NFL Week 15 Picks Against the Spread (2018)

There were plenty of upsets last weekend, and as you will see soon, I am predicting a few more in Week 15. This week also brings something pretty exciting: NFL Saturday! That’s right, as college teams are prepping for their bowl games and pretending to study for finals, the NFL will fill the void of football on Saturdays. Week 15 also brings a multitude of game-altering injury news. Keep one eye on the news and another on how these lines move, but first let’s make our Week 15 NFL picks against the spread.

Thursday Night Football

Chargers at Chiefs (-3.5)
Weather: 37 degrees, 14% chance of rain

This highly-anticipated matchup features both a division rivalry and two of the top AFC teams. Unfortunately, these squads won’t be up to full health. Kansas City looks to be without both Spencer Ware and Sammy Watkins, while Tyreek Hill looks to be more of a game-time decision. The Chargers look to be without Austin Ekeler, then Melvin Gordon is a game-time decision after missing the past two games. So, we could be seeing two of the best offenses in the league rolling out their third-string running backs. Defensively, the Chiefs are a mess giving up the third-most yards per game and fifth-most points. There is a slight chance we see veteran Eric Berry make his season debut on Thursday, though it doesn’t make sense given the team’s standings. The Chargers got Joey Bosa, one their defensive leaders, back a month ago. After not recording a sack in his debut, he has gone three-straight games with at least one sack, and his presence has been felt. This is a tricky one with all of the injuries, but it feels like the Chargers are more composed right now.

Pick: Chargers +3.5 (Low Confidence), LAC 30 — KC 27

Saturday Games

Texans at Jets (-6)
Weather: 48 degrees, 33% chance of rain

The Texans are coming off their first loss since September, but they look ready to add another to the win column. The defense continues to play well, which could be bad news for rookie Sam Darnold who has been underwhelming since his Week 1 performance. Defensively, the Jets have also struggled, especially against the run. If you let this Texans team pick up first downs on the ground there’s no way you can stop them. Once Deshaun Watson is able to set up his play action there simply is too much he can do with the weapons around him and his legs. The Jets will get back to their losing ways this week.

Pick: Texans -6 (Medium Confidence), HOU 24 — NYJ 17

Browns at Broncos (-3)
Weather: 47 degrees, no chance of rain

Baker Mayfield is feeling dangerous, while the Broncos are limping down the stretch. Home field advantage is huge in Denver. When they’re home, they have a legitimate chance to beat anyone on the field with them. But even with that, they are 3-3 in Denver this season. The Browns are just 1-5 on the road this season, but that’s because they have played just two road games without Hue Jackson. One was a loss to the Texans, and the other was a win over Hue Jackson and the Bengals. Cleveland has won three out of their past four games, and during this span, Baker Mayfield has averaged 277.25 passing yards on 74.8% passing with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. All of the interceptions were against Houston. Baker and the rest of this offense has been so much better lately, and I think they can keep it going in Denver.

Pick: Browns +3 (Low Confidence), CLE 27 — DEN 21

Sunday, Early Games

Titans at Giants (-2.5)
Weather: 42 degrees, 37% chance of rain

Odell Beckham is not practicing yet, but he supposedly is improving. We’ll call him questionable for this game, but last week the Giants proved that they don’t need him. There’s no doubt the Giants are playing better football during the second half of the season. The Titans have played better the past two weeks too after crushing the Jags on Thursday night. However, they are still just 2-5 away from home, which is not up to the standards of a playoff spot, which they are still in the running for. But since they have had a few extra days to prepare this week, I think they pull off the win. I am also guessing Odell sits another week.

Pick: Titans +2.5 (Low Confidence), TEN 24 — NYG 20

Buccaneers at Ravens (-8)
Weather: 44 degrees, 21% chance of rain

Joe Flacco should be back on the sideline this week, but the Ravens have said they will stick with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. With this news alone, the defense for the Ravens will have to play really well to cover this spread. Jackson simply is not ready, or not a talented quarterback, whichever side of the argument you are on. Tampa is not a great team, but they gave the Saints another scare last week. The offense is good enough to at least score against Baltimore, so I think this game will come down to mistakes at the quarterback position. Both Jackson and Winston are prone to mistakes, and it may only take one to decide this game. I’ll give the Ravens the win but not cover this spread.

Pick: Bucs +8 (Low Confidence), TB 20 — BAL 24

Packers at Bears (-6)
Weather: 40 degrees, no chance of rain

Mike McCarthy was fired and this team responded by putting up the most points they had all season. The Bears faced Todd Gurley and the Rams, and they completely shut the offense down and easily got the win despite Trubisky looking bad. While this seems like an easy game to pick, don’t be too sure. We all know about the baaaaad man that is Aaron Rodgers, but I think the city of Chicago knows just how “bad” he can be. We remember the comeback he led against the Bears in Week 1, but this terrific play is not out of the ordinary. Rodgers is 16-4 against the Bears in his career and has passed for 45 touchdowns to just nine interceptions. For whatever reason, Rodgers plays his best football against Chicago. Something in my gut tells me the score will at least be closer than the spread.

Pick: Packers +6 (Low Confidence), GB 24 — CHI 27

Lions at Bills (-2.5)
Weather: 38 degrees, 6% chance of rain

The Lions — dumpster fire. At this point, they might as well sit Matthew Stafford for the rest of the season. He doesn’t look any good without Golden Tate and Marvin Jones, and if he’s in Detroit’s future plans these hits he’s taking could be costly. More are likely to come this week since Buffalo is pretty solid at getting to the quarterback. The defense as a whole is pretty decent, and the Bills rushing attack is moving the chains. However, they look to be without LeSean McCoy this week. While it is a big loss, they should control the clock enough to get the win over Detroit.

Pick: Bills -2.5 (Medium Confidence), DET 17 — BUF 20

Dolphins at Vikings (-7)
Weather: Dome

The Vikings have fired their offensive coordinator, fans listed U.S. Bank Stadium on Craigslist, and the playoff hopes for one of the preseason favorites is slipping away. However, this is a perfect scenario to get back on track. We can assume part of DeFilippo’s firing is because he wouldn’t commit to the running game like Mike Zimmer so desperately wants to do. We can assume more of a commitment to the run early in this game, which will likely work since the Dolphins struggle with run defense. Zimmer will feel like a genius, the defense will be rested and play well against Ryan Tannehill, and the Vikings will stay alive in the NFC.

Pick: Vikings -7 (Medium Confidence), MIA 17 — MIN 27

Raiders at Bengals (-3)
Weather: 44 degrees, no chance of rain

The Raiders pulled off the unlikely upset over the Steelers last week, while the Bengals have lost five in a row. Say it with me– the Hue Jackson effect! Jordy Nelson is trying to ride off into the sunset with some success, Jared Cook continues to be featured, and the running game is even moving the ball some. For the Bengals, they have Joe Mixon and that’s about it. Tyler Boyd is a talented receiver but not talented enough to be a top option. The Raiders will be able to move ball against this poor defense and ultimately cover the spread.

Pick: Raiders +3 (Medium Confidence), OAK 24 — CIN 20

Cardinals at Falcons (-9)
Weather: Dome

The Falcons went into Green Bay and got their butts kicked last week despite Julio showing early that nobody on the field could cover him. As with most Falcons games, they moved away from what was working quickly. The Cardinals lost an ugly one in Detroit after putting up just three points. The offense has been bad this season. Larry Fitzgerald isn’t himself, David Johnson is not getting the ball in any creative ways, and Josh Rosen is proving there is a learning curve. Rookie receiver Christian Kirk gave this offense a spark for a little bit, but he has since been put on IR. The Falcons are better at home and this offense should be able to do a little more against Arizona. I think they will cover this spread.

Pick: Falcons -9 (Medium Confidence), ARI 17 — ATL 27

Cowboys at Colts (-3)
Weather: Dome

The Cowboys are on a roll, winning five in a row. Amari Cooper looks focused and is showcasing his talent. The Colts are coming off a solid win against the Texans and are 4-2 at home, but I am still surprised to see them favored by three here. Zach Martin is questionable for the Cowboys, which would be a big hole on the offensive line, but the same can be said for center Ryan Kelly,who is questionable for the Colts. This game comes down to forcing stops. I think this Dallas defense is good enough to force stops against Andrew Luck. I’m not so sure the Colts can force any stops, but Dak Prescott could make some terrible plays. I will bet on defense and bet the Cowboys take another win to solidify their playoff spot.

Pick: Cowboys +3 (Medium Confidence), DAL 24 — IND 23

Redskins at Jaguars (-7)
Weather: 60 degrees, no chance of rain

Washington has been a complete mess after losing Alex Smith for the season. Surprise, Mark Sanchez didn’t work out. Top AAF draft pick, Josh Johnson, came in last week and looked better, at least by comparison. It will be tough sledding against the Jaguars defense this week, though. It also looks like he may be without Jordan Reed, who exited last game. However, the Jaguars offense doesn’t look much better. Cody Kessler hasn’t been the answer at quarterback, but they can’t exactly go back to Bortles after the comments they made. Leonard Fournette is still a tough runner and will move the pile, but this offensive line has too many holes and there isn’t much talent all around. I think Jacksonville has a good chance to pull a win out, but I think it will be closer than seven, especially when the over/under is just 36.

Pick: Redskins +7 (Low Confidence), WAS 17 — JAC 20

Sunday, Late Games

Seahawks at 49ers (+4.5)
Weather: 58 degrees,  45% chance of rain

The Seahawks pulled off a hard-fought win over the Vikings on Monday Night Football while the 49ers are coming off a win against a depleted Broncos squad. Last time these two rivals met, it was a 43-16 rolling of the Seahawks over the Niners. Seattle averaged 5.8 yards per carry, and Russell Wilson needed just 17 pass attempts to find the end zone four times. San Fran just doesn’t have enough to slow down what this Seattle team is accomplishing.

Pick: Seahawks -4.5 (Medium Confidence), SEA 24 — SF 17

Patriots at Steelers (+1.5)
Weather: 43 degrees, 15% chance of rain

Big Ben left the last game after injuring his rib, but he was healthy enough to return which is a good sign for his Week 15 availability. James Conner, on the other hand, seems like a longshot to play, though Mike Tomlin has not ruled him out yet. The Steelers, of course, are coming off three-straight losses, including a rough one to Oakland last week. The Patriots are coming off a loss of their own after witnessing a miracle down in Miami. It’s never easy playing the Patriots in December. It’s even tougher when they are coming off of a loss, and it’s the toughest when there are some key offensive injuries for the Steelers.

Pick: Patriots -1.5 (Medium Confidence), NE 27 — PIT 22

Sunday Night Football

Eagles at Rams (-9)
Weather: 62 degrees, 2% chance of rain

Carson Wentz is not expected to play this week, and he may actually sit for the rest of the season. The Rams really need to keep winning to claim home-field advantage. Without Wentz, this creates another weak spot for this team, and the Rams will love to bring the pressure against Nick Foles on Sunday night. I expect a big bounce-back performance from Jared Goff against this Philly secondary.

Pick: Rams -9 (Medium Confidence), PHI 20 — LAR 34

Monday Night Football

Saints at Panthers (+6.5)
Weather: 44 degrees, 3% chance of rain

The Panthers are losers of five straight and another one on Monday could knock them out of the playoff race. The Saints have clinched the division, but they are still competing for home-field advantage and simply need to get their offense back on track. This could be unfortunate for the Panthers, because if the Saints offense is clicking they may keep the foot on the gas pedal to work all of the kinks out for the final games of the season. The Panthers are undoubtedly better at home, where they have a 5-1 record on the season. This will also be the first meeting of the division rivals, with their second game coming in Week 17. Great scheduling, right? Even though four of the past five games have been on the road, there is no excuse for the Panthers to lose to the Lions, Bucs and Browns. They have given up yards and points to all of these teams too, and if this same level of play shows up on Monday it will be another blowout from Drew Brees in prime time.

Pick: Saints -6.5 (Medium Confidence), NO 31 — CAR 24

Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.