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NFL Week 15 Anytime TD Scorer Picks & Predictions (2024)

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Last week was a solid one on the Anytime Touchdown (ATD) front. I went 5-4 overall with one voided. Even better was that I went 3-1 on anytime touchdown bets of +200 or longer. The First Touchdown (FTD) market was not as kind, but it was still a profitable week overall. This week I am back with picks for all 12 of the games on the Week 15 Sunday slate, excluding Sunday Night Football.

As a reminder, I am tracking these using bet sizes of 0.4 units on anytime touchdown bets and 0.1 units on first touchdown bets. Whether you play one or all of them, use your discretion and adjust as you see fit. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify this week’s best bets.

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Best NFL Week 15 Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bets

All wagers are 0.5 units

NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets

Who will score a touchdown in this week's NFL Games? The Anytime TD market covers any player who carries or receives the ball into the end zone, not the quarterback who passes the ball. We compare anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify today's best bets. View Anytime Touchdown odds across sportsbooks here.

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

Rico Dowdle (RB – DAL)

The matchup between Dallas and Carolina features two of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Dallas has allowed 16 total touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. That is tied for the second-most in the league. Carolina is the only team to allow more (17). Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard is a solid anytime touchdown bet, but his best price is -175.

Instead, I am going to pivot to Cowboys back Rico Dowdle. Dowdle has averaged over 120 scrimmage yards on 22 touches over his last three games. He has just one touchdown in that span. But nine red-zone opportunities across that stretch suggest Dowdle could be in line for some positive touchdown regression. Given the matchup and Dowdle's recent usage (not to mention the discount in comparison to Hubbard), I like him to find the end zone on Sunday.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns

DeAndre Hopkins (WR – KC)

The Kansas City Chiefs have scored just two touchdowns against eight field goals over their last two games. Meanwhile, Cleveland quarterback Jameis Winston has thrown six touchdown passes across his previous two contests. However, I think the price on a DeAndre Hopkins touchdown is too good to pass up here.

Hopkins has three targets inside the 10-yard line in his last two games. No other Chief has more than one such opportunity in that span. Cleveland plays man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league. They have also allowed 17 total touchdowns to opposing wideouts, which is tied for fourth-most in the NFL. Hopkins leads Kansas City in target share versus man coverage and has scored four times in seven games since being traded to the team. The Chiefs will correct their red-zone woes at some point, and I expect Hopkins to benefit when they do so.

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

Nico Collins (WR – HOU)

The Miami Dolphins have been above-average at limiting wide receiver touchdowns this season. However, I think there are reasons to back Houston wideout Nico Collins this week. Miami ranks 30th in the NFL in Pro Football Focus' (PFF) coverage grade when playing zone coverage. They play zone on just over two-thirds of defensive snaps versus the pass. Collins ranks sixth in the league in receiving yards versus zone coverage despite playing in only eight games this season.

Collins also has unique home versus road splits, which is something we do not often expect in football. The Texans wideout has scored in all four Houston home games this season while failing to score in all four road games. This is a continuation of a trend we saw last season, as Collins scored eight of his nine touchdowns at home. I like Collins to keep these trends going in Week 15.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans

Chase Brown (RB – CIN)

May I interest you in an anytime touchdown/first touchdown bet on a player who has scored in eight of his last 10 games? How about if that player is facing a team that has allowed 16 touchdowns (tied for second-most in the NFL) versus his position? Well, such a player exists, and his pricing is relatively friendly given the information above.

He plays for the Bengals, and his name is Chase. But I am not talking about Ja'Marr Chase. No, I am referring to running back Chase Brown. Brown is a versatile back who can score as both a rusher and receiver. He has run for six scores in his last 10 games, while also catching three touchdown passes. That should play well versus the Titans, who are last in the NFL, having given up six receiving touchdowns to enemy backs this year.

Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS)

Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. has dealt with some bumps and bruises over the past several weeks. But with Washington coming off the bye, he should be physically strong heading into a Week 15 matchup with the New Orleans Saints. That should bode well for his touchdown prospects. The Saints rank 31st in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) versus the run and have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs this year.

Robinson has scored in seven out of 10 games this season, including five out of seven games in which Washington has won. Given this information, the pricing is solid on his touchdown props. The Commanders are also 7.5-point favorites. Even if Robinson does not score the first touchdown of the day, a positive game script could lead to a rushing score later in the ball game.

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars

Davante Adams (WR – NYJ)

This meeting between two 3-10 teams features the lowest implied total on the Week 15 board. Both teams are slightly below average offensively, while Jacksonville is last in the NFL in defensive DVOA. Their main deficiency lies in man coverage. The Jaguars play man at the fourth-highest rate but rank in the bottom three in completion rate and yards per coverage snap while playing man coverage.

While Aaron Rodgers has looked like a shell of his former self this season, he leads the NFL in go balls. Rodgers can identify mismatches and has two receivers who can get the better of Jacksonville's shaky secondary. Davante Adams (69 targets, three touchdowns) has been the slightly better bet than Garrett Wilson (61 targets, two touchdowns) since the club acquired the former Packer and Raider. I lean in that direction as well, though I am not opposed to a bet on Wilson.

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants

Nelson Agholor (WR – BAL)

Let's get weird. This game sets up as a mismatch of epic proportions. Derrick Henry's best anytime touchdown price is -275. That is way too rich for my blood. I think the smarter bet is to back the Baltimore passing offense. New York ranks 26th in the NFL in coverage grade when playing man coverage. Nelson Agholor has two receiving touchdowns this year. Both have come in the last six games, both have been against man coverage, and both have been Baltimore's first touchdown of the game.

Agholor played on 56% of the snaps last week, and I would expect that rate to hold with Diontae Johnson suspended. Sure, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman are probably safer bets. But what fun is that? Live a little. Throw a buck or two on Nelson Agholor this week. Consider it a charitable contribution in the holiday spirit if it loses.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)

Even in a difficult matchup, the sportsbooks are not giving us a discount on Saquon Barkley. His best price for an anytime touchdown is -175. If you want to play that, I will not talk anyone out of it. Maybe I'll put some of my Nelson Agholor winnings on it. In the meantime, I will go with Jalen Hurts instead.

Sure, Hurts has been fortunate to vulture some touchdowns from Barkley. But who can say that does not continue this week? Hurts has 13 rushing touchdowns this year. That is more than Barkley, and every other player in the NFL not named Derrick Henry or Ja'Marr Chase. Considering this is close to an even-money bet, I will keep riding the Jalen Hurts wave in Week 15.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Anthony Richardson (QB – IND)

I almost went with Bo Nix here. But the rookie signal-caller has been much more hesitant to run in recent weeks as he has become more comfortable as a pocket passer. On the other side of the ball, the Indianapolis Colts have leaned into the rushing ability of Anthony Richardson since re-inserting him as the team's starting quarterback. Richardson has carried the ball 29 times and rushed for three touchdowns in three games.

All three scores have come from inside the 5-yard line while running back Jonathan Taylor has failed to score on all three of his carries from inside the 5-yard line. Denver ranks second in the NFL in pressure rate. This could also increase the chances of Richardson scrambling for a score, as he is not the most refined passer. Richardson feels like a solid value at this price.

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions

Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)

The game between the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions is among the most anticipated of the 2024 season. It is a potential Super Bowl preview and has plenty of anytime touchdown and first touchdown candidates. You could choose several players in this matchup, and I would not fight you on it. I am going with Amon-Ra St. Brown.

The Lions’ top wideout has hit a drought lately, failing to score in three straight. But he had scored in eight straight before this recent stretch. He also should be able to capitalize on this matchup. St. Brown is one of the best zone-beaters in the NFL. Buffalo plays zone at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. They are generally successful in doing so. However, they rank 27th in DVOA versus opposing No. 1 wideouts. All of these factors have me backing St. Brown this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers

Stone Smartt (TE – LAC)

Let's get weird, Part Two. Except I don't think these anytime touchdown and first touchdown bets are very weird at all. Chargers starting tight end Will Dissly left last week's game at halftime with a shoulder injury. In his stead, Stone Smartt caught all three second-half targets for 54 yards. Los Angeles has already ruled Dissly out for Week 15. That means Smartt is in a prime position to produce in a favorable matchup.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank 27th in the NFL in DVOA versus opposing tight ends. They have ceded the second-most receiving yards to the position, as well as five receiving touchdowns. Only seven teams have allowed more touchdowns to tight ends this season. I think this should be closer to a +250 or +300 price than +430, so I am willing to take a second longshot this week.

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals

James Conner (RB – ARI)

You may wonder why I am willing to take James Conner at -175 when I was unwilling to do so for Chuba Hubbard and Saquon Barkley. For me, it comes down to comparable options in each game. I think Rico Dowdle and Jalen Hurts are likely to score in their respective games. In this game, however, I did not like any of the other candidates involved.

Arizona is a 6-point favorite, so it makes the most sense to back the Cardinals here. Trey McBride is quickly approaching Diontae Johnson's NFL record for most catches in a season without a touchdown. Marvin Harrison Jr. has been inconsistent and is likely to draw Christian Gonzalez in coverage. Thus, I am picking James Conner against a Patriots defense ranked 28th in DVOA versus the run and that has allowed 14 total touchdowns to opposing running backs.

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