NFL Week 14 Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

by Matt Barbato |
Dec 09, 2022

Each week, I'll provide my favorite Sunday parlay and my favorite same-game parlay options for each game. So without further ado, here are this week's parlay picks.

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Week 14 Moneyline Parlay

Jacksonville Jaguars +170
Los Angeles Chargers +143
Odds: +556

We’re rolling with two underdogs on the moneyline this week. The Jaguars are always a frustrating team to bet on, but they match up well defensively against the Titans, who operate through Derrick Henry. The Titans also don’t have the weapons on the outside to expose a Jags secondary that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA. On the bright side, Jacksonville is 13th against the run.

I also think the Chargers will pull the upset over the Dolphins. The way to beat Los Angeles is by running the ball and pressuring Justin Herbert, two things the Dolphins don’t specialize in. Miami’s offense is predicated on getting Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle open in space, and the Dolphins have an average pass rush. Justin Herbert should have time and will finally have his full set of weapons back, assuming Mike Williams is good to go. Miami’s pass defense ranks 23rd in DVOA.

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (-17.5) | Total 44

Texans team total under 13.5 points
Ezekiel Elliott anytime TD scorer
Tony Pollard anytime TD scorer
Dak Prescott under 237.5 passing yards
Odds: +923

Frankly, I’d have to get 20 to take the points with this horrendous Texans team, which is turning back to Davis Mills at QB. But laying this many points in the NFL is always risky business. So with this parlay, I’m finding alternative ways to back the Cowboys. Houston’s offense is an embarrassment and failed to muster any offensive points against the lackluster Browns defense last week. Good luck against the Cowboys. If you’d prefer to reduce the risk and just take one of the Cowboys backs to get in the end zone, that’s fine. But the Cowboys tend to spread the wealth, and against a terrible Texans run defense, I think there will be plenty to go around.

The reason I’m fading Prescott is simple. I don’t expect him and the Dallas passing game to be needed much after the first half. I suspect Dallas will try to jump out early, then pack it in. It wouldn’t stun me if Dak didn’t finish this game either, as the Cowboys get ready for a postseason push.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) | Total 46.5

Under 46.5 points
Joe Burrow over 0.5 interceptions
Nick Chubb anytime TD
Odds: +581

If there’s one team that’s given Joe Burrow fits in his young career, it’s Cleveland. The Browns have the pass rushers to exploit a Bengals offensive line that’s been better but has still surrendered 36 sacks this year. Burrow is 0-4 in his career against Cleveland and has thrown an interception in his last three starts against them. I expect more struggles Sunday in what should be a slugfest.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-10) | Total 43

Under 43
Mike White over 36.5 pass attempts
Stefon Diggs under 6.5 receptions
Odds: +522

Initially, I was surprised by how high this line is. But sometimes, the oddsmakers try to send you a message. This could be a Buffalo steamroll, especially with revenge on their minds against a Jets team that upset them a few weeks ago. I expect the Jets’ offense to struggle mightily in this rematch. I’m also assuming Buffalo gets out to a hot start on a long week of prep. That’ll force Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur to abandon the run (something he’s already prone to do), forcing White to soar over this attempts total. In the first meeting, Diggs had just five receptions for 93 yards. New York’s pass defense has proven to be elite, and I expect them to limit Diggs to fewer than seven grabs.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4) | Total 41.5

The prop menu for this game isn’t open right now, as we still don’t have definitive word on whether Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence will play. However, assuming he does, I’ll take the points with Houston and overs on Lawrence’s passing yards and Christian Kirk’s receiving yards. Tennessee’s defense ranks 23rd in pass defense DVOA.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2) | Total 52

Lions -2
Amon-Ra St. Brown over 83.5 receiving yards
Justin Jefferson over 92.5 receiving yards
Odds: +553

This is crazy. But the 5-7 Detroit Lions rank 13th in overall DVOA, while the 10-2 Vikings rank 20th. Granted, the Vikings deserve credit for winning games even if they aren’t supposed to. And I’m still not sold that laying points with the Lions is the place to plant the “Vikings are lucky” flag. But sometimes, you have to believe in the line movement. Neither of these teams defends the pass well, which should set up for monstrous days for both star receivers.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) | Total 36.5

Under 36.5
Kenny Pickett under 209.5 passing yards
Mark Andrews over 56.5 receiving yards
Odds: +499

When in doubt, take the underdog and the under in this matchup. However, I don’t see much value in taking just two points with the Ravens. So I’ll ride with the under in what should be a total slugfest. No Lamar Jackson reduces the offensive upside of the Baltimore offense, but we’ve seen Tyler Huntley be perfectly capable of holding down the fort. When Huntley drops back to pass, Andrews will be his first and perhaps only option. It won’t be pretty, but I think Andrews clears this prop. I’m also going to bet against the rookie Pickett thriving much against an improving Ravens defense that’ll surely devise ways to make life difficult for him.

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Denver Broncos | Total 44

Broncos +9.5
Patrick Mahomes under 273.5 passing yards
Jerick McKinnon over 15.5 rushing yards
Odds: +567

I’d prefer to get a +10 on this disastrous Denver team. However, the Broncos don’t really get blown out, thanks to a defense that ranks seventh in DVOA. The offense is still miserable and will ultimately be why they don’t pull the upset. But Mahomes has failed to clear this prop in three of his last five meetings with the Broncos, and Denver’s secondary is fourth in DVOA. The way to move the ball on Denver is via the ground. And while Isiah Pacheco is the obvious name, I suspect we’ll see McKinnon break a few decent-sized runs out of shotgun formations. Plus, McKinnon has cleared this prop in his last two games. If we can assume 6-to-8 carries, McKinnon shouldn’t have trouble clearing this prop.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) | Total 44.5

Over 44.5
D’Onta Foreman over rushing yards (prop not available as of writing)
Geno Smith over 274.5 passing yards

We’re still waiting on Foreman to be cleared to play, but all signs point to him suiting up. Even if Foreman can’t go, I’d take Chuba Hubbard’s over prop against a Seahawks defense that ranks 24th in run defense DVOA. The Seahawks feel like an over team the rest of the way, as they have a strong offense and a generous defense. Smith should be able to carve up a Panthers D that really struggles to cover and generate pressure.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) | Total 37.5

Under 37.5
Tom Brady under 1.5 passing TDs
Brock Purdy under 1.5 passing TDs
Odds: +356

It’s crazy to be taking an under in a game involving Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. But despite that star power, the defense is the strength of both of these teams. We’ve got two defenses that rank top 10 in DVOA and pass defense DVOA. And Todd Bowles’ blitz schemes could rattle Brock Purdy in his first career start.

Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers | Total 52.5

Chargers +3.5
Over 52.5
Austin Ekeler over 44.5 receiving yards
Justin Herbert over 288.5 passing yards
Odds: +1135

As I mentioned above, I think the Chargers match up well with this Dolphins’ defense that has just 29 sacks on the year. Herbert should have time and will thrive within a clean pocket. Ekeler is always involved in the passing game, but it’s worth noting that Miami has yielded the 10th-most receiving yards to opposing backs this year. Week 14 should end with a bang, as both of these offenses should be humming.

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