NFL Week 14 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets (2024)
If the thought of betting on an underdog makes you cringe, check out these stats from last week: underdogs were 9-5 against the spread, and three won outright. Will there be as many winning underdog bets in NFL Week 14? Who knows, but there is bound to be one. Six teams are on a bye this week, so options are limited.
But we think we’ve identified a couple of promising candidates.
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Best NFL Week 14 Underdog Picks
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Raiders (+235) vs. Buccaneers (-6.5)
Tampa Bay should beat the Raiders. Baker Mayfield is having a good season. Sometimes, he and the offense have taken a while to get on track, but things tend to go well once they do. Mayfield has shown a knack this season for making plays in clutch moments.
There have been a few this season, like last week’s 6-play, 36-yard drive in 30 seconds that set up the game-tying field goal that sent the game to overtime. The passing game is an ever-present threat, and they’ve had some success in the run game. How can the 2-10 Raiders possibly beat the Bucs?
Tampa Bay has not been great at home this season (2-4). Vegas is coming off a road trip to Kansas City, during which they generated well over 400 yards of offense in a notoriously tough stadium. Their defense held the KC offense to 329 yards and 19 points.
If they can do that on the road against the defending champs in their own stadium, surely they can give the Bucs a run for their money in Tampa Bay. I want to believe the Raiders could pull off the upset here, but while the payout on a moneyline bet would be better, it is more likely the Raiders will keep it close rather than win outright.
Pick: Raiders Moneyline (+6.5)
Chargers (+3.5) vs. Chiefs (-205)
It can be hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, even this season when they aren’t as explosive and electric as fans have come to expect. No one knows how to win a game better than the Chiefs do.
If Mahomes does not figure out some magical way to get his team to win, fortune smiles down on the Chiefs, and their opponent misses a crucial field goal attempt. In the process, they have become this season’s kings of one-score games. Nine of their 11 wins have been by one score, four by a field goal or less.
As for the Chargers, Jim Harbaugh has turned them into an NFL version of his Michigan teams: tough as nails on defense and good enough on offense to win. From a yardage standpoint, the defense is good but not great (325.8 yards per game). However, they are also the No. 1 scoring team, allowing a league-leading 15.7 points per game.
The Chiefs have played with fire way too much this season. They should have lost to the Raiders last weekend. But the Chargers are a rare team that is good on both sides of the ball. Their defense will be up to the task vs. the Chiefs. The offense may take some time to warm up against a good Chiefs defense. If they don’t win outright, they’ll do like most teams and keep it within a field goal.
Pick: Chargers Moneyline (+3.5)
Seahawks (+120) vs. Cardinals (-2.5)
Like the Bengals and Steelers last week, the spread for this game doesn’t quite make sense to me. The Seahawks’ defense dominated the Cardinals a couple of weeks ago, holding them out of the end zone and giving up just two field goals.
Oh-and they helped jump-start the scoring with a 69-yard pick-six. On the offensive side, they didn’t do much but didn’t need to.
Last week, the Cardinals gave the Vikings a run for their money but lost 23-22. Seattle needed a half to get the defense on track and had an up-and-down day against the Jets but held on to win 26-21.
The Cardinals have played their best at home this season, going 4-2, but the Seahawks have thrived on the road (4-1). So, I don’t think home-field advantage will mean anything. As for who will win, I’ve got a little more faith in Geno Smith than I do in Kyler Murray. Murray may get the Cards out to an early lead, but Smith will guide the ‘Hawks to a one- or two-point win in the end.
Our Pick: Seahawks Moneyline (+2.5)