NFL Week 13: Top Against the Spread, Over/Under, and Moneyline Bets

This is the fifth in this series of bet analyzer articles, and I’ve noticed two patterns in the bets our system has had success with:

1. We’ve done much better against the spread than in over-under and money line bets.
2. Almost all of the against the spread bets with high expert voting have been visiting teams.

It seems that in general, our experts have way less respect for the home field advantage than the bookmakers. So far, we’ve highlighted 13 ATS bets on road teams, and won on an excellent 10 of them (77%). Of those, we’re 4-1 (80%) on underdogs, and 6-2 (75%) on favorites. 13 bets is obviously a tiny sample size, and I’m not saying you should go bet every road team. But it seems like one thing our expert consensus does well is identify situations where the books are giving too much respect to the home team. We have two more examples this week: New England at Houston and Green Bay at the Giants, both over 80% expert voting.

Top Against the Spread Bets

Rank	Game	Bet	Expert Voting	Past Performance	Bet Rating
1	NE@HOU	NE -3	92%	54%	81
2	MIN@SEA	SEA -3	78%	57%	72
3	GB@NYG	GB -6.5	80%	49%	71

 
New England -3 at Houston

• Expert voting: 92%. This is our highest of the week for any ATS bet.
• Past performance ratings: 59% for NE, 48% for facing HOU, for a combined 54%.
• Bet rating: 81. This is our highest bet rating for an ATS bet since Week 9.

Seattle -3 vs Minnesota

• Expert voting: 78%.
• Past performance ratings : 64% for SEA, 50% for facing MIN, for a combined 57%.
• Bet rating: 72. This is a rare rating above 70 for a home team.

Green Bay -6.5 at NY Giants

• Expert voting: 80%.
• Past performance ratings: 50% for GB, 48$ for facing NYG, for a combined 49%.
• Bet rating: 71.

Top Over-Under Bets

Rank	Game	Bet	Expert Voting	Past Performance	Bet Rating
1	NYJ@CIN	Over 41	82%	51%	73
2	BUF@DAL	Under 45	75%	56%	70
3	GB@NYG	Over 46.5	75%	51%	68

 
NY Jets at Cincinnati: Over 41

• Expert voting: 82%.
• Past performance ratings:  42% for CIN, 59% for NYJ, for a combined 51%.
• Bet rating: 73. This is an unsurprisingly low total for these two teams, but the Jets have scored 34 points three weeks in a row. They could very well hit this total all by themselves.

Buffalo at Dallas: Under 45

• Expert voting: 75%.
• Past performance ratings : 46% for DAL, 67% for BUF, for a combined 56%.
• Bet rating: 70.

Green Bay at NY Giants: Over 46.5

• Expert voting: 75%.
• Past performance ratings: 63% for NYG, 39% for GB, for a combined 51%.
• Bet rating: 68.

Top Money Line Bets

Rank	Game	Bet	Expert Voting	Past Performance	Bet Rating
1	NE@HOU	NE -170	94%	68%	87
2	LAC@DEN	LAC -155	83%	43%	72
3	CHI@DET	CHI -104	80%	42%	69
4	CLE@PIT	CLE +114	76%	44%	67

 
New England -200 at Houston

• Expert voting: 94%. This is massive for a line better than -20o.
• Past performance ratings: 66% for NE, 70% for facing HOU, for a combined 68%.
• Bet rating: 87.

LA Chargers -108 at Denver

• Expert voting: 83%.
• Past performance ratings: 53% for LAC, 33% for facing DEN, for a combined 43%.
• Bet rating: 72.

Chicago -104 at Detroit

• Expert voting: 80%.
• Past performance ratings: 48% for CHI, 36% for facing DET, for a combined 42%.
• Bet rating: 69.

Cleveland +114 at Pittsburgh

• Expert voting: 76%.
• Past performance ratings: 48% for CLE, 40% for facing PIT, for a combined 44%.
• Bet rating: 67.

Last Week’s Results

We had another good week for ATS bets, and more of a mixed bag for totals and money lines:

• We were 3-0 against the spread, winning BAL -3.5, NYG +6.5 and TEN -3. That brings us to 11-3 (78%) against the spread this season.
• We were 1-2 on totals, winning JAC-TEN Over 41, but losing SF-GB Over 46 and DEN-BUF Over 37.5. We are 6-6 on the season for totals.
• We were 2-2 on money lines, winning and losing a favorite and an underdog each. We won BAL -175 and SEA +107, but lost DET -186 and GB +140, for a net loss of 0.5 units out of 4. We are down 2.4 out of 14 units this season.