NFL Week 14 Picks Against the Spread (2018)

Week 13 was a strange one. The Saints offense was completely shut down, the Chiefs nearly lost to the Raiders, and the Packers finally fired Mike McCarthy. Week 14 looks like it will bring just as much excitement. With the playoffs just around the corner, every game is a must-win for these teams. Let’s take a look at all 16 games for this week.

Thursday Night Football

Jaguars at Titans (-4)
Weather: 40 degrees, no chance of rain

To kick off Week 14, we get a battle of the bottom half of the AFC South. The Jaguars snapped their losing streak last week with a 6-0 win. Leonard Fournette is back from suspension and Cody Kessler remains the quarterback. This is an offense that can be effective running the football, but pass protection is very poor, which is even worse when the passing attack is poor to begin with. The Titans are terribly inconsistent. Remember when they beat down the Patriots? Well, now they are just 6-6. However, they are 4-1 at home. When watching this offense, you can see the potential. You can see what they want to do, but the ball is a step too far, the routes are broken off a little too early, or other little mistakes like that. The first matchup between these two resulted in a 9-6 Titan win. While I expect there to be a little more offensive success, I have a feeling we will be seeing plenty of the punters and kickers in this one. Give the edge to the home team that has more to fight for.

Pick: Titans -4 (Medium Confidence), JAX 16 — TEN 23

Sunday, Early Games

Jets at Bills (-3.5)
Weather: 32 degrees, no chance of rain

The two bottom AFC East teams. The Jets come in with a six-game losing streak. Buffalo isn’t much better, but rookie Josh Allen has led the team to three wins in his last six games. The Bills are starting to have a little more offensive success each week, despite releasing Kelvin Benjamin a few days ago. The Jets are bad and Todd Bowles has already packed his bags. Sam Darnold continues to struggle to make plays, one of my criticisms of him coming out of college. He makes the easy throws, but he has to see the guy open instead of throwing them open. On top of it, the talent around him is about as good as it was at USC. The Bills defense will ultimately win this game for them.

Pick: Bills -3.5 (Low Confidence), NYJ 17 — BUF 23

Panthers at Browns (+2)
Weather: 32 degrees, no chance of rain

The Panthers were viewed as a lock for the playoffs just a few weeks ago, but what a difference a month makes. Carolina has lost its last four games, with the past three being one-score differentials. The Browns have played better as of late, and they currently own a winning record at home. Cam Newton and the Panthers will look to keep their heads above water and get back on track against a defense that ranks in the bottom five in both pass and rush defense. After losing tight end Greg Olsen for the season, expect Norv Turner and the Panthers to use more creativity with Christian McCaffrey, something that has really been a problem for opposing defenses this season. I expect both him and rookie D.J. Moore to have success, and I expect the Carolina defense to show up. This is make or break, and I don’t think the Panthers will fall to a losing record.

Pick: Panthers -2 (Low Confidence), CAR 24 — CLE 21

Falcons at Packers (-6)
Weather: 26 degrees, no chance of snow

After an embarrassing loss to the Cardinals last week, the Packers wasted no time firing Mike McCarthy. Then after a tweet calling out past management of this team, interim head coach Joe Philbin fired linebacker coach Winston Moss as well. This type of shock to the locker room can result in the team falling apart or banding together. After reports arose of McCarthy wanting to take credit for the success of Aaron Rodgers, I expect the quarterback to come out focused and on point. Aaron Jones should see more than half of the offensive snaps as well, which to nobody’s surprise will be an asset to this offense. On the other side, the Falcons have a ton of injuries to very key players. Matt Ryan should be able to move the ball on the Packer defense, but I think Green Bay has a few playmakers that will prove themselves against the Atlanta offensive line. They will make a play when it matters, and that will be the difference in the game.

Pick: Packers -6 (Low Confidence), ATL 21 — GB 28

Ravens at Chiefs (-6.5)
Weather: 33 degrees, 3% chance of snow

Despite winning all three of his starts, rookie Lamar Jackson has proven he is not ready to lead this team. With Joe Flacco questionable for this week, they will have a choice to make. The Baltimore defense is one of the best in the league and has undoubtedly been the reason for success this season. But with the matchup against the league’s best offense, they will need to up their game. We know about Patrick Mahomes. We know about Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and we also know about the former Chief Kareem Hunt. They will come to play and will be difficult to stop. Kansas City will put up points on everybody, so it comes down to the Ravens keeping up. If Lamar Jackson is taking snaps, I don’t think they have a chance. If it’s Flacco, it will certainly boost their chances, but I think it’s too tough to overcome in Arrowhead.

Pick: Chiefs -6.5 (Medium Confidence), BAL 23 — KC 30

Patriots at Dolphins (+7.5)
Weather: 83 degrees, 15% chance of rain

When we think about the Patriots and Dolphins over the past five years, we think about how good the Patriots have been and how the Dolphins have been a mess. While this is true overall, New England has really struggled when traveling to Miami. The Dolphins have actually won four of the past five matchups at home, so anything can happen. The Patriots certainly have not been great this season, but they came out on top against a talented Vikings team last week. Offensively, the Patriots finally have their full repertoire of weapons. However, I expect them to take a run-first approach on Sunday. The Dolphins have been much better with Tannehill at quarterback, and they actually have a 5-1 record at home. When looking into this rivalry, I am not confident in my pick, but I believe the run-heavy approach for New England will be fruitful.

Pick: Patriots -7.5 (Low Confidence), NE 27 — MIA 17

Saints at Buccaneers (+8)
Weather: 73 degrees, 49% chance of rain

The Saints have two losses on the season. The first sparked the beginning of the FitzMagic era in Week 1. The other came last Thursday in another shocking loss to the Cowboys. Drew Brees and the offense just didn’t look focused. Now, the Saints are motivated to get back in the win column, want to get revenge for Week 1, and have had a long week to prepare. Good luck, Bucs.

Pick: Saints -8 (High Confidence), NO 34 — TB 23

Giants at Redskins (+3.5)
Weather: 35 degrees, 9% chance of rain

Down goes Alex Smith. Down goes Colt McCoy. So now, the Redskins turn to Mark Sanchez to keep their season alive. This is 2018, right? I think the Redskins’ season can be perfectly described by Adrian Peterson’s last game. He broke free for a career-long, 90-yard touchdown run. However, he failed to reach 100 yards rushing on the day. The Giants are basically the Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham show. OBJ even threw another touchdown last week, proving he is the best passer on the current roster. While the Giants are by no means good, this is a slightly better team than the Sanchez-led opponents.

Pick: Giants -3.5 (Low Confidence), NYG 24 — WAS 20

Colts at Texans (-4.5)
Weather: Dome

The Texans are running away with the AFC South after winning nine straight games. That’s right, the Texans haven’t lost since September! They get the 6-6 Colts to travel to them this time around after falling to Houston 37-34 to start this winning streak. The Texans simply are clicking on all cylinders. Deshaun Watson is extending plays and hitting DeAndre Hopkins with ease, while his chemistry with Demaryius Thomas and Keke Coutee continues to develop. Lamar Miller has found the fountain of youth, and joining him in the backfield now will be D’Onta Foreman, who was just activated off the PUP list. Defensively, Watt, Mathieu and company torture opposing quarterbacks. The Colts are pretty banged up offensively and won’t be able to match up well with the Texans, despite Eric Ebron playing well.

Pick: Texans -4.5 (Medium Confidence), IND 24  — HOU 31

Sunday, Late Games

Bengals at Chargers (-14)
Weather: 69 degrees, no chance of rain

Philip Rivers and the Chargers had an amazing comeback on Sunday night against the Steelers, proving they can remain mentally tough through the adversity. This is not a team anyone wants to play right now, even with the injury to Melvin Gordon. There is a chance he returns this week, but it would make more sense to hold him out to ensure his health for the matchup next week against the Chiefs. Yes, 14 points is a lot to cover, but if anyone can do it, it’s the Chargers. It also helps that we are talking about a Bengals team that is without both Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. To add to the mess, they also have Hue Jackson messing things up on the sideline.

Pick: Chargers -14 (Medium Confidence), CIN 17 — LAC 34

Broncos at 49ers (+5)
Weather: 58 degrees, 2% chance of rain

Unfortunate news broke out of Denver on Wednesday as Emmanuel Sanders tore his Achilles in practice, obviously ending his season. That leaves this offense pretty shorthanded, with three rookies expected to start for the team. Despite this, the Broncos are still expected to go into San Francisco and win. The Broncos offense should be able to run the ball with their rookie duo, and rookie receiver Cortland Sutton is certainly talented enough to beat these San Fran defenders. What this game comes down to for me is who can convert on third down, since I expect there to be plenty of them. The Broncos still have weapons and the 49ers defense is underwhelming. Offensively for the Niners, they are also banged up, and I don’t expect them to handle the Bronco pass rush well.

Pick: Broncos -5 (Medium Confidence), DEN 27 — SF 17

Eagles at Cowboys (-3.5)
Weather: Dome

The Eagles are in search of a win so they can share the seat atop the division with the Cowboys. It will be a tough win to come by since the Cowboys seem to have figured things out. Amari Cooper looks like a legitimate threat, and the Cowboys have won four straight. They are also 5-1 in Dallas. Coming off their impressive win over the Saints on TNF, the Cowboys have had extra days to prepare for the Super Bowl champs. While the improved offense is getting the praise this defensive unit is really impressing. The Eagles are coming off two much-needed divisional wins to get back to .500. While Dallas has had a long week, Philly had to play on Monday night. Golden Tate’s role in the offense is growing every week, but the scheduling and Dallas’ defense has me leaning their way.

Pick: Cowboys -3.5 (Medium Confidence), PHI 20 — DAL 24

Steelers at Raiders (+10.5)
Weather: 57 degrees, 3% chance of rain

After dropping the past two games, the Steelers will look to get back on track in Oakland. However, they will have to do so without their running back. No, we’re not still talking about Le’Veon Bell but rather James Conner. Mike Tomlin has expressed his interest in taking a committee approach with their backfield weapons in this one. It should be the same old for the passing game, with Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster finding plenty of success against the Raider secondary. For Oakland, they have taken this rebuilding philosophy very seriously. The offense looked much better against the Chiefs last week, but this will be a tougher matchup for them. Call me crazy, but I don’t think Jordy Nelson, Jared Cook, and Doug Martin (if he plays) will be enough to keep this game close. Maybe four, five years ago, but not in 2018.

Pick: Steelers -10.5 (Medium Confidence), PIT 31 — OAK 17

Lions at Cardinals (+2.5)
Weather: Dome

Oofta. This matchup is an ugly one. The 4-8 Lions head to Arizona to face the 3-9 Cardinals. The two things these teams have in common is that they both beat the Packers and they’re both bad. Rookie Kerryon Johnson is expected to miss another game for the Lions, meaning the running game will struggle. Teams are able to focus their energy on stopping the pass, which is also very poor due to Kenny Golladay being the only talent among the receivers. The Cardinals have been one of the better pass defenses in the league, and that should continue this week. Offensively, Arizona has been a mess. Josh Rosen has been bad, the running game hasn’t been able to get going, and Larry Fitzgerald doesn’t look like himself. This will likely be a close, low-scoring game due to these offenses.

Pick: Cardinals +2.5 (Low Confidence), DET 20 — ARI 21

Sunday Night Football

Rams at Bears (+3)
Weather: 30 degrees, no chance of snow

Two of the top NFC teams will face off on Sunday Night Football. Trubisky is expected back for the Bears who have missed his ability to extend plays over the past couple weeks. The Bears are 5-1 at home, with the only loss coming from the Patriots, a talented offensive team. I make that last point because Chicago hasn’t played many teams with good offenses this season, making their defense look stronger than it really is. If the Bears can play with a lead, this is a scary defensive group, but I’m not so sure this week. The front seven is elite, so I won’t argue that. It’s the secondary that can be exposed, much like what Rodgers or the Patriots did to them. Obviously, the Rams are a talented offensive group, and I expect them to rise to the challenge and move the ball in Chicago. The Bears should be able to score too, but I don’t think Trubisky is good enough to put the team on his back and make a play to win the game.

Pick: Rams -3 (Medium Confidence), LAR 30 — CHI 24

Monday Night Football

Vikings at Seahawks (-3)
Weather: 39 degrees, 27% chance of rain

The matchup on Monday Night Football could end up being the deciding factor of who makes the playoffs and who doesn’t. The Vikings sit at 6-5-1 but have won just two games outdoors this season. It seems like they can’t get out of their own way. The Seahawks, on the other hand, are exceeding expectations. They have won three in a row and now possess a winning record. This game will come down to the rush offense of the Seahawks versus the Minnesota run defense. The Seahawks are the best running team in the league this year, which has set Russell Wilson up with some dangerous play-action opportunities. The Vikings are the fifth-best run defense on a per rush basis, but we could point to their divisional opponents and the rest of their schedule and see why this may be. We know how explosive the pass offense of the Vikings can be, but with the pressure of Monday Night Football and the stakes of this game, can Kirk Cousins make the big plays? That’s what Minnesota paid him for, but I’m not so sure.

Pick: Seahawks -3 (Low Confidence), MIN 21 — SEA 27

Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.