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NFL Week 14 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

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Touchdowns are why we tune into NFL RedZone each Sunday. Below I will provide my predictions for players who will appear on RedZone by scoring a touchdown this Sunday (excludes the Sunday night game).

Below are my year-to-date results (assuming one unit per prop):

Week Units ROI Record
YTD +2.8 2.5% 45 – 69
4 +0.6 5.2% 5 – 7
5 +5.8 44.6% 4 – 9
6 -7.0 -63.6% 2 – 9
7 +2.0 17.8% 6 – 5
8 +0.4 3.0% 6 – 6
9 +1.6 15.8% 5 – 5
10 +2.5 22.4% 5 – 6
11 -0.6 -5.7% 4 – 7
12 -1.0 -9.4% 4 – 7
13 -1.3 -10.8% 4 – 8

 

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Moore’s role increased substantially last week. He ended up playing 68% of the snaps and ran a route on 45 of the 46 pass plays he was in on. If this usage continues, we should expect more production than the two catches he had last week. The Bills’ pass defense has also been susceptible over the last month of the season. They rank 27th in passing yards allowed and have given up six TDs to WRs (29th in the NFL) during that span. Moore has already caught a TD from QB Mike White in one of the two games he has started.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

The Lions are 2.5-point favorites over the 10-2 Vikings. The game total (51.5) is the highest on the slate, so we should see plenty of TDs. Swift had 20 opportunities for the first time this season and was able to capitalize with over 100 total yards and a TD for the first time since Week 1. Jamaal Williams will still be involved in short-yardage situations, but I think Swift showed he is capable of being more involved in a high-scoring offense moving forward. Even with Williams there, Swift has been involved in the red zone, ranking 6th over the last five weeks in opportunities inside the 20.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Sanders has nine rushing TDs on the season, which ranks 5th in the NFL. His usage varies from week to week, but Sanders consistently gets high-value touches in the red zone on the third-highest-scoring team in the NFL. The Giants have struggled against opposing RBs recently. Over the last four games, they have allowed five TDs (29th in the NFL) and 133.5 yards per game to RBs.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Chase returned from his first game since the hip injury and showed no signs of being eased in. He resumed his normal workload from Burrow and finished with seven catches for 97 yards on eight targets. He did not find the end zone, but I don’t expect that to continue for Chase, who had six TDs through the first seven weeks before his injury. The Browns’ defense has allowed the third most points in the league (23.8), so we should expect the Bengals to put up some points this week after a big win against the Chiefs. The Browns have allowed at least one TD to an opposing WR in five straight games.

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have the highest implied team total (30.75) weekly and are 17.5-point favorites against the Texans. The answer to which Cowboys RB to score this week will likely be both, just as they did last week. Elliot and Pollard have both been getting their opportunities when the Cowboys are close to the end zone. Over the last three games, Elliot has four carries inside the 5-yard line to Pollard’s three. I’ll take Tony Pollard at slightly longer odds this week.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Andrews is Huntley’s preferred target when he has been the starter. He has averaged 11.2 targets per game across the five games Huntley played the majority of snaps in last year. Andrews also caught three TDs in those games, so if Huntley were to have success this week, Andrews would likely be the beneficiary.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

The Titans are one of the clear pass-funnel teams in the NFL. The Titans’ defense ranks 31st in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (295.2) but ranks 3rd in rushing yards per game (82.8). The Jaguars will look to attack the Titans through the air, and Kirk has seven receiving TDs (5th in NFL) this season. Assuming Lawrence is healthy, Kirk has a good opportunity to add to his total this week.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

There are many injuries to keep up with on both sides in this matchup. The Seahawks backfield is a mess, with rookie Kenneth Walker and Deejay Dallas both missing practice this week. D’Onta Foreman has a foot injury of his own that should be monitored up until Sunday. Geno Smith and D.K. Metcalf were limited in practice as well this week. That said, I’ll stick with the easy answer, Tyler Lockett. Lockett has scored a TD in five straight games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers

McCaffrey will likely be relied on moving forward with Brock Purdy taking over the offense in San Francisco. Mccaffrey had 25 touches last week and ended up scoring a TD. I expect this usage to continue as HC Kyle Shanahan revamps the offense to fit Purdy’s strengths. It is shocking to see Tom Brady getting 3.5 points against a team led by a third-string QB, but it speaks to how well the 49ers’ defense has been playing. This is also reflected in the Bucs’ implied team total of 17.0 points. In what should be a lower-scoring game, McCaffrey is the best bet for anyone to score this week.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Touchdowns have been hard to come by in Broncos games.  In terms of points per game, the Broncos have the 32nd-ranked offense (13.1 ppg) and the 3rd-ranked defense (16.2 ppg). That said, the Chiefs are the 1st-ranked scoring offense (27.2) in the NFL, so something will have to give. The Broncos’ defense will have difficulty containing the Chiefs if their offense can’t sustain drives. Mahomes’ rushing ability is always a threat, evidenced by two rushing TDs in the last five weeks. At long odds, I’ll take a chance he can score again against a defense that has allowed a rushing TD to QBs Sam Darnold and Tyler Huntley the last two weeks.

(Data per PFF | Odds as of Friday afternoon)

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