Navigate

NFL Week 15 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Futures Bets (2023)

by |

I’m doing something a little different with this week’s future bets; instead of giving an array of angles on various teams or players from different markets, I’m solely focusing on one team in this article and I’ll lay out a variety of ways to play them in the futures market. That team is the Buffalo Bills, who have a newfound sense of life after a 2-4 midseason stretch nearly doomed their postseason chances. Though they don’t quite control their own destiny, the litany of injuries at QB in the AFC combined with some helpful results in recent weeks has really opened the door up for them to make the playoffs if they take care of business down the stretch. In the remainder of the article, I’ll outline different ways to jump on Bills futures at different prices via different angles down the stretch. It’s a choose your own adventure of sorts, but all of these plays are correlated and can be played together as a sort of ladder, or played individually if you would like. Note that there is some projecting and some “ifs” that need to take place for some of these futures to cash, but that’s the beauty of future bets and why they can provide such great value.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value, & Star Rating >>

NFL Week 14: Best Futures Bets

Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs (+100 @ DraftKings)

The AFC playoff picture has become quite the mess in recent weeks, as the Bills are currently tied at 7-6 with 5 other teams for the 6th and 7th seeds in the conference. They also trail Jacksonville, Kansas City and Cleveland by only one game, which could factor in down the stretch as absolutely nothing has been decided yet. Regarding the teams that they’re tied with – Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Cincinnati are all currently starting backup QBs and Houston could be added to that list this week if CJ Stroud is unable to go. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have considerably harder remaining strength of schedules by opponent’s winning percentage and the Colts, Texans, Steelers and Bengals all play each other in a convoluted round robin of matchups in the remaining 4 weeks, so some of those teams are guaranteed to pick up at least one loss. While Buffalo still has tough games left against Dallas and Miami, Vegas sees the Bills as a favorite over the Cowboys this week and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them favored on the road against the Dolphins if they pick up 3 wins before Week 18. Like I said, the AFC playoff picture is an insane mess at the moment, but I’ll back the Bills and their 3rd ranked offense in terms of DVOA (6th in DVOA overall) to prevail and make the playoffs over the wasteland of backup QBs that are vying for the same spots, especially at plus money.

Josh Allen to win NFL MVP (+2000 @ DraftKings)

If the Bills are to play their way into the 2023 playoffs, it absolutely can’t be accomplished without stellar play from Josh Allen. It also means that the Bills likely defeated both the Cowboys and Dolphins down the stretch, which would go a long way toward vaulting him over guys like Dak and Tua in the MVP discussion. Allen currently trails Dak by 3 passing TDs for the league lead, but he actually ranks #1 in the NFL in terms of total TDs with 35 (4 more than the 2nd-place Hurts) and is the overall #1 QB in terms of fantasy football, really just driving home the notion that he’s doing everything for the Bills, both with his arm and his legs. The MVP award is typically regarded as the “best player on the best team” award, but this year has been odd in the fact that there are no statistically anomalous QBs on the top teams of the conference, we’ve seen multiple QBs with MVP potential lose their season to injury, and the usual suspects like Patrick Mahomes are having statistically regressed seasons compared to years past. If Josh Allen leads this Bills team that most assumed was dead at midseason to the playoffs, collecting wins against the Cowboys and Dolphins in the process, we’ll see him as one of the favorites for the award when the season comes to a close.

Buffalo Bills to win the AFC East (+310 @ FanDuel)

This one is a little bit trickier than the previous bet of the Bills just to make the playoffs and the odds obviously reflect as such, but I think there’s a real possibility that the Bills can make up 2 games in the final 4 weeks to pass Miami for the top spot in the division. One of those two games can be made up extremely easily with a Buffalo win at Miami in Week 18, which would give Buffalo the season sweep and head-to-head advantage in the case of a tie due to their 48-20 drubbing of the Fins at home in Week 4. That leaves 3 remaining games for each team – Dallas, @ Chargers, Patriots for the Bills and Jets, Cowboys, @ Ravens for the Dolphins. I think it’s a highly likely probability that Buffalo picks up one more win than Miami during that stretch, especially because the Dolphins have lost to every single opponent they’ve played that was above 0.500 at the time and Tyreek may be banged up down the stretch after missing a large chunk of MNF with a leg injury. If this future hits, it gives even more leverage to the Josh Allen MVP play and locks in the play to make the playoffs, and I see a real chance of it happening with the Bills surging while the Dolphins may be regressing.

Buffalo Bills to win the AFC (+1000 @ FanDuel) and/or to win the Super Bowl (+1800 @ FanDuel)

This play (or combination of plays, if you fancy both) sets you up with great value on the Bills to win the conference or Super Bowl if they make the playoffs, as these odds will obviously plummet if the Bills surge in the final 4 weeks to either overtake the Dolphins for the division or sneak into the Wild Card. If they win the division, they’re almost certainly either looking at an opening round matchup at home against a team with a backup QB or a third matchup with the same Dolphins team that they just beat at home. If they make it as a Wild Card team the route will obviously be tougher, but they just showcased the ability to beat Kansas City on their home turf, so I wouldn’t count them out in a road matchup against anyone. These plays also set you up with potential hedge opportunities in the later rounds of the playoffs, which will play out beautifully if the Bills secure a home game or two and are favored in those later rounds. Again, this team ranks 6th in overall DVOA with an offense that scores the 4th most points per possession and a defense that ranks just outside the top-10 in points allowed per possession, and you’re not going to find this kind of value anywhere for that caliber of team once the playoffs start.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts