NFL Week 15 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2022)
It’s great to have all the usual player-props enthusiasts here today, but I’d also like to welcome in the curious player-props dabblers looking for action after failing to qualify for the fantasy football playoffs.
Hello, new friends. Rest assured that betting player props gives you nearly the same levels of stress and angst that you experience while fretting over your fantasy team(s). Welcome to your new milieu.
Before we get to the Week 15 slate, a quick recap of Week 14 …
The wins: Josh Allen under 256.5 passing yards, Saquon Barkley under 71.5 rushing yards, Garrett Wilson over 61.5 receiving yards, Greg Dulcich over 39.5 receiving yards.
The losses: Joe Burrow over 278.5 passing yards, Deshaun Watson under 225.5 passing yards.
Here are my favorite selections for Week 15 …
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Last week: 4-2
Season record: 58-39
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday afternoon.
Matt Ryan UNDER 254.5 passing yards
Since being reinstated as the Colts’ starting quarterback in Week 10, Ryan has failed to clear this number in 4-of-4 games, and he’s fallen more than 20 yards short of it each time. Ryan is averaging 216.8 passing yards over the last four weeks. Yes, the Vikings’ pass defense is horrendous. Minnesota is giving up a league-high 287.2 passing yards per game. But as bad as the Vikings’ pass coverage has been, I’m happy to bet against the 37-year-old, well-past-prime Ryan putting up big numbers this weekend in Minnesota. The Colts aren’t going to abandon the running game. RB Jonathan Taylor has logged 20 or more rushing attempts in four straight games. Bet against a big day for Ryan.
Josh Allen OVER 1.5 touchdown passes
I’m fading Josh Allen skepticism and fading concerns about weather. Allen has thrown multiple TD passes in 8-of-13 games this season. He’s trending in the wrong direction, however, having thrown one or zero TD passes in four of his last six. Allen will be facing a Miami defense that he torched for 400 passing yards and two touchdowns back in Week 3. As of Thursday afternoon, DraftKings was offering a generous -105 on the over, and it’s possible you’ll be able to get an even better deal on gameday, after people see camera shots of the snow flying in Buffalo. The forecast calls for Buffalo to get snow Saturday night, but it’s not going to be a blizzard, and the winds are expected to be 10-15 mph — far below the threshold of concern. Also — this just in — Josh Allen is good at football. If this line reflects concern about the status of Josh Allen’s right elbow, that’s fine. Allen recently said on “The Pat McAfee Show†that doctors initially told him the injury could keep him out 2-4 weeks. Allen sustained the injury six weeks ago and has been playing through it. And if the injury is still affecting Allen’s accuracy or velocity, I haven’t noticed it while watching recent Bills games.
Kareem Hunt UNDER 24.5 rushing yards
Hunt has failed to clear this number in five of his last eight games. He’s averaged just 6.1 carries a game over that stretch, and he hasn’t had double-digit carries in a game since Week 8. The Browns are up against a Ravens defense that has faced the third-fewest RB rushing attempts and has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to RBs. In the Week 7 game between the Browns and Ravens, Hunt had four rushing yards on five carries.
Miles Sanders OVER 69.5 rushing yards
Sanders had topped this number in 8-of-13 games this season, and he’s averaging 82.2 rushing yards a game. The Eagles’ running game is humming. Sanders has run for more than 140 yards in two of his last three games. He’ll be up against a Bears run defense that ranks 28th in DVOA since Week 11. Chicago gave up 125 rushing yards to Packers RBs in Week 13, 153 rushing yards to Jets RBs in Week 12, and 111 rushing yards to Falcons RBs in Week 11. Our internal power rankings have the Eagles’ offensive line ranked No. 1 and the Bears’ defensive front ranked No. 32. Expect Sanders to take advantage of this epic mismatch.
David Montgomery OVER 77.5 rushing + receiving yards
The Bears’ No. 2 running back, Khalil Herbert, has missed three games with a hip injury and will be out again on Sunday. In the three games Herbert has missed, Montgomery has averaged 19.3 opportunities (carries + targets) and 100.3 yards from scrimmage. The Bears have been the NFL’s run-heaviest team this season, and they certainly aren’t going to abandon the run against the Eagles, whose pass defense is among the best in the league. I think Monty could top this number with rushing yardage alone, but we also get to include his receiving yardage. Over his last three games, Montgomery has been targeted 14 times and has 10 catches for 94 yards.
Mike Gesicki UNDER 17.5 receiving yards
Over his last five games, Gesicki has five catches for 34 yards on nine targets. He hasn’t caught a single pass since Week 10 — a three-game catch-less streak, Gesicki’s snap shares the last two weeks: 20% and 39%. Gesicki will be facing a Bills defense that has allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends and is giving up 8.0 yards per catch and 5.3 yards per target to TEs.
Olamide Zaccheaus UNDER 31.5 receiving yards
Zaccheaus has finished below this number in five of his last seven games. Through the first 11 weeks of the season Zaccheaus didn’t see more than four targets in any game. He’s been targeted 13 times over his last two games, but he still failed to hit this number in one of those games. The Falcons have been extremely conservative on offense, having run the ball on 56% of their offensive snaps this year. With rookie QB Desmond Ridder making his first NFL start for the Falcons, I’m inclined to bet all unders on Atlanta passing or receiving yardage.
Justin Jefferson OVER 93.5 receiving yards
Jefferson has entered the Cooper Kupp zone for me. Last year, I bet the overs on Cooper Kupp yardage props throughout the season and kept hitting them. Kupp was so wildly productive that even though the yardage totals continued to climb week after week, they still weren’t high enough. Jefferson is averaging 115.4 receiving yards per game this season. He’s cleared this number in 9-of-13 games. Jefferson is averaging 10.9 targets for the year and 11.6 targets over his last five games. He has 27 receptions over his last three games. Never mind that the Vikings are facing the Colts, who have allowed the fewest receiving yards to WRs this season. Jefferson is basically matchup-proof at this point.
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