NFL Week 14 Preview: Picks & Predictions (Falcons vs. Vikings)

by Travis Pulver |
Dec 08, 2024

The Atlanta Falcons will try to keep their playoff hopes alive this week when they travel to Minneapolis to take on the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. When the odds opened prior to the start of the season, the Falcons were 1-point favorites.

But a lot has happened since then as the season has gone different ways for each team. The line has since shifted and the Vikings have become the betting favorite (-6).

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Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

Details

Opening line: Vikings +1, O/U 45
Closing line: Vikings -6, O/U 46.5
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN
Start Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Last Meeting: November 5, 2023– Minnesota Vikings 31 Atlanta Falcons 28

Overview

After Kirk Cousins left the Minnesota Vikings in the offseason for the Atlanta Falcons, the outlook for both teams was drastically different than it is heading into Week 14 of the regular season. But back in late March, the odds heavily favored Atlanta making the playoffs (-300). Minnesota’s odds of making the playoffs (+260) gave them just a 27.78% chance.

With a win vs. the Falcons and a Cardinals and Rams loss, the 10-2 Vikings can lock down a playoff spot this week. As for the Falcons, at 6-6, their odds of making the playoffs at DraftKings are -135, giving them a 57.45% chance.

Their shot at the playoffs is likely tied to them winning the division (-115). But with an identical record as the Buccaneers, winning the NFC South is far from a certainty.

Cousins was supposed to be the missing piece to the postseason puzzle for the Falcons. With skill position players like Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson, along with one of the better offensive lines in the league, many viewed Atlanta as a quarterback away from becoming a contender.

What should have been factored in was the time it would take for a 36-year-old quarterback to regain his bearings after returning from an injury that ended his 2023 season early. That, along with inconsistent play, has led to Atlanta’s .500 record and a thin grasp on the playoffs.

On the other hand, his former team already has ten wins. Minnesota had 10+ wins with Cousins behind center just twice in five seasons. The offense, with Sam Darnold at quarterback, hasn’t missed a beat.

Trends

Minnesota leads the all-time series vs. Atlanta 21-12.
The Vikings are 14-9 at home since Kevin O’Connell has been the head coach (2022) and 10-4 when the favorite.
Atlanta has gone 6-15 on the road since 2022 and 3-10 when the underdog.
The Falcons beat the Vikings the last time they played in Minneapolis (Oct. 18, 2020) 40-23.

The Bottom Line

While ‘Cousins wins in return to Minneapolis’ makes for a better headline and story than ‘Vikings get a big win over former QB and his new team,’ that scenario is unlikely to play out. Cousins and the Falcons’ offense have been erratic this season. They will have a hard time getting on track against a good Vikings defense.

Sam Darnold and the Vikings should easily win. That is, as long as they can limit the mistakes and bring their ‘A’ game (B game may be sufficient).

Our Pick: Vikings -6 (-110)

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