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NFL Week 15 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2023)

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Last week, the Minnesota Vikings and Las Vegas Raiders combined for three points, easily cashing our under 28.5 longshot bet. This week, every team is in action, with games being played on four different days.

Here are the best longshot bets of Week 15 of the NFL season.

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Best NFL Week 15 Longshot Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Matthew Stafford 4+ Touchdown Passes (+700)

The Washington Commanders have given up 45 points in back-to-back games. Those two performances came against the two highest-scoring teams in the NFL, but that doesn’t excuse just how bad this defense is playing.

After throwing two or fewer touchdown passes in each of his first nine games, Stafford has thrown three or more in his last three. Three weeks ago, he threw four touchdown passes against the Arizona Cardinals. 

The Commanders are allowing the most points per game this season, and ever since trading Montez Sweat and Chase Young, they’ve been unable to stop anyone. Stafford is hot right now, and he’s going to pick apart a defense that may give up 40 points again this week.

Detroit Lions Over 34.5 Points (+380)

Over the last four weeks, the Lions have proven that they’re not as good as their record suggests. They were blown out by the Chicago Bears last week after they should have lost to them four weeks ago. They looked terrible in their home loss against the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving, and they barely held on against the New Orleans Saints two weeks ago.

The Broncos have won six of their last seven games, and it seems that everything is pointing towards them upsetting the Lions this week. And perhaps they will. But if they’re going to, they’re going to have to score at least 36 points to do it.

The Lions haven’t scored 35 points in a game since Week 10, but they’ve scored more than 30 in two of their last four. Perhaps the Broncos defense is as good as their recent numbers indicate. However, they’ve played a lot of struggling offenses in recent weeks. The Lions’ offense isn’t playing particularly well, but they are the most balanced team the Broncos have faced in weeks. That’s going to prove problematic as the Lions run up the score at home.

Josh Allen 2+ Interceptions (+320)

The price for this long shot isn’t crazy, but this is a bet that should be made this week. Allen has thrown at least one interception in his last nine games. Though he’s only thrown two or more in two games this season, that’s the same amount of times he’s thrown zero picks.

Allen is essentially guaranteed one interception per game. This week, he faces a Cowboys defense that is forcing one interception per contest. Though the Cowboys are due for a letdown after beating the Philadelphia Eagles last week, they’re still playing like the best team in the league right now.

Dak Prescott and the offense will score enough to keep Allen throwing. And when Allen throws the ball at least 40 times, as he’s done in his last two games, two of those passes will end up in the hands of a Cowboys defender.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.