NFL Week 15 Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2024)
For the first time this season, we're betting two different props on a single player.
Intrigued? Read on.
But before we get to this week’s selections, a recap of Week 14 ...
The wins: Kareem Hunt under 33.5 rushing yards, Nick Chubb over 38.5 receiving yards, Jerry Jeudy under 69.5 receiving yards
The losses: Aaron Rodgers under 225.5 passing yards, Tyrone Tracy over 60.5 rushing yards, A.J. Brown over 77.5 receiving yards, Grant Calcaterra over 21.5 receiving yards, Brock Bowers over 71.5 receiving yards
Last week: 3-5
Season record: 71-72
NFL Week 15 Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday, Dec. 12.
Jameis Winston OVER 234.5 passing yards
This number seems awfully low for a quarterback who's been slinging it as aggressively as Winston has been since replacing the injured Deshaun Watson.
In six starts for the Browns, Winston has averaged 43.2 pass attempts, with at least 41 pass attempts in all but one of those games. He's averaging 315.3 passing yards per start, although he's only cleared this number in 3-of-6 starts.
The matchup against the Chiefs looks daunting on paper, but I think it points to a big yardage day for Winston. It's extremely hard to run on the Chiefs, so it's easy to see Winston airing it out 40-plus times. Opponents are passing against the Chiefs on 59.9% of their offensive snaps — the seventh-highest rate in the league. The Chiefs' pass defense ranks a modest 17th in DVOA, and the Kansas City pass rush has fallen off lately.
One mild concern for Winston: He could be without TE David Njoku, a key weapon in the Cleveland passing game.
I think Winston clears this number with ease.
Russell Wilson UNDER 192.5 passing yards
Steelers WR George Pickens will miss a second consecutive game with a hamstring injury. Pickens is the only credible playmaker among Pittsburgh's pass catchers, and without him, the Steelers' passing game is (ahem) hamstrung.
With Pickens out of action last week, Russell Wilson completed 15-of-26 passes against the Browns for 158 yards. This week, Wilson faces a much more difficult matchup against the Eagles.
Philadelphia is giving up 199.5 passing yards per game. The Eagles are allowing a league-low 6.1 yards per pass attempt.
The Steelers are the second run-heaviest team in the league, running on 51.6% of their offensive snaps. Wilson has thrown fewer than 30 passes in five of his seven starts this season.
Expect an ultra-heavy conservative game plan from the Steelers, and don't expect Wilson to be particularly effective when he drops back to pass.
Derrick Henry OVER 104.5 rushing yards
The BettingPros app, which you should absolutely download if you haven't already, tells me that I am 4-0 betting on Derrick Henry props. Let's make it 5-0.
The Ravens are 16.5-point favorites against the hapless Giants, so the game script should be extremely run-friendly for Baltimore. And the Giants' run defense is a sieve. The G-men have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards and are yielding 4.9 yards per carry.
Henry has six 100-yard rushing games this season and has run for 100 yards in all five of the games where he's had at least 20 carries. I think Henry gets 20-plus carries this week and easily tops this number.
Tyrone Tracy UNDER 43.5 rushing yards
Tracy has been held to 45 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games. He had nine carries for 32 yards against Dallas in Week 13, then had 16 carries for 45 yards against New Orleans in Week 14. The Cowboys and Saints have two of the worst run defenses in the league.
Now, Tracy gets a nasty matchup against the Ravens. Baltimore's run defense ranks fifth in DVOA. The Ravens are giving up 64.4 rushing yards per game (second-fewest in the league) and 3.4 yards per carry to RBs.
Making Tracy's rushing outlook even bleaker is the state of the Giants' offensive line. Star left tackle Andrew Thomas is out for the year, tackle Jermaine Eluemunor has missed time with a quad injury, and guard Jon Runyan is expected to be out this week with an ankle injury.
The odds of Tracy topping this number seem remote.
De'Von Achane UNDER 47.5 rushing yards
Achane is a terrific player. He's been racking up touchdowns, and he's one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league. But the Miami running game is broken.
Achane has fallen short of this number in three straight games, averaging 23.3 rushing yards per game over that stretch. As a team, the Dolphins haven't produced 100 rushing yards in a game since Week 9.
Miami's offensive line is a big part of the problem. The Dolphins rank 28th in the adjusted line yards run-blocking metric. PFF grades Miami's offensive line 22nd in run blocking.
This week, Achane faces a well-rested Texans defense coming off a bye. Huston's run defense ranks No. 1 in DVOA and has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards to RBs. Bet the under.
D'Andre Swift UNDER 52.5 rushing yards
Swift has rushed for fewer than 40 yards in three consecutive games. He's averaged 2.8 yards per carry over that stretch.
It hasn't helped that Swift has kept encountering unfriendly game scripts during the Bears' seven-game losing streak. Well, expect another unfriendly game script this week with the Bears 6.5-point underdogs against the Vikings in Minnesota.
This is a rough matchup for Swift. The Vikings' run defense ranks No. 3 in DVOA. Minnesota has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards to RBs, and the Vikings' defense has been a pass funnel. Teams are throwing against the Vikings on a league-high 64.8% of their offensive snaps.
Expect a low-volume, low-yardage game for Swift.
Tyrone Tracy OVER 18.5 receiving yards
Yes, I'm playing two Tyrone Tracy props this week. As much trouble as I think Tracy will have running the ball against the Ravens, I think he'll go sailing past this number for receiving yardage.
Tracy has averaged 33 receiving yards over his last three games, with at least 28 receiving yards in every game during that stretch. He faces a Baltimore defense that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to RBs.
As good as Baltimore's run defense is, expect the Ravens to ramp up Tracy's usage as a pass catcher.
Ja'Marr Chase OVER 89.5 receiving yards
Yeah, this feels like a bandwagon bet after Chase’s 177-yard performance last week. But Cincinnati has been throwing at an insane rate.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow has averaged 44.0 pass attempts and 29.3 completions over his last six games. Chase's target counts over that stretch: 11, 11, 17, 13, 9, 18.
The Titans have allowed fewer receiving yards to wide receivers than any team in the league, which is a big reason why Chase's yardage prop is set this low. But opponents have run the ball against the Titans on 47.6% of their offensive snaps — the seventh-highest rate in the league. Don't expect the pass-happy Bengals to have a run-heavy gameplan against Tennessee.
Khalil Shakir OVER 57.5 receiving yards
Shakir has cleared this number in three of his last four games and in 7-of-12 games this season. A model of efficiency, Shakir has a catch rate of 80.2% this season and is averaging 9.1 yards per target.
Shakir has become more essential to the Buffalo offense as the season has gone on. He averaged 4.2 targets over the Bills' first five games. Shakir has averaged 8.6 targets and 69.4 receiving yards over his last seven games, with at least seven targets in each of those contests.
The Bills roll into Detroit this week for a potential shootout with the Lions. Slot receivers have given Detroit trouble this season. Lions slot corner Amik Robertson is graded 96th out of the 118 cornerbacks PFF has graded and is giving up 1.48 yards per route run into his coverage. The over looks juicy here.
Tucker Kraft OVER 32.5 receiving yards
Kraft has cleared this number in each of his last two games and in four of his last six. In the 10 games since Packers QB Love returned from an early-season knee injury, Kraft has averaged 44.4 receiving yards per contest.
Kraft has a favorable matchup this week against a Seattle defense that has allowed the eighth-most receptions and 10th-most receiving yards to tight ends. Take the over.
T.J. Hockenson OVER 42.5 receiving yards
This one is pretty straightforward. Hockenson faces the Bears this week in Minnesota. When the Vikings played the Bears in Chicago three weeks ago, Hockenson had seven catches for 114 yards.
Hockenson has been rounding into form since coming back from a major knee injury in early November. He's still one of the better pass-catching tight ends in the game, and this number is too low considering that the Bears have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season, and considering how badly Hockenson burned Chicago a few weeks ago.