NFL Week 15: Top Against the Spread, Over/Under and Moneyline Bets
The big story in the NFL this past week is that the Broncos might finally have an NFL-quality quarterback, for the first time since Peyton Manning retired in 2015. I’m not as ready as some to crown Drew Lock king, but he looked excellent against Houston in his second career start. Two games is a minuscule sample size, so it’s natural that Vegas isn’t giving much respect to a rookie in this third game this week. The Broncos are 11.5-point underdogs in Kansas City. KC’s defense isn’t that good, though, especially against the pass. If you think Lock is at all legit, the Broncos’ chances to cover that spread feel pretty good. DEN +11.5 lands as our number two ATS bet of the week, and my personal favorite.
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Top Against the Spread Bets
| Rank | Game | Bet | Expert Voting | Past Performance | System Plays | Bet Rating |
| 1 | LAR@DAL | LAR +3 | 86% | 54% | 77 | |
| 2 | DEN@KC | DEN +11.5 | 75% | 52% | 68 | |
| 3 | NE@CIN | NE -10 | 78% | 53% | 53% | 66 |
LA Rams +3 at Dallas
- Expert voting: 86%. This is extremely high for an ATS bet, and is our highest of the week.
- Past performance ratings: 54% for Los Angeles, 55% for facing Dallas, for a combined 54%.
- Bet rating: 77.
Denver +11.5 at Kansas City
- Expert voting: 75%.
- Past performance ratings: 48% for Denver, 55% for facing Kansas City, for a combined 52%.
- Bet rating: 68. It’s only been two games, but Drew Lock might be the answer to Broncos fans’ prayers. They probably won’t beat KC, but if Lock plays anything like he did last week, the Broncos should cover this huge spread.
New England -10 at Cincinnati
- Expert voting: 78%.
- Past performance ratings: 55% for New England, 52% for facing Cincinnati, for a combined 53%.
- System play: New England is on a 3-game against the spread losing streak. Historically, such teams cover in their next game at a 54% rate, with a p-value of .09, which gives an expected future success rate of 53%.
Top Over/Under Bets
| Rank | Game | Bet | Expert Voting | Past Performance | System Plays | Bet Rating |
| 1 | IND@NO | Over 45 | 83% | 54% | 75 | |
| 2 | SEA@CAR | Under 48.5 | 76% | 43% | 67 | |
| 3 | PHI@WAS | Under 47.5 | 71% | 58% | 54% | 63 |
| 4 | NYJ@BAL | Under 44.5 | 67% | 50% | 61% | 62 |
Indianapolis at New Orleans: Over 45
- Expert voting: 83%. The Saints hit this total by themselves last week, against a better defense than they’ll face with Indy.
- Past performance ratings: 50% for New Orleans, 59% for Indianapolis, for a combined 54%.
- Bet rating: 75.
Seattle at Carolina: Under 48.5
- Expert voting: 76%.
- Past performance ratings: 41% for Carolina, 45% for Seattle, for a combined 43%.
- Bet rating: 67.
Philadelphia at Washington: Under 47.5
- Expert voting: 71%.
- Past performance ratings: 60% for Washington, 55% for Philadelphia, for a combined 58%.
- System play: Divisional games hit the under at a rate of 54.5%, with a p-value of .04, for an expected future success rate of 54%.
- Bet rating: 63.
Baltimore at NY Jets: Under 44.5
- Expert voting: 67%.
- Past performance ratings: 55% for New York, 45% for Baltimore, for a combined 50%.
- System play: Baltimore is favored by 16.5 points. Games with a spread of 10 or more points hit the under at a rate of 61%, with a p-value of .01.
- Bet rating: 62.
Top Moneyline Bets
| Rank | Game | Bet | Expert Voting | Past Performance | Bet Rating |
| 1 | CHI@GB | GB -205 | 87% | 72% | 82 |
| 2 | SEA@CAR | SEA -230 | 88% | 55% | 79 |
| 3 | LAR@DAL | LAR +135 | 79% | 38% | 67 |
Green Bay -205 vs Chicago
- Expert Voting: 87%.
- Past performance ratings: 73% for Green Bay, 71% for facing Chicago, for a combined 72%.
- Bet rating: 82.
Seattle -230 at Carolina
- Expert voting: 88%.
- Past performance ratings: 56% for Seattle, 55% for facing Carolina, for a combined 55%.
- Bet rating: 79.
LA Rams +135 at Dallas
- Expert voting: 79%. After the last two weeks, it feels like the Cowboys might never win a game again. 79% of experts feel it too.
- Past performance ratings: 40% for Los Angeles, 35% for facing Dallas, for a combined 37%.
- Bet rating: 67.
Last Week’s Results
- We were 2-2 against the spread, hitting on PIT -1 and KC +3.5, but missing on DAL -3.5 and JAC +1.5. That brings us to 15-6 (71%) on the season.
- We were 1-2 with totals, hitting DEN@HOU over 41, but missing DET@MIN Over 42.5 and DAL@CHI Under 41. We’re 8-10 (44%) on the season.
- We were 1-2 on moneylines, with KC +145 winning, but SEA -136 and JAC +102 losing, for a net loss of 0.5 units. We are down 4.9 units on 21 bet this season.
Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.