find a way end the losing streak here.

Pick: Falcons -1 (Low Confidence), BAL 20 — ATL 24

Cardinals at Packers (-14)
Weather: 36 degrees, 27% chance of snow

The Packers are absolute money in Lambeau, and the Cardinals are terrible everywhere. Despite McCarthy already having one eye on the door (his good eye, not the lazy one), everyone is pretty confident Mr. Rodgers will come away with the win as Josh Rosen and company come to his neighborhood. However, this 14-point spread is incredibly tricky. We must remember how bad the Cardinals really are. They are averaging just 11.8 points on the road this season, compared to the 30 points given up on average. When we mix that in with the Packers being much better in Lambeau, I do think Green Bay finds a way to cover.

Pick: Packers -14 (Low Confidence), ARI 17 — GB 34

Rams at Lions (+10)
Weather: Dome

The Rams are coming off their bye to take on the Lions, who have had a long week after playing on Thanksgiving. Make no mistake, the Lions are bad. They have been bad since the beginning of the season. But since then, they also traded away their top receiver, another went down hurt for the season, and the rookie that finally fixed their rushing woes still isn’t practicing. The Rams can certainly give up points, but they can also put them on the board. When all is said and done, I don’t think the Lions can keep up with the Rams, and Brandin Cooks has been known to perform better on turf.

Pick: Rams -10 (Medium Confidence), LAR 34 — DET 21

Broncos at Bengals (+4.5)
Weather: 51 degrees, 6% chance of rain

The Broncos have beaten the Chargers and Steelers the past two weeks which are two outstanding wins against top AFC teams. The Bengals? Well, they got embarrassed by the Browns, and to top it off, they lost Andy Dalton for the season. While he’s not great, he has an obvious connection with AJ Green that will surely be missed. The Hue Jackson effect is in full, well…effect for the Bengals.

Pick: Broncos -4.5 (Medium Confidence), DEN 24 — CIN 17

Bills at Dolphins (-5)
Weather: 84 degrees, 5% chance of rain

What an exciting divisional matchup. Bills and Dolphins? Wowee. Is my attempt of typing in the most sarcastic, unexcited tone working? The Bills just shut Jalen Ramsey up, while Andrew Luck and the Colts spoiled Ryan Tannehill’s return. Despite losing the game, Tannehill did bring a spark to this offense, which was needed. However, they still aren’t great running the ball, I don’t think they will be able to protect Tannehill for four quarters, and the rush defense is very suspect which is not good news when you’re playing the Bills. I think LeSean McCoy and Josh Allen will both have success on the ground and they will control the clock enough to win.

Pick: Bills +5 (Low Confidence), BUF 20 — MIA 17

Browns at Texans (-6)
Weather: Dome

Cleveland is feeling good about themselves. They have put together two wins in a row for the first time in seemingly forever. On the other side, the Texans have quietly won eight in a row, which is the second-longest active streak. They are getting it done in all phases right now. Every week that goes by is another week of the playbook that receiver Demaryius Thomas has learned. He is finally looking comfortable on the field with DeAndre Hopkins and Deshaun Watson. Speaking of getting better each week, the same can be said for JJ Watt, who I am sure Baker Mayfield is not looking forward to meeting. The Browns are certainly feeling better about themselves now, but I don’t think they can match up with this Texans team at home.

Pick: Texans -6 (Medium Confidence), CLE 20 — HOU 27

Colts at Jaguars (+4.5)
Weather: 81 degrees, 1% chance of rain

The Jaguars are a dumpster fire. Last week, starting center Brandon Linder and left guard Andrew Norwell were both placed on injured reserve, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett was fired, quarterback Blake Bortles was benched for Cody Kessler, and running back Leonard Fournette was suspended. On top of that, it appears star corner Jalen Ramsey will miss this game. The Colts, on the other hand, have won five straight games. It’s worth pointing out that the only road game in that mix was against the Raiders, but the Colts are clearly in a better place than Jacksonville right now, despite also being banged up. The Jaguars defense is still good without Ramsey, but there is a hole. If Andrew Luck can exploit that, then the Colts will easily win. I think Jacksonville moves the ball and Carlos Hyde is fully capable of leading the rushing attack, but a poor pass blocking line losing two interior guys is bad news.

Pick: Colts -4.5 (Medium Confidence), IND 27 — JAX 20

Panthers at Buccaneers (+3.5)
Weather: 82 degrees, no chance of rain

This is a tough game to predict because there are two very different versions of each team. The Panthers have just one win on the road this season, and the defense has been exposed a number of times now. However, Cam Newton is playing fantastic football, rookie D.J. Moore is getting more comfortable, and Christian McCaffrey is nothing short of phenomenal. The Panthers do look like they will be without number one receiver Devin Funchess, which limits their offense some. The Buccaneers have been a rollercoaster all season as they flip between starting quarterbacks. Jameis Winston and the pass offense looked pretty good last week, and they should find some success against Carolina. The running game is still poor, which makes me believe they won’t pull this game out. However, I do think they keep it close and the Panthers will fail to cover the spread.

Pick: Buccaneers +3.5 (Low Confidence), CAR 27 — TB 24

Sunday, Late Games

Chiefs at Raiders (+15)
Weather: 53 degrees, no chance of rain

Much like I said with the Packers above, there’s little doubt that the Chiefs are going to win this game, but 15 points is a lot to cover. But if anyone can do it, it would be Patrick Mahomes. We can also throw in that Andy Reid-coached teams are well-prepared and play well after bye weeks. I expect to see a hard-fought first quarter between the teams, but Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will run loose as the game goes on.

Pick: Chiefs -15 (Medium Confidence), KC 38 — OAK 17

Jets at Titans (-7.5)
Weather: 63 degrees, no chance of rain

The Jets are “optimistic” that Sam Darnold will be back at quarterback for this week. Is that an upgrade over McCown? I’m not so sure. The Titans are horribly inconsistent, but playing at home should help them get back on track. They have lost just a single game at home this year, whereas the Jets have won just one on the road. The poor run defense of the Jets will be put to the test, and I don’t think they will be able to stop the Titans on the ground consistently.

Pick: Titans -7.5 (Medium Confidence), NYJ 13 — TEN 24

49ers at Seahawks (-10)
Weather: 38 degrees, no chance of rain

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are sort of clicking right now despite an underwhelming roster. Doug Baldwin seems to be getting better and better as the weeks go on, and Wilson has simply been magic. The 49ers are an injured mess to put it lightly. They are 0-6 on the road this season, and they will extend the streak with this game. The rushing attack for Seattle will not be stopped, and Russell Wilson in play action is dangerous.

Pick: Seahawks -10 (Medium Confidence), SF 17 — SEA 30

Vikings at Patriots (-5.5)
Weather: 56 degrees, 22% chance of rain

Despite Gronkowski finding the end zone, the Patriots still didn’t look right against the Jets in Week 12. There is the same sentiment about the Vikings, since they got a big divisional win over the Packers last week, but they still are not at the level of last season’s team. Heading to New England, the Vikings will look to prove that they can play at a high level outdoors. Under Zimmer, this has not been the case, and they will have a tough time proving it against the Patriots of all teams. Offenses can move the ball on the Vikings this year, so I expect the Patriots to utilize all weapons in this one. There also is a slight chance of rain during this game. For a fumble-prone team like the Vikings, this is more bad news.

Pick: Patriots -5.5 (Medium Confidence), MIN 20 — NE 31

Sunday Night Football

Chargers at Steelers (-3.5)
Weather: 48 degrees, 2% chance of rain

In one of the best games of the week, the Chargers travel to Pittsburgh for Sunday Night Football. Philip Rivers is coming off an incredible 28/29 passing day, but the offense will be without star running back Melvin Gordon. This is a big loss, as the success the running game has had is what sets up the passing of Rivers. The Steelers are coming off a tough loss against the Broncos where Big Ben threw a last-second interception to a defensive lineman. While the offense is still stacked, they have underperformed in the past two games. They will need to step it up against Joey Bosa and the Chargers. Los Angeles has given up less than 20 points in six of the past seven games, though the offenses they faced were pretty mediocre. The spread is tight and rightfully so, but I just don’t know how the Chargers offense will flow if the running game struggles. Because of this, I’m leaning towards the home team.

Pick: Steelers -3.5 (Low Confidence), LAC 23 — PIT 28

Monday Night Football

Redskins at Eagles (-6.5)
Weather: 44 degrees, no chance of rain

A battle between the second and third place teams in the NFC East. We can look to injuries to explain why these teams are fighting to just stay relevant for another week. Colt McCoy has taken over as quarterback for Washington, and he did not look good in the loss to Dallas on Thanksgiving. The Eagles are banged up in a number of areas, but the depleted secondary is the most obvious. The weakness of the Eagles right now is that secondary, and I simply don’t think the Redskins have a good enough passing attack to exploit it. Being at home with their backs up against the wall, I give the Eagles the edge in prime time.

Pick: Eagles -6.5 (Medium Confidence), WAS 20 — PHI 27

Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.